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1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board 1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board

03-13-2015 , 07:55 AM
Hero is new to the table with $297 and villains are unknown with over $500 (max buy-in is 300 at this table). The main villain is a white male that looks about 40 and the other villain is a male that looks maybe 10 years older than that. I've only seen about 2 hands and neither villain showed any aggression in those hands.

Preflop
Villain 1 limps in EP, hero raises to 16 in MP with AA, villain 2 calls in LP, villain 1 calls

Flop is QJT($48)

Villain 1 bets 40, hero???
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 10:02 AM
I recommend you hate life a little and then fold. Not having any read on villain just makes this too painful to continue. Against a generic unknown you have to put a lot of JJ/TT in his range after the limp/call preflop then donk flop and you have no idea what else to put in his range. The other big problem you have here is that it's very easy to lose money to better hands but hard to make money from worse.

With a read on villain I would often call flop and see if they continue on turn.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 10:32 AM
Best case scenario:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
100,980 trials (Exhaustive)
board: TJQ
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcAs45.40% 43,9403,816
AK, 89, QQ, JJ, TT, QJ, QT, JT, KQ, AQ, Q9, J954.60% 53,2243,816


More realistic scenario:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
77,220 trials (Exhaustive)
board: TJQ
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcAs37.92% 27,6103,339
AK, 89, QQ, JJ, TT, QJ, QT, JT, KQ, AQ62.08% 46,2713,339

We really don't have great equity... even if you start throwing in combo draws, we're really not in good shape

Also, there are very few good runouts for AA on this board. The cards that improve our hand (the Ace and the King), are scare cards that won't make us any money.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 10:47 AM
Just fold. One of the worst boards for your hands.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 11:09 AM
I would probably just fold the flop. There's already a zillion two pair hands out there, plus pair + draw hands are doing just fine. Plus we could almost be drawing to a gutshot already. Plus we still have the other guy to react behind us.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 11:17 AM
Fold. You'll be folding the best hand to KQ a lot here, but not often enough to make this a bad fold.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 12:19 PM
Fold.

Being readless on V images, the line of ~PSB into 2 players looks stronger than your over pair. There is one yet to act and even a K turn will likely halt action.

Could be KQ, but we have no info.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 12:44 PM
PF: OK
F: (3) handed. Pot is $51. SPR is 5.5. So V1 donks 3/4P into two people including the PF raiser. What's this guy's preflop limp/call range? Probably includes hands that are beating us like: AK, QJ, JT, 98, QQ, TT, JJ. Does he donk out 3/4P with a straight, two pair, or a set? Does he donk out with pair plus draw hands like KQ, KJ , KT, or T9? Does he donk here with a hand like AQ? Of course the questions are rhetorical; just thinking out loud.

Man, this spot sucks. Well, we have blockers to pair plus draw hands. I guess we need to decide right now if we are willing to stack off with this hand. I don't know, I guess I just fold, maybe that's too nitty.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 12:46 PM
pretty easy fold. SA/WB with a player left to act.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 07:10 PM
I think the flop is an easy call.

I'm definitely not folding facing one bet on this board readless.

We have no reason to think the villain behind us has anything special (when he calls, I think we have the best hand vs. him very often).

We're getting > 2:1 on a call. Even if we're behind, 4 K's give us the nuts, 2 A's give us top set.

Probably would fold turn to another sizable bet.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 07:51 PM
I just fold here, outside a K coming on the turn we aren't gonna like many turns.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-13-2015 , 09:01 PM
What an interesting thread!

When I bet KQ in this spot I never get aces to fold.

When I look at all the donk bets I've seen in my life very very few are the nuts.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-14-2015 , 02:05 AM
I think folding is horrible here facing one donk bet from a limp/caller. The question is raise or call. Readless I would tend to err on the side of what the avg villain donks with, draws and weak made hands.

KT, KJ, KQ all make a lot of sense, unfortunately on this board 89s and QJ,QT,JTs likely play the hand the same way. My default play would be to raise a donk bet, but in this spot you have a villain behind still to act and the flop does hit a limp/caller pretty hard.

Also if you did raise, say to $110ish, it's very likely he'll jam his entire range (combos that you beat, two pair/straights that have you crushed) we don't have enough info to know if we can sell AK to this guy yet.

I'd call and evaluate from there.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-14-2015 , 03:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
When I look at all the donk bets I've seen in my life very very few are the nuts.
+1

Everyone goes for teh expert slowplay with flopped two pair.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-14-2015 , 03:55 AM
Call and evaluate further action. Folding is super nitty.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-14-2015 , 11:36 AM
Call and evaluate turn....too early to give up on hand.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-14-2015 , 11:52 AM
y'all really need to evaluate how sa/wb works, especially with a player left to act and the fact the way we improve our hand either doesn't actually help (an ace) or makes everyone play face up (a king).

You can make a case for calling heads up. With the player left to act behind, it's not really close.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-14-2015 , 12:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by patchohare
Also if you did raise, say to $110ish, it's very likely he'll jam his entire range (combos that you beat, two pair/straights that have you crushed) we don't have enough info to know if we can sell AK to this guy yet.
If you raised to 110, were shoved on, and someone showed you 2-pair, rather than being crushed, you've have a very +EV call.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys
y'all really need to evaluate how sa/wb works, especially with a player left to act and the fact the way we improve our hand either doesn't actually help (an ace) or makes everyone play face up (a king).

You can make a case for calling heads up. With the player left to act behind, it's not really close.
If you're folding based on the player behind, who could have 66, it sounds like we're folding based on the board not the action, correct?

It's really odd to me that on a monotone board, everyone here says that you can't fold because everyone is bluffing (even though you could easily be drawing to runner/runner outs) but here it's an obvious fold when someone can easily be value-betting worse hands.

Last edited by au4all; 03-14-2015 at 12:15 PM.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote
03-14-2015 , 12:22 PM
I would call the flop bet. I tend to think if someone flops a straight or trips here there is a higher tendency that they will check to try the sneaky trap. This lead out is more likely Pair+Straight Draw or 2 Pair. I would call and see what transpires behind us and OTT. I think folding here getting a little better than 2:1 is slightly too nitty.
1/3 NL: AA faces donk on a threatening board Quote

      
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