$1/$3 game. UTG is a loose aggressive internet kid. Bluffs often and makes moves. BB is a middle-aged blingy guy coming in from a dance club. Just sat down like 10 minutes ago - no real reads. He doubled up with a flopped bottom set on a wet board against some big draw that missed. UTG is down a lot and possibly tilting trying to take down too many pots.

Hero is MP with about $600, BB about the same, UTG about $400.
The hand:

$7 straddle. Folded to me in MP, I call with 44, folded to button who calls, SB folds, BB raises to $17, UTG calls, I call, button calls.

Flop ($50) comes:

KQ4

BB bets something smallish like $17 again, UTG quickly raises to $45.

I want to isolate the UTG player. I feel like if I make a raise that just about gives him the right price, I can get him to semi-bluff all in if he has say, big hearts, AJ, JT or at least bluff a bricked turn. Definitely he stacks off if he has KQ.

I raise it to $120. BB starts talking out loud now... 'a raise and a reraise?', shaking his head, and after a while announces raise and makes it $216 on top. He says something about 'just picking a number' casually to the guy next to him. UTG snapfolds.

Now I realize that UTG was making a move against what looked like a scared/probe bet from JJ or AQ or something, so I can't exclude any releveant cards from BB based on UTG's actions.

The reraise is pretty surprising and my gut feeling is he has KK/QQ. He must be worried that UTG shoves on him or I do, so it seems like he almost has to have KK/QQ or JT/AJ
Holding the draws, it just seems more likely to me for a typical recreational player to either just call or shove outright. Call because they're risk adverse and just hope to make their hand first versus shove because they gambool and think 'you have nothing', like the excitement,etc.

So, I can only really put him on KQ or KK or QQ. 9 combos of KQ versus 6 total of KK & QQ. But, with KQ he's got to be freaked that one of us has 44. Guy's chatting away and giving a speech and smiling seemingly comfortable. Too comfortable for top two perhaps...

Hero??
Who folds here and why? Who shoves and why? Who just calls and why?

Shove, folding is terrible after you've raised. I would have called the flop raise from UTG though.

I think in this spot at these stakes you stuff it and pray to the variance god if he's holding like you say the draw ok GL and If KK/QQ, meh, unlucky sir, redraw to NUT 4

I would fold in this spot. Only thing you beat is AA, and that is not consistent with the live tells. He may have raised his option with KQ, but that is discounted. In my mind KK and QQ include 70% of his range.

Ship it. Were just over even money against a range of KK, QQ, KQ. Those are just his value hands that an occasional recreational player coming from a dance club would be happy/comfortable getting his money in with. He is happy and talkative...so what. You have seen him for 10 minutes, he is a blingy guy, he just doubled up with a set. You do not have a good enough read that he is competent/nitty enough that he needs the nuts here to be comfortable. Add in a few draws/AA or something else dumb and print money.

Where are you playing where this isnt AK KQ as well?

Ship city, pray.

@Ollieeeee - Why just call the UTG? If our first pass read is correct then BB will fold/just call and OTT we can see a bunch of cards that either complete draws in UTG's range or kill our action. It seems like we should grow the pot and charge draws?

I'm more with FitzyII's line of reasoning. I don't think AA or AK is ever here and just don't see how a recreational player with KQ raises the option and then is so comfortable in this spot. He's wondering out loud what we have that we're raising and reraising because it's just idle curiosity - he's not worried in the least whatever the hell it is we have.

This to me is definitely one of those spots where folding bottom set on dryish board is right. If I shove, I'm risking $500 to win $700 assuming he calls with KQ. He has to have KQ like 50% of the time, no? I just don't picture that.

how is this a dry board tho?

also, isnt this a situation where we got what we wanted? im equally scared of 10 6 4 board with 2 hearts

I push, but I can be spewy with sets.

I think you have to add AA and AJ in his range. AA/KK might actually be the most likely holdings with the extra small PFR.

His line does feel super strong here. The thing where they are like "oh a raise and a re raise why so big??????, I raise" even though that makes no f'ing sense if they are trying to rep a weak hand. "Look how weak I am with this bet, I raise because i'm bluffing here with my weak hand" is just so transparent. Also You see so many weak players with these small flop bets to try and get raised.

However,
This guy might not be thinking about your range and you are very strong here. He is acting comfortable but would he feel comfortable with a strong top pair even though he should not? Some weaker players would feel great about re raising AK here even though it's wrong.
How did he play that bottom set hand on the draw heavy board? was he comfortable then? I would consider how he played/acted during the hand when he had bottom set because that can give you a little insight into how he acts with a pretty strong hand.

