Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
Why aren't we shoving? There's no draw and only 1 7 left in the deck. The guy with the 7x will call and be drawing nearly dead. The guy without the 7 has a pocket pair and flatting just lets him turn a boat and double through you.
I played a hand somewhat similar to this one a week or so ago in a 1/2 game. Villain ($500) raised to $15 UTG, one caller in MP, I call
OTB (I cover) half stack with $115 calls in BB. Flop is T22, but with a spade draw. BB ships $100, UTG calls, MP folds and I'm in the same spot as OP in this hand. If I call, and a spade comes, I'm not getting any more from UTG. If I raise over an over bet and a call, I look super strong.
In the end, I went with my read that he would read a raise as bluffer than a flat. So I shipped. His reaction was hilarious. He jumped up out of his seat and said "wow this is the sickest spot of my life. Then he paused a bit and said "ok, you never have TT here; no one shoves TT here"...and then called after talking it through for about two minutes saying I had a big draw (he had AA, LDO)
The board texture and action are different enough that I don't think they are terribly closely analogous, but I do think that there are some reasons to consider a raise here. Mainly because the guy with a 7 is going to look at his kicker and not be happy if he doesn't boat OTT. If he has 97, for ex, he probably feels like he's only losing to A7, but an 8, 6, 5 or maybe even a 4 OTT could potentially slow him down. So there are three 2s that screw you, and at least 16 cards he doesn't want to see OTT, almost half the deck.
So I'd be thinking hard about raising here to get more value before a scare card comes. It's also barely possible here that someone might spew because "no one ever raises a 7 here." Probably unlikely, but it for sure can't happen if you don't raise.
I'm NOT saying I definitely raise here. Only that I think about it, and I don't think over calling should be automatic here. I know I have both called and raised in this exact spot, but I'm not prepared to hazard a guess as to which has proved more profitable.
Last edited by mpethybridge; 08-22-2015 at 06:56 PM.