1/3 $500 buyin game

Hero is a LAG 30s wg, and im running hot so the rest of the table thinks im a maniac and has given a lot of action, but V just sat down a few hands ago. Hero ~$1800 deep

Main Villian is middle aged ag, seems splashy and aggressive (has made multiple big bets since sitting down 5 hands ago, and he physically chucks the chips in like the tell on loose aggressive players). He table changed and is $1100 deep


2 limpers, hero raised $15 btn with KTs

Sb main villian calls, 2 limpers call

Flop ($60) KT5r, checks to me, i bet $25, SB raises $90, fold fold, i call

Turn ($240) K he checks, i check(?)

River Q, he bets $200. Hero raises to $500(?), villian jams $1k, hero ?

I'm sorry that he had KQ. Huge pot for 1/3, but I'm not folding. I'd also bet the turn to make it easier to get stacks in against Kx, 55 (TT, K5).

As enticing as it is to fold kings full and be right i feel like you CAN'T fold this hand, if you allow for that possibility you're gonna psych yourself out. He could easily have like TT or 55 or whatever as mentioned above.

Given how you described about V he doesn't seem the type who would slow play trip Ks on the turn.
His action line doesn't make sense to me to be KQ. Max he had would be qq but I suspect he had a hand that's even worse.
Easy call I'd thought.

I'm betting turn but I'm snapping this off as played. Look at it this way: if he had KQ and was going for a double check-raise on the turn, and you got it in then, would you care about the river?

Holy $h**, why did you not raise ag Asian guy on the turn? As others have pointed out, sorry you lost to KQ. But OMG, no, not folding. 500 to call 1940?

Looks like there's a consensus which makes me feel a little better. Yes, spoiler, he had KQ, only way id ask.

1) I checked back turn to try and let AJ QJ get there or bluff river, but i agree completely. I shouldve just bet, he probably calls with AJ QJ anyway

2) maybe i shouldve included, the guy seemed competent splashy, not like a complete maniac.

3) i tanked river for a long time considering just calling the $200. Here was my thought process at the time:

QQ AK wouldve 3! Pre.
KJ- is possible but as someone else put it, what are the odds he checked back a K on the turn? And if he did, can you really see a guy bet/3 betting me with KJ or even 55 here for $1000?
I felt like his range had mostly bluffs, but 0 of them ship over my raise. I was discounting all Kx including KQ KT, but i felt like his shipping range would be KT KQ, so im targeting a very thin number of hands with my raise and exposing myself to the ship that i probably gotta call but im behind his shipping range.


Idk man, i think the turn was an easy bet and seems like everyone agrees, and i agree raise/fold is probably out of the question, but i still feel like its more close than you guys seem to think on a call vs raise/call river. Putting in 333 BBs in on a single street with less than the nuts doesnt seem ideal.

I saw you commenting on my earlier post (QJcc fold at the turn?), yep if you were to fold at the river here it would be much much more difficult.

Your hand including the reveal remind me of another hand I witnessed last week, AJ vs AQ on a AJQAx runout, and similarly the guy holding AQ bet - reraise jam at the river. The actions of either player on any previous streets can be away from the standard play more or less, however what makes me reconsider is that how much percentage of the players at this stake level would do this at the river WITHOUT the nuts.

Do you think he is bet/folding TT or 55, of which there are more total combos than KQ? If so, then you probably don’t want to miss a raise on the river. And I think if he is playing this deceptively on the turn with KQ he is absolutely showing up with any other boat on the river as played.

You should have just bet turn small to play for a big pot.

As played to the river, you have to raise his river bet. It's probably a must call when the 3bet shove is pretty small. If you guys had deeper stacks, there is a case for making a hero fold to a large 3bet shove.

I disagree with this putting in 333 big blinds on river with less than the nuts being not so good.

Villain can definitely have worse hands here that would call a river raise. Just calling river here would be horrible poker.

I mean him calling a raise isnt 333 bbs, thats 115. the raise would gain me EV, for sure, the question is would it gain me more EV than id lose from the 3 bet that i expose myself to and gotta crying call that may follow?

