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1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision 1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision

06-30-2016 , 09:03 AM
1/3 NL - late afternoon weekday game. $100 - $500 capped game.

Villain 1 - ($315) Sticky old man. Calls at least 2 streets with any pair, sometimes 3. Sometimes he bets out w/ any pair, sometimes he check calls.

Villain 2 - ($900)MAWG fish, likes to straddle everytime he's UTG. If anyone else straddles he will double straddle. Likes to raise w/ mediocre hands (K7s, Q6s, etc) in any position. Sticky post flop, doesn't fold draws.

Hero - ($750) Mid 20's WG, seen losing a pot where I got it all in on the turn on a AK3 8 board where I lost to a rivered nut flush in ~ $800 pot, but I didn't show. Since rebought for $400 and ran it up, mostly on one hand where c/c a river with TPTK.

OTTH...
Preflop:
V2 announces this is his last hand with his chips in his rack and straddles for $6 UTG
Hero Limps in the HJ with A 5
Folds to V1 in the BB who limps
V2 raises his straddle to $21 total, we both call.

Flop: ($64) 367
V1 checks
V2 bets $25
Hero calls
V1 calls

Turn: ($139) 2
V1 checks
V2 bets $40
Hero calls
V1 calls

River: ($269) 6
V1 bets $85
V2 tanks for way too long, really wants to fold, but makes a crying call.
Hero raise sizing?
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 09:14 AM
This must be at Silks. I just played there a few days ago.

I dont like preflop and really dont like the flop play. I would fold or raise that flop.

As played, I raise to $210 which puts V1 all in but I really hope your read that V2 really wants to fold is correct.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 09:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
I really hope your read that V2 really wants to fold is correct.
He seemed surprised I was still in the hand when I went in to thought. I was borderline positive it was an accurate read.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 09:41 AM
I still think a raise to $210 is correct, but the more I think about it, I cant remember ever raising with a flush on a paired board so in game I would probably wuss out and just call.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 09:56 AM
Not really a fan pre. I'd probably open in the HJ with Axs.

I like calling the flop. You have position with a gut-shot, bdfd, and an over on a flop that likely missed villains utg raising range.

I lean toward calling the turn. You get the direct odds to call. The 2 doesn't change the board. You probably don't have the FE against two villains if you semi-bluff raise.

Raise enough on the river to put V1 all in, if not a little more.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nice_Guy_Eddie
Not really a fan pre. I'd probably open in the HJ with Axs.

I like calling the flop. You have position with a gut-shot, bdfd, and an over on a flop that likely missed villains utg raising range.

I lean toward calling the turn. You get the direct odds to call. The 2 doesn't change the board. You probably don't have the FE against two villains if you semi-bluff raise.

Raise enough on the river to put V1 all in, if not a little more.
Can we talk about this?

Most people's UTG raising range is medium to big pairs and big aces. How are you ever ahead of that range? I think a fold or a semi bluff raise is better. He made a weak flop bet so there's a good chance he doesnt have a big pair. A raise folds out a AJ type hand most of the time and you have you position, a gutshot and back door flush to fall back on his someone calls.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brojaysimpson
1/3 NL - late afternoon weekday game. $100 - $500 capped game.

Villain 1 - ($315) Sticky old man. Calls at least 2 streets with any pair, sometimes 3. Sometimes he bets out w/ any pair, sometimes he check calls.

Villain 2 - ($900)MAWG fish, likes to straddle everytime he's UTG. If anyone else straddles he will double straddle. Likes to raise w/ mediocre hands (K7s, Q6s, etc) in any position. Sticky post flop, doesn't fold draws.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr

I dont like preflop and really dont like the flop play. I would fold or raise that flop.
Based on hero's reads, why is raising the flop a good idea in your opinion?

FWIW folding flop isn't terrible.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brojaysimpson

Villain 2 - ($900)MAWG fish, likes to straddle everytime he's UTG. If anyone else straddles he will double straddle. Likes to raise w/ mediocre hands (K7s, Q6s, etc) in any position. Sticky post flop, doesn't fold draws.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Can we talk about this?

Most people's UTG raising range is medium to big pairs and big aces.
Yes, let's talk about how you're completely ignoring OP's reads.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
Can we talk about this?

Most people's UTG raising range is medium to big pairs and big aces. How are you ever ahead of that range? I think a fold or a semi bluff raise is better. He made a weak flop bet so there's a good chance he doesnt have a big pair. A raise folds out a AJ type hand most of the time and you have you position, a gutshot and back door flush to fall back on his someone calls.
Sure. Hero is >200BB deep with a fair amount of equity vs. villain's cbet range and has position. I'm not interested in opening myself up to a reraise. It's always difficult to get two players to fold instead of one. I'd take the 3.6:1 odds to evaluate V1's flop action, a turn card, and all players turn action.

