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<img / middle set versus raise <img / middle set versus raise

10-04-2023 , 02:11 PM
Don't remember exact positions Hero possibly in BB with red 99, V is old white man in CO.
Several players including V limp, hero makes it $20, only V calls.
Flop $40 is Ac9s2c.
Hero bet $20, V call.
Turn $80 is (Ac9s2c) 4d.
Hero bet $50, V raise $150.
Hero has $350 left in stack so another $200 on top of V raise.
Hero?

V plays relatively conservatively from what I've seen, only seen him bet and call with good hands. Imagine it's a lot of AQ+ and two pair+, possibly some flush draws he didn't think he had a good price on so he raised instead, but no data on how he plays draws.
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10-04-2023 , 02:28 PM
I would probably just see a flop in the BB although that's just where I mostly happen to draw the line preflop with pairs.

I would probably make a PSB on the flop. If he has a smallish pair of any sort, he's mostly going to fold it to any reasonable bet size. So let's just charge his Ax / flush draw which are very unlikely to fold to a single bet.

Highly doubt this villain type is raising just TP on the turn. So this is mostly two pairs (the only real ones are Ax types) or a set (AA very unlikely played this way preflop) and once and a while an unlucky 53sooted (which we still have outs against). I'm probably aiming to go broke here and so I would just shove now before scare cards come which could perhaps enable him to fold the river.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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10-04-2023 , 02:40 PM
Well the only hands beating you are AA and 35 right? Neither really fits your read here. We aren't considering folding so I guess the decision is jam vs call

I would jam. If we call and then x river we may get less value from his 2p type hands if the flush completes

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10-04-2023 , 02:52 PM
Were the folds before villain called or after, because if before and he was the last one, it's more likely he's so playing Aces, if there were others to act he may have Limp/RR.

Regardless, I'm probably just jamming. 35 feels unlikely, and if has Aces so be it.
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10-04-2023 , 02:52 PM
Yeah I think the decision is either to call and lead river all in or all in now. Cause he probably checks back a lot of Two pair after I call his raise on the turn.

V was last to act to my $20 preflop I believe.
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10-04-2023 , 03:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ylizarin
Yeah I think the decision is either to call and lead river all in or all in now. Cause he probably checks back a lot of Two pair after I call his raise on the turn.

V was last to act to my $20 preflop I believe.
I guess that makes it marginally more likely he has Aces, but even then it's only a small part of his Limp/Call range. I still Jam without too much thought. We want the 2p and draws to make the tough call right now.
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10-04-2023 , 04:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hitchens97
Regardless, I'm probably just jamming. 35 feels unlikely, and if has Aces so be it.
yup this, and he's probably raising aces otf for protection like old white guys love to do.

stacks aren't deep enough to be considering folding so we may as well gii now when he's most likely to call rather than flat then let him see a river and fold if we lead out. There's a lot of hands he would call a jam with that we beat like aces up, lower sets, or even AK.
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10-04-2023 , 11:41 PM
Shove. If you're going to trap a hand here, it should be aces. Unblocking Ax and aces up, shove.

Only critique is - what was our plan to get all the money in if we didn't get raised on the turn? I think we should slightly overbet the turn planning to jam most rivers. Something like going $100, then pot will be $280 and we have $300 behind to comfortably jam the river.
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