I don't think this is a thin value bet at all, I think it's a must bet. Our hand doesn't read as a flush (what flushes are we betting the flop with multiway?). It looks like a smallish overpair or perhaps a 6x, a lot of which are checking back the river. If we've boated up, he can make a disciplined bet/fold.

As others have said, it's not a horrendous call given the price. But I still would lean to fold as it seems like too large a "cheap" blocking bet with 99-77 (who are mostly just happy attempting to get to showdown without putting any more money in the pot on this scary runout instead of turning a showdownable hand into a bluff).

GcluelessNLnoobG

What does shorter and deeper mean?
Why 1/2 sized?
What does “go from there” mean?
Can you remove “I” and provide reasons/rationales?

How is the game raked? Pay for time and no rake? Then I think flatting pre is okay. If raked, then you must squeeze. I kind of like a squeeze just to get it heads up or take it down pre though. Decent chance HJ overcalls though.

I agree with flop bet for protection. Something like 30-40%. Turn I feel like bet or check is okay. He could have a 6. Also, I kind of like checking turn, giving me a comfortable bluff catch or value bet on a lot of rivers.

River is tricky. Need to be good 22.9% of the time. For value, Ad4d makes sense, and maybe hands like AdJd through Ad7d for two overs with backdoors on the flop. 54 suited for 3 combos makes sense. It is kind of hard to put him on 44, but I guess it isn't that crazy as he has 6 outs on the turn. He also might be block betting with a hand like A6.

How many bluffs does he really have? 3 combos of 87s no diamonds? Maybe A hand like AdJx that floats flop planning to sometimes bluff diamond rivers?

But all the floats for value and bluff he can have don't seem super likely given it is 4 ways on the flop and he is out of position. And what is really the liklihood that he calls turn with and open ender on a paired board with a flush draw, AND donks river ad a bluff?

The more I think about it, the more I think you can just fold.

Thanks...I appreciate the response and the analysis. Regarding the rake structure, it's 10% up to $6, plus $1 promo drop at $10 and a second $1 at $60.

The more I've reflected on this hand, the more I've come to believe that the squeeze/3-bet is in order. Given that I have position, a 3bet to ~$70-75 is likely a good sizing. I have to get more comfortable 3betting slightly-below-premium hands when the situation calls for it.

I was still surprised to see 44 when calling his river bet. I even said something like "Ahhh, if I was losing this pot, that's not the hand I thought I was losing to." It still seems very thin to me, as I can have all the boats as played.

I would go 80 or 90. 3x minimum + the dead money from the call in between.

With that rake structure I am guessing it is probably best to go with 3bet or fold strats outside of the big blind. Button also isn't as bad to cold call. CO and small blind are the next best positions for flatting. But you can do well to simply and just play 3bet or fold outside of the BB. You would be surprised how many cold calling hands are losing in a raked environment. You would be glad just to generate 2 folds and take down the $44 dead money preflop.