The massive IO and semi-bluff turn opportunities makes folding not an option. I think hero can get big aces to fold when they miss on the turn. I think there are plenty of steal opportunities on later streets and hero will have more information to make a decision.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:31 AM
FWIW while I said folding flop isn't terrible, I'd peel one for the reasons Eddie gave.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie
Yes, let's talk about how you're completely ignoring OP's reads.
I actually did skip over hero's read of villain. My mistake. I do still think most people would tighten up on their last hand but I could be wrong.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nice_Guy_Eddie
Sure. Hero is >200BB deep with a fair amount of equity vs. villain's cbet range and has position. I'm not interested in opening myself up to a reraise. It's always difficult to get two players to fold instead of one. I'd take the 3.6:1 odds to evaluate V1's flop action, a turn card, and all players turn action.

The massive IO and semi-bluff turn opportunities makes folding not an option. I think hero can get big aces to fold when they miss on the turn. I think there are plenty of steal opportunities on later streets and hero will have more information to make a decision.
If that's the plan, isn't raising the turn as a semi bluff a better plan than just calling? Hero has even more equity now and should have plenty of FE against villains wide range and that weak ass turn bet.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
If that's the plan, isn't raising the turn as a semi bluff a better plan than just calling? Hero has even more equity now and should have plenty of FE against villains wide range and that weak ass turn bet.
I think semi-bluff raising is fine. I prefer calling because OP described both villains as 'sticky', minimizing hero's FE. A semi-bluff still requires FE to be profitable. I'd take the direct odds to call and plan to extract more value on the river when I hit, fold when I miss. A turn re-raise is very unlikely, but still a threat.

I'd be more likely to bluff if top pair changed. V1 calls 2+ streets with pairs. I think a card like the 9 would encourage more folds from 6s and 7s.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 10:47 AM
FWIW I've seen this V make these weak bets with both the nuts and mid/bottom pair. Just seems to be his standard bet sizing.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by brojaysimpson
FWIW I've seen this V make these weak bets with both the nuts and mid/bottom pair. Just seems to be his standard bet sizing.
In that case I would just fold flop most of the time, but as played I think I just call the river. As I said earlier, I think a raise to $210ish is correct but Im a wuss when it comes to flushes on paired boards. I think most SBs would have 46, 56, 67 or a set here, but based on your read I guess he can have any 6 or a set.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 11:10 AM
I think it's a pretty clear raise/fold (to v2), that's why I was asking about sizing. I can agree w/ 210.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 11:48 AM
I'm ok with open limping even in LP with a speculative hand trying to get into a cheap pot. These guys are sticky, so raising to steal preflop/postflop is kinda meh, imo. I probably also call the raise thanks to being deep against sticky players and in position with a nutmaking hand that could cooler someone, although I'm not in love with only going 3way.

Flop is dicey, imo. We have a gutshot + over + backdoor and position deep, and we're facing a weakish looking bet, so I can't hate the call. But our IO on our gutshot probably ain't great and our RIO on our over might not be good. ETA: Although I'm guessing we are sometimes planning to take the pot away on the turn (expecting HU) if he checks to us, as I'm guessing even most sticky players don't get sticky on the turn with no pair.

I also just call the turn. Even though we still have V1 to react, I don't think we can fold given the great odds and our very good draw. While V2 is betting small, he is betting into two opponents and they are both sticky, so I'm not in love with semibluffing raising here.

Even though board has paired, none of these guys have given an indication of set / two pair on this drawy board so I'm fairly confident I have the nuts. V1 only has $144 left, and V2 struggled with his call, so I would simply shove in V1's stack and hope V2 manages another overcall.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 06-30-2016 at 11:53 AM.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote
06-30-2016 , 04:23 PM
I would have raised pre to about 25. I love me some position and SPR 10 to 15 against V2 IP sounds like a good time. Winning pre isn't terrible, but I'm not expecting that.

As played, I'm calling the flop. We've got position, some equity and lots of money left back. Let's see what develops. Don't like a raise as we don't have that much equity, nor any particular reason to think the villains we're hoping are sticky have suddenly found their fold buttons. I don't mind a fold. I think this is a thin value spot, and it's very sensitive to reads on V's (which are possibly muddied since it's V2's last hand).

Turn is nice, giving us at seven more outs to the absolute nuts. Again, not feeling the raise against sticky V's. Here, I think folding is definitely a mistake.

River pairs the board and V1 bets out. Did he really x/c two streets with 2P or a flopped set? I'm not a believer. Ima assume he's got trips and figure we've got the nuts.

I don't put much stock in the V2 tank. Certainly could be that he's genuinely conflicted, but I've seen people "tank" with the nuts. And he has been betting the whole way. I'm not remotely considering folding, but nor am I convinced V2 can't possibly have the boat.

V1 has, like, 145 back (315 - 21 - 25 - 40 - 85). We're obviously putting him all in and loving life.

V2 has 580 back. If all that goes in, our love of life diminishes.

So I put 150 on top. If V2 shoves, I'm probably folding.
1/3 NL - River Sizing Decision Quote

      
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