Villain (BB): obese MAWG, 4 bet shoved 96s for $200 earlier vs me, a bit aggro and splashy (covers)
Hero (HJ): late 20s Asian guy, SUPER nit image; played one hand in last hour ($300)

Folded to hero in HJ. CO looks ready to muck. Hero makes it $12 with QT. Both blinds call including villain in BB.

Flop: 976($33)

Checked to hero. Hero bets $20. SB folds, villain calls.

Turn: 4 ($71)

Checked to hero. Hero bets $45. Villain calls.

River: Q ($161)

Villain leads $40. Hero ???

I was planning to triple barrel pretty much any card that's 2-4, J+ and obviously an 8. I think given the fact that I've played one hand in the last hour and even said "don't worry guys, I'll play a hand eventually" to draw attention to it in case someone's not paying attention, I can get credit for a big hand. Plus, if an aggro villain doesn't raise me on flop or turn, he probably has a pair plus straight draw. I'm fine with him not folding flop and turn to put in a lot of money for this river spot, especially since I have up to 10 outs. Him being obese matters - obese people tend to be lazy and undisciplined which translates to loose AF preflop. This means all offsuit connectors and one gappers probably being in his range.

When villain leads for 1/4 pot on an overcard and the front door flush coming in, seems very much like a pair + straight draw that wants a cheap showdown. Question is how much to raise (with the intention to fold of course if he shoves).

EDIT: let's pretend the river was K instead and he leads $40 also. Are we shoving to force a fold as opposed to raising smaller to price in a call (clearly being maximally exploitative and not giving any ****s about balance vs this villain).

id fold pre unless im subtly tilting. wouldnt bet this flop into 2 players either as you're committing yourself to 3 barrel alot, doesnt seem worth it

I agree with your read that it could very easily be pair + draw that's betting $40 as a "blocking bet" to get to a cheap showdown. That said, I don't see a lot of value in raising. This seems like a clear call to me.

If he has like 98s here which seems about right, I don't think he's calling your raise. He's either folding or bluff shoving all-in. You want that action with your hand? I don't think so.

Why not take your showdown value with top pair weak kicker in a bloated pot? Your hand is overrepped already so raising is only going to make it more likely that hands you beat fold and you only get snapped off by the nuts. Winning is $200+ pot with top pair weak kicker ain't a bad thing, don't get greedy, this value is way too thin imo.

Call. No point turning our hand into a bluff which is what we will be doing with a raise in this spot as we're never getting called by worse. So there's no thin value to be gained here, and plenty of showdown value to lose.

Crying call river. He can't lose all of his food money.

Lol.

Raising here would be a mega spew...he will fold all worse and shove all better so it is about as -EV as you can get.

I do not think you can raise the river here , call and be happy to hit that river card , you can only beat missed straight draws which means there is no reason to raise here , would he ever bet worse than a queen into you ? And if he is capable of 4 bet bluffing , then all the more reason to just flat his river call, his sizing is weird on the river imo , also your comment : "Him being obese matters - obese people tend to be lazy and undisciplined which translates to loose AF preflop. " I don't think you should be saying this in public as it's quite wrong imo

I actually had a pretty big sample size online, and QTo opening from CO was basically breakeven/super slightly -EV. Live I think the open is fine, players are bad enough and aren't 3-betting near enough to make your life miserable. Should be slightly +EV if you are good postflop. Plus, even if it is breakeven, you should be opening those hands so you can get more action on your real hands.

OTF seems fine, live players arent raising enough bluffs here but i rarely ever expect this c-bet to work. I think it's fine because we are IP and get to almost always see a free river this way.

Turn is the nut worst card to bluff on, no one cares you havent played a hand in the past hour. They are literally folding 0% of their range on the turn.

River i'd cry call.

You shouldn't really be 3-barreling many bluffs on this board, especially vs fish. Barreling blanks otr (2-4) is pretty bad, all straight draws and both flush draws miss. same reasoning for J/K.

Well I certainly won't say that to someone's face. But since this is an online poker forum where we are trying to gather information about villains either by looks or their actions, I think it's appropriate especially since it's not directed to anyone in particular.

This is obviously controversial, but I firmly believe that there is a correlation between someone's weight and their level of discipline. Sometimes it's out of their control because of genetics, disease or whatever, but otherwise what's someone's excuse for being obese? Clearly just not having the discipline to eat somewhat healthy and exercise more than once a month. Even working full time and having kids, if someone's health is important to them and they are disciplined they will squeeze out 10 or 15 minutes a day to exercise in addition to eating less fried chicken. It really takes minimal effort to not be obese. It just takes discipline.

Maybe I'm being a little self-righteous, but that's just how I see it. And at the poker table, that lack of discipline translates to playing way too loose preflop. That's what I've noticed over the years and whenever I first sit down at a table full of unknowns I try to avoid being on the right of an obese player for that specific reason, as weird as that sounds.

I wasn't expecting too many folds on the turn. I was more hoping to build a pot where I can either get there or steal on the river. As part of that plan, I wasn't expecting too many raises on the turn either since he flatted such a wet and dynamic flop. I feel like straight draws completing is way better for villain's range than mine since I'm gonna have more overpairs and villain's gonna have more pair plus straight draws. 2-4 is more borderline but for sure J+ is a green light cause they'd have to call second, third or fourth pair.