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1/3 OOP with top two with completed draws on river 1/3 OOP with top two with completed draws on river

03-07-2012 , 06:23 PM
1/3, hero is playing TAG, although people seem pretty oblivious to table image.

Table is 8-handed.
Villain is a middle-aged Asian guy whom I've played with many times. He's sometimes spewy and will try to buy pots in position if shown weakness, but generally is a calling station and will chase draws or overvalue TPGK and sometimes second pair. Loves playing any two suited cards or unsuited connectors. Generally will fold his weaker hands if two-barreled, though.

V1 has about $500, hero covers.

Hero gets AK UTG and raises to $15.
V1 in MP calls, everyone else folds.

Flop ($30) AK4

Hero bets $25, villain calls.

Turn ($80) 7

Hero bets $65, villain calls.

River ($210) T

Hero?

I want to bet my hand for value, but I don't know how much to bet. I don't think he's capable of bluff-raising me here, but he's definitely capable of making a bluff on the river if I check to him. Or I could check to induce a bluff, but my style at these stakes is to maintain initiative because he isn't going to bluff 100% of the time and I don't want to miss a bet.

His turn call makes it more likely that he was on a draw as opposed to a top pair/rag hand, which may or may not have gotten there (KQo/KJo type hands are probably in his range here). He's often calling with hands like A3 or K4 on the flop, but rarely on the turn, so I feel comfortable taking those hands out of his range.

So I think I want to bet/fold, but how much? Or should I be taking a different line?
1/3 OOP with top two with completed draws on river Quote
03-07-2012 , 06:37 PM
I think b/f 105$ sounds reasonable...he probably calls with all lower Ax, would he raise AT here?
1/3 OOP with top two with completed draws on river Quote
03-07-2012 , 08:08 PM
You read on your opponent is tough to put to use. It almost contradicts itself. I mean how can someone be a "calling station" yet, fold their weaker hands when two barreled.

Is he calling multiple streets with second pair or top pair poor kicker in a raised pot, or isn't he?

In my opinion there are not a ton of hands we can get value from on the river. There shouldn't be a ton of Ax / Kx type hands we can get value from.

I would think your opponents range is probably something like - Ax, AT, 44, 53dd, 78dd, 67dd, 56dd, QJdd. - We could probably trim 44 & QJdd from that range as they raise flop? I also don't think it is likely he has many worse 2 pair hands (AT excluded) as I think a A4s or A7s raise flop & turn respectively.

It feels if we bet/fold we are really only trying to get value out of a few combos of Ax (AQ/AJ/AT), which makes up a small part of his range in my opinion.

Also despite the fact that our opponent will bet if weakness is shown (Which in itself seems contradictory to your read on him as being stationy). There really aren't a ton of possible hands he can have on the river that he would bluff with and it is also probably unlikely he would value bet a hand worse than ours.

I think we can check/fold the river, I think thats very borderline and probably wrong though. Bet / folding is probably better and I am over thinking it. He probably shows up with Kx/Ax way more than I think, who knows.
1/3 OOP with top two with completed draws on river Quote
03-07-2012 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bo Goldman
You read on your opponent is tough to put to use. It almost contradicts itself.
So you replied the same way?

I agree with the bet/fold, ~$80 sounds good.
1/3 OOP with top two with completed draws on river Quote
03-07-2012 , 09:31 PM
I'd b/f about 85. He's probably still calling with all his Ace's since the bet would be fairly small and it acts as a block bet.
1/3 OOP with top two with completed draws on river Quote
03-07-2012 , 10:32 PM
I probally just push one stack ($100) forward and fold to any raise.
1/3 OOP with top two with completed draws on river Quote

      
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