Villain (BB): 20s middle eastern guy, TAG and wearing shades so probably a try hard ($250)
Hero (MP): late 20s Asian guy, TAG image, haven't been caught getting out of line (covers)

One limper. Hero makes it $18 in MP with J9. Folded back to villain who calls in BB. Limper folds.

Flop: AJ5 ($36)

Checked through.

Turn: 8 ($36)

Villain bets $21. Hero calls.

River: T ($77)

Villain bets $25. Hero ???

Looks like a weak A or a J trying to get some thin value. Don't think it's a bluff with that sizing. I don't think I'm good here. However a bunch of plausible straights and two pairs just came in. And I also don't think it's anything stronger than A9 with that sizing. Raise?

If you raise you're repping pretty thin, basically sets only with 88/TT being most likely. KQ I would think bets the flop fairly often so I would discount it(not that villain is even thinking this way).

Villain's range by river is heavily Ax and I don't try to bluff people off of TP especially when I've played a fairly passive line.

And I feel these days people tend to call more as it is, so I find less bluffs.

The problem you have with bluffing is you are a He's going to be less inclined than normal to fold. Unless I know the villain can lay down TP, I don't try to push him off TP. Most of the time (not all) he'll hem, ha, then say, "I guess I have to pay you off" and call.

Not too sure a try hard is going to fold here, even if his ranged is capped. Unless you think he is good enough to fold top pair. I find the more fancy plays that are made at 200NL nd 300NL the more edge you are giving away to the worse players.

+1

Plus you’re asian. Dont try to bluff KJ/Ax here

Yeah I dunno why I bluff rivers. Flops and turns at least I have equity and there's the threat of future bets. This particular instance worked but maybe I should just tone it down. People love calling when they are guaranteed a showdown.

Yeah just really depends on your image. If you're labeled as the table nit you can get away with murder bluff raising these small capped bets. If you seem laggy and been raising a lot pre compared to the rest of the table then ppl lose their fold button to you on turns and rivers.

I put him on an ace here, 25 may be a blocker bet or it could be he thinks you missed and have nothing. I would not bluff here at this limit.

I find this spot a very good one to bluff. Villain bets 1/2 pot (ish) on the turn and then almost the same amount on the river. Making a pot sized raise looks very big and need to work 50% of the time to be profitable. It has definitely worked more than that for me. Since I started keeping track, Ive gotten 75% folds in similar spots.

In this hand getting a fold 75% of the time results in just over $50 profit (per attempt). That's a massive profit as a bluff.

Raise river to $100.

if villan is TP I agree.
this small river bet fear based not value based

Flop is relatively dry, so checking back AQ+ is not of the question imho, especially vs. this type of V. 2-pr likely values higher OTR after your turn call. Nice play.

Fwiw, I’d cbet flop with MP+backdoor, ip.

Why aren't we betting this flop??

Cause we have middle pair (or as the Upswing guys call it, a category 2 hand).

Your table plays different from mine if a raise in MP after a limper somehow gets this HU in position (a great result). I would fold preflop at my table.

I would probably bet the flop. Our hand could be good and yet it's vulnerable, and it'll likely setup a turn free card play if called. I'd bet like $15.

Were we checking back the flop to induce? If so, I don't hate that, and also call the turn.

You're kinda repping just KQ with a river raise. Would KQ check back the flop? Do you have enough history with this guy that you know he has a fold button against you? If he's trying hard, his most likely worse one pair Aces are AK/AQ. Meh.

GimoG

And? We were the PFR, are HU, IP, and this flop smashed our perceived range no matter what our actual hand is. Not betting here announces to V that we don't have an Ace, so anyone competent can make our life hell for the rest of the hand.

Just bet next time. Will win you more $ long term and save you a lot of grief as well.

BTW, AP a raise OTR is a massive overplay. Why turn your medium strength showdown hand into a bluff when you really have zero idea where Villain is (and incidentally, if you bet the flop, by the river you will have a better idea).

Yeah this is where I am as well. Anytime I see a "good spot for a bluff" title here, it meets solid disapproval on this forum.

While we do make most of our money in LLNL on value, it doesn't mean we should put our head in the sand when a decent bluff opportunity arises.

What in God's name are we repping with a river raise? Our line makes little sense as the only draws that came in were Q9 and KQ which we likely wouldn't call the turn bet with. Are we really slowplaying AA/JJ/AJ in this fashion (check flop/flat turn)? Only sets that we MAYBE can have are 88 and TT, one of which we raise the turn with almost always and the other we fold the turn with almost always.

If I am V here I snap this off really wide because it just isn't a value line at all.

I am also on board the bluff train. V is showing weakness and we can absolutely have a big hand. That includes all the sets and tons of two pairs. You don't rep many busted draws either. I often check this board back with all flopped two pairs, pockets, tops pairs, etc as part of my overall strategy.

Shorn I am definitely slowplaying the sets and two pairs on this flop and flatting turn. We would have the board locked up quite a bit and want to encourage bluffs and catch ups from way behind holdings.

This is really absurd. Being asian doesn't affect what is and isn't a balanced poker strategy.

EZ to say but doubt you really do it. Only leaves you with the river to win a big pot with a nut hand. And if you actually DO play your sets this way, then you are losing way more value than you are winning by having this bluff be a balanced line IMHO. You simply can't get V to put in $211 (his remaining stack) on this river without the absolute top of his value range, so you must play either the flop or turn differently in order to get value from those hands.

In a vacuum sure, his river bet looks suspect because of his sizing. But the problem is that we really have no idea what he holds here given we have played the hand so soft after raising pre. So raising here with so little information is just rolling dice.

Playing balanced at 1/3 is a total waste of time and $$....literally NO ONE is paying that much attention. You are just costing yourself $.

Nah I do it and then I raise rivers with big hands and air. It's a good way to play my man.

I don't agree. Key to winning $ at these levels is building pots with value hands so that V's feel compelled to call when they shouldn't. Playing passive until the river and then waking up will get way more folds than you want when you have a value hand.

So which one is it? First it was V will snap call the raise with any Ax. Now it’s waiting until the river to raise will get too many folds. Can’t have it both ways.

Nobody is suggesting to play passive until the river. If I check flop and bet turn and river I get two streets. That's probably all you're getting from a single pair of aces (whether you bet flop or not). Unless you think you can get three but that doesn't happen often.

In fact I think you can get called down lighter going c,b,b compared to b,b,c. I would expect nitregs or badregs to actually get away from TPNK to the second turn barrel knowing they can face a third and not know what to do.

There are a bunch of other merits to checking flop often in this spot with respect to playing a balanced range, case in point this bluff spot where you can steal it credibly.