1/3 NL 10 handed

V1 (covers): I don't recall playing with this young (probably 20's?) guy before but he looks like a super solid TAG player who knows exactly what is going on. Earlier he made a $400 river bluff on a 3-to-a-flush board with the Aflush blocker to get TPTK to fold, which is a move you simply don't see people make in this game. So I'm thinking he's easily the best player at the table.

V2 ($405): Typical ~60 year old white guy, too loose preflop but is never bluffing when any real chips go in postflop.

Hero ($800): V2 will see me as a nitty player as we have lots of hours together. Even though V1 and I have no hours together, he likely also sees me as fairly nitty and running well in my first couple of hours at the table, playing barely any hands but getting paid off with a set earlier and also taking down a couple of decent pots preflop with 3bets.


Preflop (10 players):

A limp, V1 $15 from EP, 2 calls, I call on the button with black 77, V2 calls from the SB, limper calls

Flop (6 players, $90): 873r

Checked to V1 who checks, checks to me who $50 into $90 (ok?), V2 calls, V1 calls

Turn (3 players, $240): 9 (honestly can't recall if it put out a backdoor flush draw)

V2 now donks $100, V1 tank/calls, I call (I think raising in this spot is overplaying?)

River (3 players, $540): 2r

V2 shoves for $240, V1 tank/calls, I...

V2 is never bluffing or overvalueing one pear, especially since $250 shoves are rather large bets for this type of player. V1 knows exactly what is going on. But I'm getting 4:1 to overcall so I only have to be right 20% of the time. Is there enough universes where V2 has 33/98/etc. and V1 is tank/calling down with AA/etc. cuz of pot odds?

Or pot odds / schmot odds? A postflop nitty guy is betting and the best player at the table (room?) is calling, it doesn't matter if I'm getting 100:1 cuz it is never enough?

GcluelessalternateuniversesnoobG

I would call the river, hand seems fine.

Take the pot odds with 77. This is the worst hand I call with though because V2 can now have 33 in addition to 98. And V1 can have TT or sometimes a different overpair.

You’ll see 65 a lot but with these odds it’s probably OK to call.

EDIT: Your description of V1 makes me think he could be leveling himself into calling, not that he is a great player who will have you beat a lot when he calls.

If we put ourselves in V1's shoes, when (if ever) are we exiting with AA? His check/call this multiway seems fine on the flop. But honestly, I probably exit the turn in his shoes, although I'm not gonna hate waiting to the river to exit. So I'm basically hoping V1 isn't nearly as good as I think he is and is calling down the postflop nit (whom admittedly he might not have that much experience with) with an overpair, plus nit shows up with some hands I beat (33 that didn't check/raise the flop, 98?).

Gjustsightakemyodds?G

If I am V1 and I know how you play I will sigh-fold turn. If I don’t know how you play then I might sigh-fold river.

Again, your description of V1 does not suggest a great TAG. It suggests a LAG who can make big moves at any point in the hand. In my experience, these people’s weakness is leveling themselves into bad calls. You absolutely do not have enough information to discount that here.

And I was even basing my original thoughts on when he should fold AA/etc. simply on V2 leading turn/river and totally ignoring the fact that nitty me is still to act behind him (which means a good player should be exiting even easier).

But, yeah, I don't have any real history with V1 and I do sometimes make the mistake of overvaluing the competency of players. Still, my take to this point is that he clearly isn't an idiot.

GcluelessidiotnoobG

Interesting spot GG, thanks for sharing.

Preflop is pretty standard. Flop is fine.

Turn is the decision point I think. If there is a bdfd, I think you have to raise. Otherwise, I think you can call down but you're going to run into the nuts sometimes here 99/88. You have odds to fade turn straights and you're going to boat up sometimes too.

If you're calling turn, you're basically committing to call brick rivers and go broke with your set.

Ap river: You know V2 and you have the read. I think river is a population call at 1/3. I agree with CallMeVernon that V1 is leveling himself into a call.

If V1 is a pseudo-savvy, pseudo-educated player, he is going to base his decision on how high up in his range he is, not the ranges he puts his opponents on. Also a lot of people spend a lot of time studying what makes sense to do heads-up, so I think someone as outwardly competent-looking as V1 is could still be punting multi-way because he doesn’t understand how bad it is for him that you are behind him.

Ugh. Tough spot. We're never good even 50% of the time here, but are we good 20% of the time? I think it's really close, and maybe closer to fold, but I'm never good enough to find it.

Yeah, I know I’ve been arguing for a call, but I do agree it is close. We will be beat a lot.