The bottom line is you do beat strong kings, aces, KQ, big draws, I think he would play AK like this pre flop a least. I think I shove here with no real reads. You could consider waiting for a safe turn to get it in but I like just shoving. Only way I can fold this hand is vs a confirmed super nit that never puts a chip in a pot without the nuts or close to it.

bleh, I normally have a rule of thumb that on the flop you can basically go crazy with sets...but with a 3B preflop, a bet and raise on the flop, im not feeling great about the hand already. If you open 3B and BB stays in the hand, he is sure to have KK/QQ. UTG probably has a combo or KQ, which has outs in its own right.

when he gives a speech, 4 bets, not all in, into a raise and cold 3B, that is a STRONG move. I think he has KK/QQ nearly 100% here. I think its a snap fold.

I think the much more interesting question is whether or not to 3B. I think a very reasonable argument can be made for a 3B (pro: you probably get value from UTG, you know where you are at with BB. Con: if BB stays in the hand you are pretty much dead and thus you lose more money) and for a call (pro: you might get a hand from BB like AK to stay in, if BB 3Bs you can probably fold and avoid losing more money Con: you give a free card to UTG, and scare cards include: any heart, any card 9+, which is pretty much the whole deck). I also think a fold should be considered depending on if BB looks strong.


I think if you are good at reading people, try to get a read on whether or not BB has you beat, and either 3B or fold based on that read. If you arent very good, still try to get a read on BB, but either 3B or call based on that read.

tough spot, good hand to ask for help on.

so sick

however in a straddled pot with less than 100 BB you cant fold a set on this type of board

shove and if he has KK QQ then nh

obviously he has KK QQ or some type of royal draw or A4 hh but you have a set for under 100 bigs

all in

Yeah... It is pretty sick.

Fish do this type of stuff a lot. Like when they raise and flop a set they will bet noticeably small hoping to induce a raise and then when raised they 3bet. It is like NEVER an overpair or TPTK since with those hands they just bet "standard" which will be like between 2/3 and full pot.

sucks, still, I'm not folding. I also raise pre-flop.

Why? BB is way more likely to take the preflop and flop lines with QQ+ and he is any hand on a T64hh board.

You cant fold.

You know literally nothing about this guy. Also, club + bling + middle age just screams weak player to me. A weak player can easily show up with AK, AA here etc, you beat to many value hands he can do this with as well as draws to fold.

flopped a set get it in. if you lost thats unfortunate.

To the posters above - this decision isn't for 100BB or less, it's for almost 200BB, which is why it's pretty annoying.

@Tomark... Your post is confusing, are you seriously suggesting 3betting or folding to just the $45 raise based on reads I get from BB that are prior to me taking an action?! Like really? How do I induce that kind of read/telegraph. Sounds Jedi mindtrick.

@JHair... I'd be less afraid with this action on a flop of T64hh. More overpairs and big hearts fit in his range and none of them beat me on that board. Big str8 flush draws almost never show up here and he's unlikely to play TT/66 like this pf.

you have a little more than 100bb's effective, + lots of dead money from a villan that bailed.

LOL dont fold especially on a wet board.

This is KK, QQ, or AJ hearts. I puke/fold.

If the flop were A-K-4 I'd stack off hoping for AK, but you just don't see KQ played like this either.

What are you doing if we have AJ hearts? what about KQ? Calling?

Well AJ hearts does better vs his range than bottom set (JT hearts is even better), but I'm likely just calling the first raise, because this flop smashes his preflop range so I wouldn't want to go crazy and get 4-bet.

haha, then for you, its 3B or call. I think 3B or call based on reads is the standard move here. Im not saying you can always get a read, but fish do occasionally telegraph huge tells in hands like these.

You certainly can get a read from villans on how strong they are. If V has the absolute nuts and already saw a raise in front of him, and is seeing you considering cutting out another raise, his entire insides are going to be screaming "please raise, please raise, please raise!!!!!" I'd go to cut out a raise and then glance over at BB. You'll be surprised at how often he is sitting there with some ****eater grin on his face.

with a raise in front, it should be easier than normal to tell if he has a monster. If he doesnt have enough to continue after the first raise, he is going to show very little interest in the hand.

AA and kq are two hands that are very likely, i think this would be bad here to fold a set.

Results?

What about his preflop raise size? I suppose we don't have any information on what is/is not typical for him to raise with big pairs? MOST live players aren't making it only 2.5x out of position with a big pocket pair.

I think the key is what you wrote in the initial headline, "...reads ever strong enough to fold." Yes, they can be strong enough but not after 10 minutes.

I've seen enough people spew off with top/top thinking it's the nuts (especially rec-type players coming in from the club) that I don't think I can ever find a fold here. There are players I would fold bottom set to, but they are people I've played enough with and I'm never folding to someone who just came off the street who I don't really have a read on.