Seated at a $1/$3NL overnight table on Saturday before noon, Hero is WM older guy who has been there for about 90 minutes. Hero raised all 6 hands he VPIP, getting 3 streets of value with AA in one spot on board of (KJ622). He is likely viewed as tight with a clean image, BI for $300, now at $725 and cover. Drinking coffee

V sat about 30-40 minutes ago. ~30 yo Asian, BI for $300, mostly open raised or folded pre, aggressive when sensing weakness post, seemed competent and experienced, however was playing a lot of hands. Small sample, ofc. He had $425.

Currently playing 7-handed (9-max), hand was folded to V who limped in MP2, HJ (primary target) called, folded to Hero on BTN with Ts9s who raised to $18. Folded to V who called, target called.

($52 after rake) flop of TcTd8h was checked to Hero who bet $35. V raised to $100, target folded and Hero called. Given his line so far, thought this was mostly air blowing at a capped range, perhaps J9/98 but Hero had a blocker. 3-bet folds worse, called by better?

($252) turn of 3d is checked through. Aggressive opponent, let him stab or catch-up on river?

($252) river of Kh. V bet $150 and Hero tossed in a chip instantly.

Feedback welcome on all decision points, however really interested if the river should have been a raise given V had ~$155 remaining with pot ~$550. Initial reaction was he had more bluffs than value hands in his range. Probably should have thought a bit more in a spot where I usually have the remaining stack factored in.

Yea it's one of those weird spots where it's hard for a value raise to get called 50% of the time but at the same time villain literally never has better. I always raise in those spots.

Depends on villains bluffing frequency on whether I bet turn or not. In spots where it looks like they're shutting down I usually just vbet targeting his QJ/79 or whatever.

You have basically the worst possible ten here if we are viewing villain as solid/experienced. I think your hand is way good most of the time, but in terms of getting called by worse on the river, I'm not really seeing any hands he would play this way that could pay off to a shove here (that make any sense anyway). So as played I'd just call river.

I would have bet turn myself though. An enticing size to get called by open ends/see if he wants to spazz again. I don't think the double check on this board should concern you all that much.

Looks good. Plenty of 8x and pp that might go for a c/r on the flop. Most low-stakes players would slowplay with Tx or 88. I like checking the turn because it's hard for him to continue with worse when you called the flop c/r. I'd plan to call all river bets. I'd never raise the river because you only get called by better.

Why not check flop? Safe hand, cannot get 3 streets...

Looks good. I'd jam the river though. Doubt that a better hand c/r's flop to then check turn when called.

why did you check the turn? <answer to this is the answer to the river imo.

@sham - I didn't check flop because it was 3-way with target opponent still in.

@dustin - As stated in op, I checked turn to induce a river bet.

can anyone explain why we would check flop here? I am like never checking this flop from the btn when I am the PFR with suited connectors and flop trips.

I think I am always raising this river because I can't imagine he has a better hand than us when he checks the turn

The only reason to check here, IMO, is if you have a villain who you think missed but will pound the turn and the river for you.

I don't think that is the case in this pot, plus our bet looks like a c bet. I'm betting here about 100% of the time.

I'm either/or preflop, but if I'm unlikely to get this HU (which is often difficult to do at my loose table) I'd lean towards just overlimping.

I think I'm ok with flop if this guy can get out-of-line, plus I'm cool with idea of just flatting vs reraising.

I think board is a little too drawy to allow a free card on the turn. I might attempt to induce another spazz by betting on the small side (say $90). My guess is that if we called the flop and check back the turn that he ain't going to donk bluff on the river cuz he knows we're simply going to snap that off having pot controlled the turn. Another idea would be to simply bet big on the turn to charge what is probably a draw. Another idea would be to literally pot control the turn by checking back cuz we might actually be behind (and I think it is something to consider, hence why I don't hate a check back). Against aggro opponents who could be induced to spazz, I probably lean to a tank / small bet / snap call.

