Quote:
Originally Posted by Stupidbanana
I like a lead OTR for block sizing. Maybe 30$. Fold if raised big. Call if he minclicks. AP is easy fold. Guess it was air but oh well, just means our sets will over-realize when we include premiums in our checking range. Also if the V is described as competent JJ can fall into a 4-bet range here pre at some frequency.
I typically take this super-small block bet sizing with hands that are either super strong and are trying to induce a raise, or hands that might be best and don't want to face a large bet if we check, but will be easy to fold to a raise, because the board ran out in such a way that the nuts changed on the river, and either we or V could have made the nuts.
JJ doesn't fit the bill here. QJ would be the nuts on the river, and we double-block that hand, making it less likely V will come over the top with a raise. We don't want to bet small and induce a spaz-raise that will put us in the blender with a hand that has this much showdown value.
If we bet 40% pot, we can get value from all of V's TX, lower PP's, and hands like A9ss, if he 3B's that wide from the BTN pre - all hands that are probably just going to check back. We might get QQ or some weak KX to fold at some low frequency, but we're probably getting called by and losing to those hands.
The way this played, it looks like V didn't like our flop call on a K-high board, was pot-controlling on the turn, and is either bluffing or betting a pretty strong hand for value, having decided we wouldn't check the river if we had 2P+.
Hard to see what V's bluffs would be here, and it's doubtful he'd jam with very many better 1P hands, so it looks like he's got 2P+.