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1/3 shortstack bad turn card 1/3 shortstack bad turn card

11-18-2021 , 02:45 PM
9-handed, I'm in the BB with $100, everybody has me covered by a mile.

4 limpers, SB completes and I check my option with T9o.

$18 in the pot, flop comes JT9r. SB checks.

Betting $15 here seems like a no-brainer, tons of draws and pairs will call. I get 1 caller.
In my head I'm screaming, BABY CARD!!!! BABY CARD!!!! But nope, turn is a K putting 2 of a suit on the board.

$48 in the pot.

Check/fold feels very nitty here, but how often is a 1/3 villain going to run a bluff in a spot like this? How often is he even going to BET something I'm ahead of like AK or KQ, or AJ, AT A9?
Check/call makes no sense for the above reason.
Bet/Folding $30 feels like the right play. I haven't gone through the work to count the combos, but he could call my flop bet with any 8, Q, Jx, Tx, 9x and most Kx. Only a Q, KJ, KT or K9 have pulled ahead of me. The rest of that range is probably still going to call. He's not going to raise me with anything I'm ahead of. If he just calls I re-evaluate on the river.

Thoughts?
1/3 shortstack bad turn card Quote
11-18-2021 , 03:34 PM
At this very small stack size (which people can get in quite wide), I might consider check/shoving the flop. It is likely someone has hit enough to bet, and then we can simply commit ASAP. And if it checks around and a stoopid turn card comes, oh well, we check/fold.

Do you recall what position called your flop bet? The earlier position (where people can't float/call too lightly with the world still to react behind them), the more likely we're simply crushed and can just sigh check/fold. The later position, the more it is possible we might have the best hand. Overall I lean to check/fold; bottom two pair on this board beats very little and overall the population at LLSNL underbluffs (especially if they feel they have little FE against a shortstack).

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 shortstack bad turn card Quote
11-19-2021 , 07:25 PM
GwhatsupdudelongtimenotypeG

I believe the caller was the 3rd limper of the 5, so there were the 2 limpers after him plus the SB between him and me.
1/3 shortstack bad turn card Quote
11-20-2021 , 07:13 AM
Just check/evaluate the turn, most likely fold. Your hand really sucks on this board.
1/3 shortstack bad turn card Quote

      
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