1/3: Middle Pair and Open Ender with Wettest Turn Possiblr
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,876
Hero is a 30ish wg reg with a beard. Just sat an orbit ago. I haven't been very involved in anything up to this point.
Villain is MAWG who I've never seen before. I just saw him cbet AJo after missing flop. Got called. Turn went check check. He got check/called by 2nd pair after bluffing river and lost the medium sized pot.
Effective stacks about $200. 6 handed. Hero has QTo in CO and raises to 13. Villain calls. Else fold.
Flop $27: JT9hh. I bet 16 and villian calls.
Turn $59: 8h. Hero bets 40. Villain makes it $85. Hero?
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 6,288
Absent any other information or history on villain this is a fold. Villain's raise commits him to the pot if he is on a draw. This is far more likely to be a chop, chop+draw or better made hand then a bluff or semi-bluff. Few villains will min raise to find out where they are or as a bluff or even semi-bluff.
That is assuming you don't have the Qh. If you do then this is a harder decision but I would still lean fold. It may be that you have the chop+draw now but it's too likely villain has a better draw or a better made flush.
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,876
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,876
Any other thoughts on this? Is it just a clear fold?
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,137
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,876
Thanks guys. Appreciate the feedback
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 36,797
I might even raise smaller preflop if I think this will narrow the field. I'm really trying to walk the line between raising to narrow the field while at the same time not trying to raise too much to setup an awkward SPR where we might almost feel committed with TP (which we easily could with these smaller stacks). If there's not a lot of raising going on, I might even open limp this (where we could still steal the pot often postflop).
Against a guy who seems perhaps a little aggro/bluffy (which this guy is), I wouldn't hate checking back an early street to get him to do his thing. So I wouldn't hate a flop check. If I'm betting the flop (which I don't mind either), it's probably to check back the turn to setup a river bluffcatch.
I would check back this turn. The flush draw got there and he could have a bigger straight. Is he really going to call with a worse hand? Two pair / set probably would have raised this drawy flop, so unless he made this hand on the turn, unlikely (and even then it might not pay to hit a 4 outer). An idiot end straight might pay off, but maybe not on this board. And he could also bluff us (where we'd probably have to fold on this board). I'd check back to bluffcatch the river.
As played, I think we have to fold. All flushes are beating us, as is KQ, so we're mostly just hoping to call in order to chop (which is never a good thing) or hoping he's bluffing / betting idiot end of straight. He's basically minraised with small stacks behind, so it really looks like he's looking for a call.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 3,282
Check the flop.
What position is villain?
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 4,876
Yeah that's my bad, villain is button.