The more I think about this spot, the more I think it helps to know: does V2 call preflop with the offsuit 65 and 98? Would he play those the same way postflop in this spot?

There's really nothing to suggest he's the biggest nit at the table who's never doing this w/o the nuts so he can have hands like 87, 98, other random 2 pairs, 33 or even slow played over pairs sometimes. Gobbledygeek didn't mention how long he's played with him so if this is the only session or it's only a few, I'm not folding for less than a hp bet here.

This is a call. Even if it's a mistake, it's a small one.

You need to be good 19% of the time. If let's say you are good only 15% of the time, you win $189 every time you call and lose 204 every time you lose. It's a $15 loss

Things get significantly worse if you are only good 10% of the time, but that's overly pessimistic.

If you assign V2 a range of JTs, 56s, 88, 99 and 33, you are good 28% of the time against him.

V1's range is significantly more capped than V2's range, because if he had a hand like JTs or 99 he probably would have been shoving. I don't think V1 has 88 or 33 because he would have raised turn. If I were V1, I would probably be calling with hands that block the straight like 9Ts, TT, JJ and maybe some two pairs like 78s and 89s.

Again, against this combined range you have 26% equity. It's a call.

Edit: My bad. I did all the calculations, based on the turn. With the river 2, your equity is 20%.

I mean, he'd be like the 5th out of 6th callers preflop, calling $14 to win gobs. Pot odds! So I think offsuit 65 and 98 are possible, and probably (?) played the same way postflop. I could see him perhaps donking small on the flop with 98, and perhaps slowing down a little on the river, but I could also see the line he took too.

I'm a little concerned that 33 would more check/raise the flop, although I guess board is dry enough where he could take the line he did.

In the end, he's putting in $250 on the river, which is a decent amount of chips multiway when there's a possible straight out there, so I'm guessing two pear doesn't always play it this way, but sometimes.

GcluelessgettingintotheheadofmyopponentnoobG

I've played with V2 for probably half a dozen years (lol, and I don't even know his name). Yes, he doesn't need the nuts on this line, but he's never got just one pear. Two pear, yup, although I think some of the time (but not 100% of the time) he might play them more cautiously on a straighty board multiway.

Typical older guy who plays nitty postflop and not trying to give his money away, more likely leaning to cautious in big pots postflop and missing value than he is of overplaying mediocre hands.

I think I definitely beat some hands he is doing this with, some of the time. But now I have to parlay that with how often I'm also ahead of V1, who I'm pretty sure knows what is going on (but getting 3.5:1 on the turn and 3:1 on the river, can he even fold AA?).

GcluelessingeneralnoobG

Given reads it's a moderately clear fold HU against v2. No read is 100% ironclad but even if there's a 10% chance he's capable of bluffing and a 50% chance being capable he actually is bluffing, it's nowhere near enough to call half pot.

Does $250 feel "big" to an unknown at these stakes? Unquestionably.

Can you find value hands you beat? Well... In theory yes, 98, 87, and 33. In practice given your read it's extremely unlikely he's doing this for two streets with any of those except 33. Just going by empirical observation and archetypes here.

Given V1's call on top I think it's a pretty clear fold, although V1 also sounds like the type to dutifully call with KK because in GTOland some Bizzarro version of V2 might exploit him. TBH his call actually doesn't change as much as it usually would.

This is a dubious way to approach small stakes live poker. It makes sense only if the river action gives you no info and if... full houses don't beat straights, I guess.

Betting twice out of turn is MUCH more honest than once, across a small stakes population. So the river bet makes it much more likely you are beaten.

And getting 4.4:1 to draw at likely 10 outs, with great implied odds, how could you dream of folding the turn unless someone flips 88 or 99 face up?

Obviously I don't know the guy but I can make a guess based on population and archetypes. Those folks including two pair at 100% in his range here are practicing self deception. It's just wasting money coming up with hands to justify what you want to do viscerally.

Let's stipulate that somewhere you can find a few people like this guy firing away with two pair. It's much more likely he bets two pair on the turn, gets called twice, and goes into check call mode. Don't you see people checking down rivers with MUBS at every one of your sessions? I sure do.

So even if we weight 98 at 30%, 87 at 20%, 33 at 50%, and 65 at 90%, I doubt we have odds without doing the math.

Hi GG. Hard disagree on the "best player at the table" comment. Making plays like this for 100BB~ at 1/3 is a stupid move and is probably going to end up in stacking himself more often then not. Capable of big bluffs part is certainly noteworthy and if hes an unknown I'd assume is a decent online player. I also don't think someone using an A blocker bluff is going to massively overvalue an overpair in this HH. I'd say V1 could certainly have 65s and even JTs not raising cause he didn't want to push you out of the hand. 88 and 98s are also possible.

