Background: Big blind has been playing 1/3 for over a year. Only other info is he tried to trap me in a heads up 3 bet pot when he had QQ flopped top set and turned boat which checked all the way down.

1/3 I have QdQh in early position and make it $12. SB is a recreational player with $150 behind, he calls. BB calls, he covers me $500 effective.
Flop is Td8d5s SB leads on the flop for 15. BB calls after only a second or two. I decide to raise to $65. SB calls and BB calls.
Turn is 9c: Td8d5s9c. ~$220 in the pot. SB checks and BB goes all in for $400. Hero?

My noob analysis: A set probably would have raised on the flop as he would have been concerned about the flush draw with 2 other players. This makes me think he has QJ (8 combos), 76 (4-16 combos if he plays 76o from the big blind), 98 (9 combos), or T9 (9 combos). It would be very odd for him to be turning a flush draw into a bluff on such a bad card, unless he has a flush draw containing the Jd or 7d, we block some by having Qd in our hand. He could have AdJd, KdJd, Ad7d, Kd7d for turned combo draw bluffs. I know he has been playing for at least a year unless he took a break so he is probably a slightly profitable regular at 1/3.

On the flop, I’d make it $65 with just the donk without the bb caller. Should make it $80+. As played, fold

How do you choose the sizing here? Is it 3x last bet + any other money in the pot (use 4x last bet instead when out of position)? That would be 15* 3 + 15 + 33 = 93?

I limp in but that's my style. But we somehow managed to get narrow the field to 3ways, in position, and having good SPRs (fairly comfortably committed against the shortstack / lottsa room to play against the deepstack) for just a 4x raise (so nice result if expected).

If the BB hadda folded to the SB flop donk then I woulda been cool with raising to commit (because we are fairly comfortably committed against the SB shortstack). However, with the BB in the mix (and not wanting to commit against him), I'm not looking to build a huge pot here. So I just call in position and see what happens.

I think we would have been in a very tricky spot on the turn had we not faced the all-in. But I just fold to this bet. It's multiway and I doubt the BB thinks he has much FE against the shortstack SB at this point so this should rarely be a semi-bluff, and he'd have to be fairly clueless to think a TP hand is worth a shove against our massive show of strength so far. Plus we're getting a horrendous price thanks to the 2x overbet.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This is an easy fold. Looks like he's at least got 2 pair maybe a set or straight (we're crushed no matter how you look at it).

The raise sizing otf isn't always standard like it is pre, it depends on our goals (are we trying to get money in, or are we folding if someone raises) and the opponent's stacks. I think 65 was fine here though (flatting is also fine too if we think he's donking out with more value than weaker hands or draws).

Postflop don't think about your bets in terms of times last bet, think about it in terms of % of pot. The way you do that when raising a bet is to calculate the pot if you call and then figure out how much to raise after that. If you call the flop bet, pot will be $81 (not counting any rake), so your raise is 50 on top of that, or 62% pot. How much you want to raise should be a function of how polar you want your range to be. Your hand isn't that nutted for a multiway pot. You block some diamond draws. You might consider going on the smaller size TBH. $45 would be a 1/3 pot raise rounded up, which I think might be a reasonable size. If you had bottom or middle set or a draw you wanted to raise as a bluff (IE, more polar), I would be more inclined to raise larger. However, you need to have some bluffs you use for smaller sizing as well. Honestly, just calling would not be that bad either. Again, your hand is not that nutted for a multiway pot. Pot control is not terrible, and having a diamond makes you a little less worried about the flush getting there.

On the turn, I don't like calling overbets at these stakes without some confirmation that villains can have bluffs in these spots. The fact villain tried to trap top set turned boat vs you makes me want to believe a little bit that he might be bluffing here, but top set is the quintessential trap hand, and top doesn't need protection. So I wouldn't assume he plays all his value hands as traps. This board is very dynamic, so if he hit a straight or 2 pair, he may feel like getting protection here.

The turn shows part of the problem with raising flop. So many cards are terrible for your range now. I don't think you are raising T9 on the flop. You might sometimes raise 7d6d or QdJd as a semi bluff on the flop. Maybe you have a set here, but you have to okay those hands consistent, raising for the same size you would raise a hand like QQ.

This is why I feel a little better check calling flop. Then you can have T9, QdJd, and maybe you also protect your flop call range with top set specifically.

As played, without good reads on villain giving us reason to do otherwise, I would fold our hand and call 2 pair or better (more likely sets or better since we probably don't have 2 pair).

I mostly attempt to offer particular odds when I raise. I use the following formula I came up:

P = current pot size (including all bets put before it gets to me)
B = the opponent's bet size
N = the odds we want to offer (i.e. N:1)
Bet = the total amount we need to bet

Bet = (P + (B * N)) / (N - 1)

This equation simplifies when wanting to offer 2:1 (which is typically what I want to do) to:

Bet = P + (B * N)

But that's just the formula for offering desired odds. Sometimes, such as when you have the nuts and are just looking to raise an amount to get stacks in, it is more about just kinda haphazardly getting a feel for what your opponent won't fold to on the flop which will also allow stacks to get in easily enough on a later street.

GcluelessNLnoobG