Jamming with 55 because he checked back KQ? Theres a difference between being deceptive and overplaying your hand. Just speaking for myself, I absolutely mightve played KQ just as he did, and theres no way im 3 bet jamming K5 if i had it, much less TT 55 there.

Idk. Maybe you guys are right.

I think there is a chance he might not 3bet a lower boat but he could bet/call one which means you should not miss the initial raise.

Also you might’ve check/raised KQ on the flop only to slow down when you turned trips?

Hard to put an aggro V on KQ when he x/r's flop after not 3B'ing pre. Maybe he might sometimes donk lead with KQ or other weak Kx, to see where he's at, rather than check-raising.

His x/r screams bottom set or top 2, which you heavily block, so I'd mostly be putting him on bottom set, or occasionally an over-played Kx, or maybe some AT with a bdfd or QJ as a bluff.

Surprised he checks turn with anything in his flop x/r range, and now I'd be wondering if he was indeed way out of line with AT or QJ. We must bet the turn, and bet huge, to get value from 55, worse Kx, and all his bluff draws.

Honestly, I'm often too chicken shlt to raise river in spots like this. He's repping KQ, but his flat-x/r-check-bet line doesn't make a ton of sense, and feels weird-bluffy, in a spot where he shouldn't have any bluffs.

Then again, maybe he checked turn worried you were boated up already, or just had him out kicked? Still - we're supposed to think he flatted from OOP pre, x/r'd flop, and then checked turn when he improves to trips, and blocks our better Kx combos? Really? C'mon.

I'm not sure what we can get value from with a raise here, other than 55, and I'd think 55 would barrel turn, because how much KT do we really have here, and check-call river, because we have all the top boats and top trips in our range that want to bet.

So, kudos to you for putting in the raise I would rarely consider. Big balls you got there.

His jam is gross, and why I don't find your raise often enough. I'd never 3B jam over your raise without the nuts, but, again, I'm chicken-shlt. If he's bluffing or doing this for value with a worse hand, after taking this line, he's a total psycho.

Even getting these pot odds, I don't know how we can call.

ETA - I didn't consider he could have TT, but... flatting pre in the SB, and then going x/r-check-bet-3B jam??? C'mon. I mean, why not give him QQ then?

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Grunch: Bet the turn. All day, every day. As played, sigh call vs. described V.

Just saw results: If you bet turn, it's probably going in anyway. It's just a cooler -- a really bad one

Turn I would bet to get stacks in easier on river. AJ is just not going to get raised much on the flop.

River seems like a fairly standard value raise. But I think we should just jam, because you beat 55, TT, which is 4 combos that don’t fold, lose to KQ which is 3 combos. And occasionally AJ and even AK, KJ, K9 are likely calling. I see it pretty often. The thing is, we aren't folding this river for 500 more, and we probably beat most of the combos that call us and are not as likely to raise. So you're kind of reverse freerolling him on the last 500. We only have to win 22% of the time to break even on a call though for the last 500 and I think the population of villain as described can overvalue TT or 55 here often enough that I would call off.

I agree with betting turn but the problem is betting once you've been x/r on flop is super nutted. H's range is like AK/KQ and boats. Checking back gives QJ a chance to hit and get stacked.

People aren't bluff raising the flop enough open enders or gutshots on the flop. They aren't bluffing enough when they miss on the river. And they aren't hitting the river often enough. So build the pot now to stack Kx on the river.

No necessarily true because of giving them an opportunity to bluff 3 bet, but i did the math here and seems like youre right, but its real close

If he calls with 6 combos (tt 55) i win $300 there. If he ships with 3 combos of value (KQ) the 2 combos of chop (KT) and enough to make me indifferent (a little less than 1 combo), then id lose $300 with ~5.8 combos or whatever, and earn a tiny sliver of money. Could be better for me if he ever shows up with K5 AK KJ. Of course if hes never 3 betting river with worse than KT i made a poor play calling the 3 bet and lost money.