As played, I also just call the river. I highly doubt he has T7- (the only worse hand that considers a call). There's actually still a decent chance we are beat, but I don't think we can fold given our weak looking turn check back.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah, with target in there is no way I'm checking back this flop as we want to play for stacks versus him.

GcluelessNLnoobG

But do we ever get looked up by worse? If not, the benefit of not having to show our hand isn't worth the risk of running into a tricky turn played better hand, imo.

FWIW, I think Villain could easily check the turn with a better hand. When we call the flop bet, we look like an overpair. He doesn't want that overpair to fold to a turn bet (where stacks are now being threatened), plus he might think that overpair bets the turn themselves a decent amount of the time.

GcluelessNLnoobG

This sure looks like one of those awful trap plays with KK+ pre/flop, but he has some other hands and I actually play it exactly as you did given your image.

In hand, I wouldn't interpret his line as a draw ever - people do this with 22-AA for a bunch of different reasons as well as T7s+ of course. His turn ck is very weird however, and makes me wonder if he either spiked a 3 or has JJ+ that doesn't know how to proceed. Sometimes Tx might ck, but it's tough to say other than that any Tx that checks is likely T9+. That riv bet now looks like 33/KK+/KT only to me. I like your line.

You mentioned your image was solid and your read on him was that he was experienced and competent. Plus no history between the two of you, so it would be surprising if he picked this spot to make a play on the flop in a 3-way pot. His value range on the flop is probably something like this:

88 (3 combos)
JT (4 combos)
QT (4 combos)
KT (4 combos)
AT (4 combos)

He may be doing this with an open ender, but that is optimistic as he's probably not open limp/calling pre with J9. Maybe give him 2 combos here, as even if he does play J9 this way pre-flop, he's not likely to be check-raising the flop with all his J9 combos.

How many 8's do you really think he's doing this with? What is his open limp/calling range with an 8? You said he generally opened pots by raising and that he was competent, so there shouldn't be too many. Maybe 78s or 89s? That s 5 combos given that you block one with the 9.

Perhaps he did this with a middle pair such as 66 or 77, and is check-raising the flop to get you to fold your whiffed Broadways. Fair enough. Let's give him 6 out of the 12 possible combos there.

I'll assume he's not open limp/calling with 8T, but if we're willing to give him J9, 78 and 89, you have to think he has maybe 1 combo of 8T in there as well - unlikely as that may be.

As for bluffs like broadway cards, I'm just skeptical based on what you described as he's most likely raising pre-flop with AK, AQ, etc. Sometimes people like to get fancy with AQ or AK, so I'll give him 4 combos here, just to account for some weird play.

So on the flop we're looking at 20 value combos, 13 combos of 8s, middle pairs or open enders, and 4 combos of Broadway bluffs.

What was your plan if he led into you on the turn and bombed the river? Given the combo distribution I'm very happy with the check back. The 3d changes absolutely nothing, so if you're betting on the turn you're getting snapped by his value range and folding out his bluffs and weaker made hands. By checking back you allow him to bluff and don't give up much in terms of giving him a chance to catch up.

On the river, let's look at each portion of his range, assess whether he will bet, and how he will react to a shove:

- Value: I assume he'll be betting all of his value range here. Shoving against this range is essentially turning your hand into a bluff, and while he may be able to find a fold by putting you on KK or KT, I wouldn't count on it.

- Made hands: 78,89, 55, 66 etc very well may get to the river this way, but are they ever calling a shove? Very unlikely.

- Bluffs: J9 is folding obviously, and so are non-king Broadway hands. Even QK and JK are likely to go away, though AK will probably find a call.

As such, I think your river play was fine and would definitely not advocate for a jam. The simple reason being that you are getting called by everything that beats you and folding out the vast majority of hands that can call.

Mileage may vary on some of my combo estimates, but even given some errors I think the general premise of the rationale for checking back turn and calling river still apply.

You guys are way over thinking this. Villain has better approximately never here. The only hand that may take this line is a fps boat and he can't have T8s so that leaves 88. If he's got one of those 3 combos and he raised flop (unlikely) and checked turn (lol button clicking at its finest) then God bless.

