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1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep 1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep

08-07-2018 , 10:52 PM
1/3, weeknight.
Two limpers in EP.
Hero (MP, $380) raises to $22 with two red queens.
Villain A (50yo WM, 25/12, $400) calls in CO. VillainA is a player best described as "just okay". Centre of the spectrum, probably beeakeven at these stakes.
Villain B (50yo AM, 35/5 fish, $900) calls after limping.

Hero's image is on tilt. Just lost $120 folding to a preflop shove from VillainB after 4-betting with JJ against the table maniac. Been getting multiple bad beats before that and way down.

Hero has made one value bet in four hours. He has made a few sucecssful medium sized bluffs, hasn't been caught yet.

Flop (3 players, $70): Jc 9c 3s

Villain B checks
Hero bets $45
Villain A raises to $155

Can Hero continue?
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote
08-08-2018 , 01:06 AM
With your table image, this draw-heavy flop, and your stack size it's an easy GII.
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote
08-08-2018 , 04:15 AM
Don't be so quick to think opponents are "playing back at you". This type of V is rarely going to do anything different to play outside his comfort zone. I would fold and give him credit for a set, J9, or a slowplayed AA/KK. We are flipping with his semibluffs if he is even capable of raising a draw.

Time to fold
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote
08-08-2018 , 05:07 AM
I would've bet bigger on the flop. Anyways AP I think it's safe to assume you have close to zero FE so to keep the math simple let's just go with that. Flatting is not an option so he basically just shoved for $358 total. Now it's $313 to call a pot of $473. Getting about 1.5 to 1 you need 40% equity.

You lose to nine set combos and three J9s combos.

Have you seen him GII with TPTK on a draw heavy flop before for $400? If you have, close your eyes and shove, especially since you don't have Q. Vs AJ, the twelve combos that beat you, and a few combo draws you are nearly flipping. So it's safe to GII. Don't forget though, AA is a worse hand because it double blocks AJ. Based on Hold EQ we're AA is around 42% so it's almost BE. That's a HUGE difference! Shove AA anyways to desensitize yourself to the variance and also to show that you're not afraid to gamble for stacks with one pair in case there are aggro villains at your table looking for spots to bluff you.

Also this is somewhat important, do you think villain would 3 bet JJ? Because if he does, that's three less combos you lose to now which is huge. If we remove JJ from his range, now AA jumps to 48% and QQ is a 55% favourite.

Most importantly, it's how you think he plays AJ. The above calculations assumes that he gets it in 100% of the time with AJ. If he flats AJ half the time and gets it in the other half, our equity is obviously going to suffer. A lot. QQ goes from near flipping to 40%. AA goes from 42% to a 2-1 dog! In other words, QQ goes from clearly +EV to break even, while AA goes from very slightly +EV to definitely -EV.
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote
08-08-2018 , 05:14 AM
Villain A would reraise pre with jj. I really suspected he was on a draw. He would flat with aj a lot of the time.
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote
08-08-2018 , 05:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Solomon_Peabody
Villain A would reraise pre with jj. I really suspected he was on a draw. He would flat with aj a lot of the time.
Why? There's only a few combos of combo draws unless he's gonna do it with the non club QTs or T8s combos. Anyways I removed JJ from villain's range and weighted his AJ combos to 25% based on what you just said. QQ is now 38% which is slightly -EV. AA is even worse than a 2-1 dog now. In that case you should fold.
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote
08-08-2018 , 05:40 AM
Yep. I reckon AJ combos even 25% was generous.

I shoved, he had A-9cc. He hits the club on the river.
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote
08-08-2018 , 05:55 AM
You should have called the floor and gotten your money back cause there's two 9 in the deck.
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote
08-08-2018 , 06:25 AM
My bad. Jc 9s 3c flop. Negative variance has clouded my memory and judgment.
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote
08-08-2018 , 11:02 AM
I sometimes do something different preflop (overlimp to reraise) because with these stacks going even just threeway can create meh SPR spots (ones that are small where we might feel committed and yet at the same time we've given decent IO).

For me flops like this are part of the problem. We have a small SPR of 5 on a semi-drawy board. You could argue we're committed, and perhaps should even be overbetting the flop slightly to get the rest in by the turn. But even if we take a 3 street bet/fold route for stacks, if our opponents don't raise we'll likely feel committed by the river if no scare card comes (as we'll often only have < 1/2 PSB left at that point).

Anyhoo, in this case our opponent raised the flop so he's given us an opportunity to exit. I find not too many opponents raise just TP on the flop, so I probably exit, but it's likely a dicey decision.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote
08-08-2018 , 02:35 PM
The biggest problem with getting it in is that his draws have very good equity. In fact a lot of them are flipping vs QQ. The only hand you crush is AJ and you said he doesn't have that often enough.
1/3: Overpair against mid-range mezzo-geezer mod-deep Quote

      
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