For sure. If youre check raising the flop with holdings as weak as 1 pair, you basically gotta be check raising as a bluff, which means you gotta have a checking range, which means you gotta slowplay. you need to slowplay at least some of your Kx hands, you cant only slowplay full houses.

Im not saying balance matters at low stakes, but against a thinking player I tend to do the opposite of population tendencies, because a good player who check raises flop and checks turn is usually bluffing or on a weak draw, so a different good player will often bet for value on turns that are checked to them.

1. It's not 6 combos, it's 4 since you block TT, but at the same time, you could also just jam river instead of raise/call, as someone suggested earlier. This is not a hand I'm comfortable raise/folding, so jamming makes a lot of sense because of the reverse-freeroll argument.

2. Assigning ranges to your opponents based on what you would do is always a leak, but in this particular case, if you think it makes sense for Villain to check/raise top pair and then play deceptively with trips, your turn check back is even worse than it first appears, since if he doesn't boat up he might bet/fold or check/call river. (And if he bet/calls trips on the river, then you REALLY can't miss the river raise!)

On #1 oh yeah. And ugh, i guess maybe jamming is the move, its 1.5x pot, seems so strong only 55 or better call, but i guess that would be thin value, and maybe AJ KJ calls who knows.

On #2 yeah, i think my turn check was terrible. I think he has a lot of bluffs in his range, but with how deep we are, i need to try and get stacks in vs his value, not get him to lose another bet with his bluffs. If i has bet turn and gotten stacked on river i wouldnt have thought twice about my play haha. Its about getting SPR of 4 in on this street.

And yeah im not gonna try and put a guy on my range, but im also thinking LAG which was sorta what i put him as. Theres a million flavors of that style of play, and he had just sat down, so I really had no clue if he checks Ks, but i thought he COULD, because I might myself.

Pot will be 640 if you call, jamming 800 on top of the 200 bet is only 1.25x pot. 800 for him to call and pot will be 2,240 if he calls, so he only needs to be good 35.7% of the time to call. And people really tend not to fold boats.

Also, it may seem crazy that he would call Kx here, but I have seen recs do insane things. For example, I had a hand where a lady bet 250 into 230 on the river with the best trips combo and called off a jam for 3.2k. With top boat, I only expected to get called by weaker boats:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...95/?highlight=

Huge value bets don't need to get called that often to be profitable.

Checking turn can also look super-nutted, arguably more nutted than betting, when we have a lot of Kx that wants to bet for value and protection when V checks turn, looking like he has QJ and is giving up now.

I don't think QJ ever gets stacked the ~16% of the time he catches up with an A or 9, unless V is absolutely terrible.

How often is QJ going to jam or call a jam when we could have been trapping turn with KT, and now AK or K9 are also boats? He can only target KQ/KJ for value. If he bets, it'll probably be small, and he'll rarely if ever call off a jam.

The other 84% of the time, the river will brick, and QJ may or may not bluff. After we call his flop x/r, he'll probably just check-fold.

V may not thin-value-bet KQ/KJ/K9 on a brick, because we could have AK/KQ/KT. He'll probably just check-call, not check-raise, and never bet-call if we raise. V will definitely bet KQ/KJ when he boats up about 8% of the time, and we'll lose a lot. There's also about a 4% chance the river will be another T, and we'll chop with any Kx.

So checking turn is giving KQ/KJ a free roll to win our whole stack 8% of the time. The 16% of the time he makes a straight with QJ, he's probably not giving us his whole stack. And we're letting all his Kx free-roll to a chop 4% of the time.

Most often, the river will be a brick, and V will just check-fold all his QJ, and some of his KQ/KJ/K9, and we'll have lost value by trying to trap instead of just betting turn.

V probably wouldn't fold Kx to a turn bet, and may not fold QJ all the time. He might fold at some low frequency, after we call his flop x/r, but he'll rarely check-raise again. If he does check-raise, that would be awesome.

Seems like a turn bet is mandatory here.