Monday night at Rivers Casino around 10PM. Table has been very good for Hero, sitting with ~800. 80% of pots are going single raised to flop. Gambly player has been relatively active causing this dynamic, however he is not involved in this one. Hero is 21 wearing blue under armor sweatshirt and has been playing solid. Also listening to music.
OTTH

Folds to hero in HJ w QQ (800) and opens to 12. (16)

VIL1 CO (200)- call. (28)- Late 20's middle easter, not very good at analyzing relative hand strength and has busted 1 bullet.

VIL2 BTN (270)-call. (40)-this guy calls almost anything that isnt too large pre. Busted 1 bullet.

VIL3 SB (340)-3! to 35 (74) - White Mid 40s, beer belly, has not 3! any hands, sat down for maybe an hr. Passive player.

VIl4 BB (300)-Cold calls 3! (111)-White mid 20s. Has lost 1 bullet at this junction to the loose guy in intro after loose guy turned a set. Hero won 1st big big after openining and calling 3! and ck/raising all in on 985ss flop vs his cbet.

I'm putting VIL3 on QQ+ and VIl4 on AK+/TT+
I end up folding because I can't imagine knowing where I'm at in a super bloated pot on any flop, with or without A or K.

If we call, pot is likely to be somewhere around 150 going to flop and we're going to be put to some very difficult decisions when we don't hit a set. Combinatorics became my logic for folding.

Curious as to the thoughts of 2p2. Thanks

Mario

If you're putting the 3 better on QQ+ (to which you're holding QQ, so that's limiting Q combos), I'm finding a fold with multiple action behind me. What are you beating in his (V3) range?

that's what it came down to for me. Perhaps the argument for this thread is two fold: does he always have us beat and should we setmine?

that 3b is so tiny with the callers behind you. i don't think i could resist calling just to bink a Q and stack someone


so, 23 to win 127 or so? if we need to make 8x this call to break even (ish), we're already more than halfway there. will we be able to get 50 more or so out of one player if it goes 4-ways to the flop? you bet. i'll calling just to set mine, and if its a slight EV leak i can live with it. you should probably say 'lets gamble' or something when calling

if you can't resist getting sucked in when you flop an overpair, fold is probably best course of action

the two next deepest stacks at the table are both in already, and the two villians yet to act aren't gonna re-pop it. i'm feeling good about our IO if we hit here, although wish they were a little deeper

Seems like fine spot to take a flop based on our read.

Annoying spot. Folding QQ to a 3b is just bad though in this spot. 1 hour sample on Vil 3 is not big enough for us to assume he's only 3betting KK+.

Call pre and chances are CO and BTN will come in as well. If you get a 223r flop and villain cbets any reasonable amount, I'd fold. If pot is ~150-180ish and villain cbets 40 or something, obv peeling is good. OTF but folding to a jam on brick rivers if he continues.

Obv we're out on a A or K high flop as well.

Easy call pre given direct odds plus implied against V4, plus we have position.

pretty trivial call preflop. We're getting 5:1, not facing a cold 5b of 111 (the format threw me off at first too)

It is okay to call preflop with great pot odds and fold tp or even an overpair to flop action. Though even purely setminibg in this spot is profitable.

Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way because I think there are minimal implied odds.

Breaking it down:
IF an A flops and VIL3 has anything other than AK/AA he will not invest anymore unless he shows up with TT/JJ and hits a set. We fold in these scenarios unless Q hits. Rarely do we set over set. an A hits the flop 12% of the time.

IF a K flops and VIL3 has anything other than AK/KK/AA he will not invest anymore unless he shows up with TT/JJ and hits a set. We fold in these scenarios unless Q hits. Rarely do we set over set. a K hits the flop 12% of the time.

If a Q flops I speculate we win a stack somewhere around 90% unless he has AK and whiffs or an underpair and whiffs (rare)

On all other scenarios of flops VIL 3 is going to bet/call all-in on when we are likely beat (giving credit for AA/KK/unlikely sets) or check/fold when missed (AK)

I can't imagine him cbetting with AK multiway expecting folds.

So if we have minimal implied odds on VIL 3, do we have any odds on VIL4? Sometimes. He probably is looking to setmine or have AK. against AK we are a big favorite to out flop him (+75% of the time) however he will fold always when it is checked to us and he has AK. And I assume he will not show up with KK or AA and not 4!

If VIL 4 bets out on any flop, I think we fold unimproved always.

This is the way I looked at the hand. I can see the great direct odds and implied odds making this a slightly profitable peel at a Q, but I'm really not convinced it's a horrid mistake given the ranges and how bad QQ will play post flop.

you are overthinking this

in your next sessions, i want you to make a note of every 3bet pot that goes to a flop. count how many get checked to showdown. i reckon its less than 10%. ranges are stronger, the bloated pot is an attractive a target to stab at even with high cards, and a small SPR makes it hard not to call some hands you'd fold deeper

if, in fact, all the 3bet pots in your room are checked to showdown, how can we possibly exploit this?

If we're assuming V3 is playing his hand face up as almost AA/KK, then I think this is a pretty straightforward call preflop and setmine. Assuming the other two call behind us (are they really going to flat/reraise after all this action, and are they really going to fold for just another $23 more with all these callers, "pot odds!"), we'll already be getting terrific preflop odds of 6.6:1 (almost immediate setmining odds). If we hit a set, we make huge money postflop in most cases. We just have to be disciplined in folding if V3 donks into our overpair on the flop.

ETA: We have huge implied odds most of the time when we flop a set. If V3 has what we think he has (AA/KK) and we flop a Q, so long as the other two cards are smaller than a Q, he's going broke every time in a pot this big. About the only flop we don't stack AA/KK is on a AQx flop vs KK (and admittedly we'll be in gross spots on the rare AQx and KQx flops). Most Qxx flops are great for us and we get paid off.

ETA#2: And, if I've done my math correct above, we're *almost* getting setmining odds out of the gate if we expect the other 2 behind us to call (a reasonable assumption?).

GcluelessNLnoobG

your raise sizing pre is small and therefore can induce some very weird situations. they might have the nuts but it might also be a terribly sized squeeze either way you're getting a great price to call and set mine.

you have to ask yourself would you call with any pp here getting 4/1 preflop to set mine? the answer should be an immediate yes. the reason you didn't call i'm assuming is if the flop came 442 then you feel you would have to stack off with QQ but you made a read so trust your read and fold even if the flop bricks out.

Call to mine and take stacks if you hit.

+1 this is a trivial call w 22+ w implied odds and position. The only parts of your opening range you should be folding getting this price, and w a decent stacks behind and position are things like KQ and AJo that have terrible RIO. Qq has not only showdown value against a good part of their combined ranges but also setmine value. Definitely seeing a flop at a minimum. Folding here is a fundamental error on a couple levels that seem to be getting explained pretty well already

Couldn't have elaborated this out better myself. I should be more conscious of the fact that my hand's intrinsic value (moderate overpair) is no longer what im playing in this hand. I'm simply mining for a moderate set with my read and should play as such.