1/3 live, 10 players, loose table

Hero (UTG, $300) hasn't done much at the table in the hour or so I've been here apart from Hand1 history below. A middle aged white guy, I have no prior history with villain before this session.

Villain (BB, covers, he built most of his stack before I sat down) is 60ish european white guy. I've played with him for about an hour+, he's only made one preflop raise (didn't show). I don't think he's bluffy at all postflop, but he might overvalue hands. Here's two hand histories:

Hand1: Before I have a handle on how loose the table is, I raise AKo to $20 UTG and get called in 4 places, including villain in BB. 3 of the callers only have ~PSB left, so I bet a PSB on a A43r flop. Unfortunately, the only caller is Villain who instacalls without any thought. Pot is now $300, I have $240 left, Villain covers, and he donk ships a Q turn. I fold (ug, perhaps terrible with less than a PSB left, but I can think of like one, maybe two, hands that instacall the flop without a second thought that I beat). Next hand on a AQx flop villain points to flop and then to me and says "That's what I had against you: AQ"; I think there's a legitimate chance he's telling the truth.

Hand2: He limps with AQo and calls a preflop raise. He check/calls a Axx flop, check/calls a blank turn, and then checks a blank river, and when his opponent (who has $120 left) bets $75 into $120 pot, the villain then check/raises him all-in to $120. They chop the pot (both have AQ).


Preflop (10 players): Hero 7 7
Hero limps UTG, 6 other limps including Villain who checks BB

Flop (7 players, $20): J 7 6
Checked to Hero who bets $15, MP calls, Villain calls

Turn (3 players, $65) K
Checked to Hero who bets $50, MP folds, Villain calls

River (2 players, $165) :3
Villain donks $55, Hero...

Pot is now $220. Hero has about $235 left. Villain is passive, so I guess it's possible he could have JJ, although you would think with the drawyness of the board (especially on the turn) that more money would go in. I also kinda rule out KK due to preflop/flop. So other than 54 (possible), I'm basically sitting there with the nuts. I doubt Jx hands pay off a raise. KJ probably woulda gave more turn action. It's possible the 3 completed a wonky two pair (he's in the BB). But I have to raise for value, right? And the only raise that really makes sense is a ship, right?

Easy ship, nothing to see here?

GcluelessNLnoobG

All draws missed but the straight, jam

remember there are 16 combos of 54

what is his calling range? If he can be taking this line (and also calling the jam) with KJ and 76 then ship it (thats 18 combos right there not to mention the 3 combos of 33, etc)

Easy ship? Yes. If he has KK/JJ, bad luck. NH.

Yes, ship it!

is villain willing to pay for his draws? does he overvalue hand strength?

based on his HH, i think he's slow playing KJ AJ or some random wacky two pair on the flop and/or turn.

you have to raise here for value. i think i make it $150, obviously our stack size is awkward ~$80 behind after that raise.. but i do see a possibility to ship it here too so you can argue if you raise $150, might as well have shipped it if he's 4betting you.

I'd get it in here if you think he can overplay his hands.

KK almost always raises pre or fires the flop at the very least. I suppose JJ can take this line, but it's a bit bizarre for him to never make a bet and then come out firing OTR. I think his hand looks a lot like 2 pair.

I *think* the two hand histories I provide (if he's telling the truth about having AQ against my AK) may indicate he might overvalue hand strength.

This check/call line with KJ/76, especially with the drawyness of the board on the turn, seems a little strange to me, but I guess it's possible (since he took a check/call line with TP in Hand2 although that board was drawless if I recall). He never shows up with 33 here.

I'm not sure he pays off with Jx with the K on board, but I might wrong. He is passive preflop, so it might be some lol AA/QQ, although you'd think both of these hands would have led or check/raised the flop.

Ship this always vs anybody. The $55 bet tends to indicate that he wants to go to showdown cheaply. Given the weakish bet, he hardly ever has a straight here. If he has a set it's a super cooler.

That's definitely the type of bet it looked like to me. But if that's the case, does he call a ship? I guess some wonky two pair hand certainly does, or some lol slowplayed 66.

Basically just wanted to confirm that he has enough hands that are calling a raise here. I'm pretty sure there are?

Well, you have to raise, and a small raise will look scarier than a ship. A ship could indicate a missed straight draw which many of the donks will convince themselves you had. If they are going to call a small raise they are often going to call a ship as well. Most Jack type hands will fold, but villain will call often with top pair and will practically never fold two pair.

Ya, this was my line of thinking as well regarding that my only raise size should be a ship.

all in buddy

sorry if you got coolered by the straight

also kj or 66 are way more likely than kk or jj

In the BB villain can have all sorts of two pair. Is he calling a ship with 2 pair? I think I ship and if he has strait ah well. I think str bets more most of the time so I might even discount that sometimes.

I find I do this when villains over rep a hand, I have a hard time putting them on the nuts, hope it didnt happen to you.