Quote:
Originally Posted by Ancient Alien
I agree w/o a 5! Bet range pre, this board also favors us as well.
And also agree, majority of players at 1/2-2/5 aren’t turning two pair and top pair into bluffs, so over folding in huge river raised pots, generally the correct play, especially at these stakes.
Thanks for the feed back. I appreciate it.
When I was playing 1/3, it was very unusual to see 5B's, because most opens were 4x or 5x, most 3B's were 3x or more, and so 4B's were just jams for 100-150bb's. It would be open to $15, call, call, 3B to $75-$100, and a fold or 4B jam for $300-$500.
Because of all the loose action and multi-way pots, I had a limp-3B range from EP, which included AA, KK, AK, and A5s, especially when there were more aggro / squeeze-happy players in LP or the blinds. I wanted to induce more limps behind, then a big open from some aggro V, which I could then 3B, putting all the pressure back on them with their weaker range.
But most 1/3 players aren't 600bb deep, as you are here. With the stack depth here, I think we can have a 5B range, with some hands we might fold to a 6B, just like my limp-3B range had some hands I'd fold to a 4B jam (A5s). Here, AKo, AQs, KQs, and A5s might be the hands in that range that we 5B-fold, whereas QQ-AA and AKs are hands we're just going to go with.
Having a 5B range means we have to have a 3B range that just calls a 4B, rather than raising. Maybe 99-JJ is in that range.
If we have a 5B range at this depth, which includes AK and QQ, but not 99-JJ, because those are just 3B-calls, then I'd think our range is even stronger on this board, where we could have some flopped or turned sets that become boats or quads on the river, but fewer straights, because our AK would have 5B pre.
Even if we have a 5B range pre, V might not know that. If we don't know what V's 4B range from the BB is, then we're sort of hand-cuffed on this run-out. An overly aggro V might think we're playing 3B or fold from the SB with a wider range, allowing him to get spicy with QJs, JTs, T9s, and 99, in addition to justifiably 4B'ing with TT-QQ in the BB.
Our hand seems too strong to fold, but when we gave up control of the betting when we just flat called pre, we allow an aggro V to get here with thick value (boats) as well as bluffs. That's why I said it was somewhat surprising V continued to barrel off after we called the whole way. I would expect our straights to lose here a lot when the board pairs on the river.
I might actually prefer to donk lead this turn rather than go for the check-raise, whether we have a 5B range pre or not, to avoid letting V check back and see a free river card. My thinking is he's not always folding his 2P and rarely folding his sets, and it's going to be entirely face up if we donk-lead the river on a brick. I'd rather take back control of the betting, so we can make sure we get bets in on both the turn and the river.