Villain (SB): 50s white guy, loose passive, never 3 bet before (covers)
Hero (HJ): late 20s Asian guy, TAG image ($400)

Hero opens $12 with 77 in HJ. BTN calls. SB squeezes to $30. Hero calls. BTN folds.

Flop: 654 ($70)

Villain bets $40. Hero ???

Villain has an OP almost always here. I can call and take a turn, but raising a brick is less credible since I flatted a super wet flop. And if he bets big I might have to fold since implied odds are not good (if I hit one of my 10 outs it's a super scary board). If I raise, he might give me credit for a hand that beats him especially since I haven't been out of line yet. Or he might station it off and I have to check back a brick turn.

PF - WP. Also that's a terrible squeeze from SB, I can't emphasis enough how bad that sizing is, wow.

F - I like the raise here. FE (this flop smashes a late opening range) should be pretty decent. If he flats, I'm likely checking back turns unimproved and taking a free river. If he repops, I might just GII here, as your line would look incredibly strong and you likely have 10 clean outs even if he comes along. Honestly, your analysis of what happens if you raise are exactly the reasons I like raising. Make it 140, never fold, and get ready to ship any street you hit.

I think it's fine either way OTF. Kinda prefer a raise b/c we apply max pressure on a board and runout that he will likely be unable to call down with JJ+.

You have a major range advantage here, especially when you Xr. You can have all sets and 2p, 78s, etc.

Meh, nobody @ 1/3 esp a mawg is folding an overpair to you here

stacks arent deep enough to raise flop & expect many folds ott

Call, see what materializes ott

Call. Wait until ’s if you decide to bluff.

I love a big bet/shove in these situations, but unfortunately we're too deep for that here. Call here and don't be afraid to represent the flush if a spade hits also.

Not sure raising into a passive players over pair is ever going to generate much FE. Call and look to mash chips in if you hit.

I lean towards just folding flop if he is as nitty as he sounds. You had a great spot to setmine, you just missed.

He's probably never folding to a raise, but if you hit your hand he might fold to even a smallish bet. If you're gonna call and bluff spade turns be prepared to fire big 2x, if he has A/Ks he's not folding turn.

You just take 33-77, 87 and combo+FDs and AA you can slow play pre, and overbet jam flop.

Or fold.

I have 10 clean outs cause if the spade hits I lose to only AKss. Never folding to a 1/2 pot bet in position.

I don't think shoving flop maximizes my fold equity. Sure it looks scary, but a lot of LLSNL villains are just gonna be like "well I have an overpair on a board with a flush draw, he can have a flush draw". Where as if I raise, I can spread out the fold equity over two streets and give him two chances to fold, especially if the board gets scary.

We don’t need to be balanced just for the sake of balance. If villain is never folding than we can play super exploitatively and raise for value when we have it and call to hit our 18 real and phantom outs when we have a hand like 77.

Not a balance thing, you just can't ckc flop bc you cant make money on turned 4 liners especially when 3 of them complete a flush nor can you withstand another bet on a brick. You can however, take this hand along with all the value, jam, and not GAF what the nit does OR fold it and do what you said with hands >OP.

We’re not x/c we are IP..

Yea my bad, but it actually makes me want to raise huge more now bc he cannot be allowed to get away with betting flop because those phantom outs won't produce the folds you want when his OPs have a spade and sometimes when they don't. You can also choose to alter your flop raise sizing when you have it too on the non-rainbow board and he'll never know the difference.

Not battling for the sake of battling either. I really don't have many IP flop raises in this game ever, but this is one of the 100% raise spots for the reasons listed. It's the only way to stack an OP and sometimes you steal the $110.

If I thought there was a chance at winning the $110 than I’d be on board with raising, especially with the 7, but I’m not trying to raise/GII with 40% when I see this as a 0FE spot.

We’ve also got better raising combos like 76s/75s which have 3 extra outs a piece. Obviously 76 is a monster.

Idk why people are suggesting to bluff/semibluff A loose passive player. You're just piling in money behind with miniscule fold equity. Call flop, play it straightforward as if you're drawing without FE, because that's what this is.

+1

your FE is not there

call or fold

I like this. You can hit your draw and bluff another. What you don't want is to raise and GII vs QQ+ right now. Call, hope for a spade and then when V checks, bomb.

Preflop is either/or first time for me. I'm also calling the 3bet against what looks like a face up hand in position as I'm assuming our IO should be fairly decent.

I think I would mostly lean to a raise on the flop, although it would help if we knew he had a fold button. Kinda tougher if we're young plus Asian, but if we haven't gotten out-of-line yet. We have good equity against his overpairs, so even raising and getting called isn't the end of the world; he'll fold some percentage of the time (especially whiffed AK). And if he calls we'll have some turn options (perhaps even repping scare cards that miss us). If we call, our IO suck on what will be a four-to-a-straight (and possibly 3-to-a-flush) board and we might not be able to see a river as much if he sizes good.

ETA: While I agree with others that our FE isn't massive, we still have *some* FE, it's like never 0% even against overpairs (and some of the time we're against AK/etc. where we should have massive FE). And how often is this guy going to jam to a flop raise? Most times they sigh call and see what happens. So we are often given the choice of taking a free card on the turn if we decide to take one. I certainly don't hate calling (especially to rep the flush), but I think I'd rather take that line with hands that have better IO.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Awesome discussion in this one.

I think this is a spot where you can either raise now or raise later and find a profit. I prefer to play more conservatively so I'm calling flop.

Love the idea of taking the lead if he checks a turn