Hero opens MP to 25 over an UTG straddle with AJdd, stack around 350 and covered by everyone. Image is maybe slightly TAGgy, involved a decent amount, generally aggressive, shown a bluff.

LJ (nitty OWC) calls, which sets off some alarm bells. I lost a hand to her earlier when I over-limped 54s on the button and lost with a flopped flush to her AKs, which had limped the SB.
BTN -- main Villain, rec player who has some sense of what he's doing, haven't seen him get out of line, but nothing special -- calls.
SB (another old woman who actually had some moxie and craftiness to her game) calls.

(100) Flop Ac Kd Ks

SB cheekily leads for 3. Hero block-raises(?) to 30 to charge bad draws, but don't feel great about it because there's a good chance someone has a K. LJ calls, which is really concerning and Hero prepares to shut down if we don't improve. BTN Villain calls. SB completes.

(220) Turn Ac Kd Ks 7d

Hero picks up the nut flush draw to go with our pair. SB checks. Not convinced anything worse would call or anything better (e.g. a K) would fold at this point, Hero checks. LJ also checks. BTN bets 55. SB folds. With top pair so-so kicker and flush draw, Hero calls, though expecting to have to hit an A or low diamond to win. LJ tank-folds, later claiming she had AQ.

(330) River Ac Kd Ks 7d Tc

River is a brick. Do we:

A) Check -- we have some showdown value and we're not getting value from worse or getting better to fold
B) Donk-bet small for value -- a bad Villain might call down with an ace (which we out-kick)
C) Jam as a bluff -- we block a decent amount of full house and straight combos and a weak Kx might think he's beat

I would just check. Unless the 10 gave him a straight I don't think he's gonna like it much so you may get a check back. But not sure if he would fold something like KJ or KQ to a bluff. Not to mention K10 is in his range as well.

I would just check, we do have some SDV if it gets checked around.

The way this hand was played by hero and V, I think V could have a lot of weak value and bluffs in his range.

If V had a hand that connected with this board in a strong way, he probably would have 3B pre or flop, and bet bigger on turn. When hero checks turn, it looks like hero is giving up, and V's 1/4 bet looks more weak-bluffy than trip K's needing some protection.

Maybe he got there with QJ, but that's about the only real hand he would seem to have here, the way he's played this, assuming he calls flop and bluffs turn with QJ.

So...yeah, I guess check, and let him continue to bluff at it. Doubtful he's going to bet AQ for value, or very many weak K's. If he's just an average rec, he might even check back QJ, fearing hero has a boat, leaving ONLY bluffs in his barreling range.

Just don't see much reason to bet here, effectively turning top pair into a bluff.

Given those reads, I think x/f turn. Hitting your flush could actually be the worst possible outcome.

Not sure about the decision to raise flop, or the size.

Turn: H has compressed V's range substantially pre, flop. We block most of V's semi-bluffs/flush draws, but V on turn fires away nonetheless with a value sizing. He's giving us odds to draw to our nut flushes, but dgaf.

So on river, I think V has very few bluffs and QJ has made its straight. H has ~270 behind - less than PSB. So what hands that H beats is V folding getting over 2-1 if we jam? Maybe just AQ.

A value/blocker bet accomplishes nothing, since we would give V great odds to call with the pot at 330. We would only fold the range that we beat anyway - weaker Ax.

So I think it's just a check. V has to be very careful too. H has nut advantage and V cannot blast off either. I think V shows down all his Ax and can really only bet his KQ that blocks our QJ.

3 into 100 is hella cheeky indeed

Result:

Hero does indeed check, expecting to get blasted into. However, Villain actually checks it back, allowing a spark of hope that is quickly extinguished when he reveals KJo for trips. I guess I'm lucky he didn't bet there. Though his check-back made me wonder if I could have gotten him off of it with a huge bet. But probably not given his exact holding and given how the hand played until then it would have been extremely risky.

This was actually the second hand where, to my annoyance, I had this same Villain dominated and he sucked out on me with KJo. The first was when I had AKo, 3-bet pre, c-bet a K-high flop, then check-called his small all-in when flush and straight draws came in on the turn, only to find out on a J river that he only had top pair and a straight draw when we got the money in and needed the river to beat me.

Looking at several of your hands, i think you are overplaying your mid value hands on early streets, worrying way too much about draws getting there. Youre 4 way with a paired board, you can check (call 3) this flop, its perfectly fine that someone might 4 outer your medium holdings.

If i had called flop and it called thru, idve probably checked turn as well, but its an even easier check with you already betting a street. River im check folding as played, if he bets river hes got a king imo.

Good check on river.

Doubtful you could have bet him off his hand. The only way to win would have been check raising as a bluff.

Not surprised he checked back. You were either sandbagging with a monster, planning to check raise, or planning to check raise as a bluff, or had a hand that couldn't call a bet, or had one of a very low number of hands that could call a bet, many of which would be a chop or outright win. Many players will check back there, to avoid being put in a tough spot by a check raise.

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I guess that's fair -- I happened to have one of the few worse hands than his that might have even considered calling a bet. Most of my range either has him beat or would just fold to a bet.

This is a reasonable criticism. I was concerned that checking an AKK flop would be pretty face up and give opponents license to blast me off of the hand (and future "good" flops where I check -- though maybe there's room to turn this around by slowplaying when I connect or check-raising some portion of the time whether I connect or not). My flop raise was kind of a blocker bet in that regard, I wasn't explicitly concerned about straight draws.

In this particular case, maybe I could have saved myself some money by giving up and assuming if someone bet one or two streets they probably have a K.

I think AKK is just a flop that gets range bet or range checked quite often, its an extremely dry board, Kx generally doesnt mind letting someone peel since KQ KJ KT could hit a FH vs a gutshot anyway. AK AA KK has the nuts and traps, Ax and QQ- are reasonably safe medium holdings.

Id be much more inclined to bet this flop with a hand like 77 than AJ, where your equity is much more vulnerable and you can charge any overs.


For what its worth, i do like your 30% pot sizing, if it was HU or 3 way id be betting about $20-30 with my whole range, i just dont think its as good of a move 4 ways, bt its fine.