Significantly more likely was that he was clicking buttons. And the question becomes how many of those buttons include Kx. And then how many of those Kx will tilt put in an extra hundo or whatever.

The ultimate question is if a value raise gets called 50% of the time here. It's close but I just don't like not shoving when we know we have the nuts and villain has like $3.50 behind.

Appreciate all of the feedback.

In retrospect and results aside, I think a river shove would have been the more optimal choice. If he folded, no need to show cards, he likely would have put me on KK+.

Albeit 30-40 minutes of play before this hand, the opponent showed aggression when opening. We were 7-handed so I thought any pp/broadways/scs would have raised pre. His C/R on the flop looked more like a suited rag AX, or something like J9/98/97/K9/Q9, etc.

Imo, his turn check looked really weak because an OESD would likely apply max pressure to what he read as QQ+. He would continue with a strong line and the combo of ~19% SD equity plus FE.

After the quick river call, he sheepishly tabled Kc3c. He had turned 2-pair and rivered 3-pair. I don’t think he would have called. Said he put me on QQ before the quick river call, and was surprised I raised the BTN with T9s. Given my demographic and image, this happens frequently, though the better players know I’m obviously wider ip.

How often are you checking turns in situations like this (heads up, villain showed aggression on flop but shuts down turn)

What thoughts do you have when faced with this line and why do you check/bet?

Personally I used to check alot bc you see stuff like this (K3) and it's best to give them some rope to click one more button otr. But at the same time I realized alot of villains are just pure shutting down (with say J9/79 here) and you are missing the best street of value/equity.

Basically if in live poker villains call more than they bluff, shouldn't we bet more turns and induce less rivers?

Srs question.

Also, would you bet AA here ott.

Thanks for your input.

I'm calling and potentially losing a 140 bbs. I think your PF ranges are too snug given the table was short-handed at the time, besides the opponent image.

I'd also ask, if u L/C say KTs, would u C/R this flop and risk folding a BTN pfr range, or simply flat?

I don't think you get more value betting the turn since, as you said, most villains shutdown. If villain spaz bluffed the flop, give him the opportunity to do it again on the river. Hero can't eliminate a better Tx hand and needs to protect his stack a bit. I would 100% check the turn with AA on this board.

I think a case can be made for betting the turn if the board created draw. Say hero has KT and the flop is TT8r. Hero should bet if a two-flush 9 hits the turn.

Thinking of this from both sides:

- If I have a hand like V, who had air on the flop that turned into something that is still below hero's range, I am check/folding here a ton with the logic that V has my range crushed and they already called a raise.

- As Hero, once V slows down, I struggle to put him on something like AT/KT or 88. V would never check a monster here given the likelihood that I have a worse ten. His range is capped. That leads to the following though process:

- If I had a very good T I am betting here about 100% of the time because sometimes that check/raise on the flop is a hand like T9 that is getting scared that we have a monster but is unable to fold if I size my bets right.

- If I had a straight draw or a weaker 8x I am betting hard to get a fold

- If I had a hand like hero or AA, I'm probably checking here to make villain think I have a weaker hand than I do. It's not just about letting them bluff, it's about getting a bet/fold called on the river.

maybe I should try for 3 streets of smaller value here, but I suspect hands like K3 are just folding turn when we bet

grunch:
Hand seems fine.
Not raising the river is good.
And calling the flop is good since we have very few Tx in our range so he can easily just be trying to move us off and OP with almost ATC.

Clearly my ranges are too snug if he's limp/calling $18 with Kc3c. However keep in mind that that analysis was based on the information provided, which was that he seemed competent, experienced and had mostly been open raising. Obviously ranges would expand a lot if we knew this type of play could be reasonably considered.

Given that, I still think raising river is a bit thin, but I'd be willing to give it a whirl since villain seems pretty fishy and very well may call down with a much wider range.

As for your question, its tough because you're asking me to get inside the head of someone who l/c $18 pre with KTs. That said, I would probably not c/r flop with KT given that I have your range crushed and want to give you a chance to catch up a bit or keep firing.