Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
Bet what a King or FD would call. Shoving accomplishes zero.
This is such a poor response that I feel obligated to say something.
First of all, Kx has exactly 2 outs to beat our hand: 4% or 22:1 dog.
Flush draw has 9 outs and approximately 20% equity or 4:1 dog.
If we are targeting a range with only these two hands and we have no indication of which hands villain has (not to mention that flush draw dominates Kx in combinations) nor his tendency to bluff river, anything we bet that would price in flush draw is essentially more damaging than keeping Kx in V's calling range.
Plus you have to keep in mind, Kx has already paid good money for his mistake by calling flop, anything we charge now would be icing on the cake but at the expense of making us vulnerable against flush draw.
Pot is $280 and effective is $170.
So if we bet $100, we are offering 380:100, meaning that villain is very close to breaking even to call. With $70 behind, I doubt hero is folding given 550:70 odds, thus V is actually getting 450:100 with implied odds, a +EV call.
Bottom line, there is only one bet to make if we think V has Kx or flush draw.