V2 comments I'd say hes probably going to peel with JT. If he can have 65o here I would highly consider folding otherwise I hope he has bottom set or 98.

At the end of the day Ive seen too much stupid crap at my 1/3 to ever consider folding a set for this price. We don't know V1 very well yet. Nitty guys who only put in lots of money with huge hands can still overvalue their holdings. I don't like it but I would still call.

EDIT: I always comment before I read replies. Vernon has the same line I do. I can't use equilab atm but I'm assuming if V2 can have JTo 98o 97o and 65o in this spot we are still getting too good of a price to fold someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Sadly, yes. The tank-call on the turn gives some hope.

+1.

The board is still dynamic, ie a lot of river cards can change things - pairing the boad, making the straight only need one card, back door flush (if it exists).

Calling turn and folding river is completely fine imo.

One problem--and what makes this so tough--is that on those occasions when we beat V2, we also still have to beat V1.

So let's give V1 a range of TT/99/88. That means in the abstract he has us beat half the time. (I'm giving him all TT to account for other de-weighted overpairs.)

HOWEVER, if we are beating V2 it's because V2 likely has 98. And that blocks V1 from having a better set than us.

So if V2 has a straight (or bigger set), it doesn't matter how often V1 beats us because we lose anyway. But when V2 has 98, now V1 beats us 25% of the time. And when V2 has 33, we're losing to V1 half the time.

So it REALLY matters here whether V2 can have 98, as we not only beat that hand but that hand blocks V1 from having us beat at the same time. And it really matters how much of V1's range beats us, because we have to beat both, so we're multiplying decimals, which makes them smaller quite quickly.

Now let's say V2 can have all 98. That's 9 combos, to go with 3 combos of 33, against 16 combos of 65 and 6 combos of better sets. Looks like if this is correct we're good against V2 12 times out of 34, or 6 out of 17, which looks good UNTIL you multiply that by the chance we're good against V1. Works out like this:

(9/34)(3/4) + (3/34)(1/2) = 27/136 + 3/68 = 33/136 ~ 24.26%

But ranging V2 wrong (e.g. taking a bunch of the 98 out of his range if we think he only plays 98s or doesn't play top 2 like this) REALLY screws with this computation. So I think it's really close...

EDIT: So actually if we think V2 can show up with both the top and bottom end of the straight this turns into a clear fold!

You have 6 years with v2 and zero history with v1.

If v2 always has a set or better here.....we fold. As 99 still takes this same line. So we only beat 33.

If v2 doesn't always have a set or better, we can call, but don't have to.


If v2 can have hands we beat *and* v1 can do this with an overpair......we have 20% or a big more sometimes.



When you give two separate V's the range of JTs, 65s, 99, 88, 33, 87, 98......we drop down to 3%.

You can't just run this in an odds calculator with a single villain with a single range for all these. You need to have two separate ranges plugged in.



Let's say V1 can have JT, as he can c/c with gutter to nuts if he thinks he can get paid. Let's say v2 never has JT. But let's also say v1 never has 87 and checks flop, but v2 can have 87 at times.
V1 never has 33. V2 does. V1 can have 88 and slow play it sometimes, though I'd expect a c/r. But still.

We have no idea if v1 is capable of just cold calling with JT or 65 hoping to get you to come along. We also have no idea if he can have TT+ here.


So, lets give the following ranges:

V1: JTs, 65s, 99, 88, 98s

V2: 65s, 99, 33, 98s

We are something like 5%. But if you start giving v1 some TT+ combinations, get gain a huge amount of equity.




If v2 can have worse........can probably flip a coin here. As we have no idea if v1 can do this with overpairs.


Given zero history with v1....I don't think either calling or folding is wrong. However, folding is *likely* a better option in long run. Since we will have 99 and 88 here a fair amount, along with JT and 65.

To AKQJ10: I think I said we're going broke on brick rivers. I agree we can fold straight rivers if V1/V2 jam. Are you folding some brick rivers unimproved?

To Hitchens: I agree we can fold some rivers. But we're going to fold incorrectly some significant percentage of rivers. Obviously this will be very costly.
What do you think of jamming turn? It's entirely possible that we will fold river incorrectly more times than we will be already beaten by straights on turn here. Our FE may be enough multi-way to compensate for the times we're already behind.

Thanks to both of you for very interesting comments!