Quote:
Originally Posted by Weapon X-raise
I played with V in one or two other sessions and he seemed competent. He’s not a regular where I play. However, we did get into a hand where he claimed to have 3! Me w 96cc from the sb. So, I’m not sure exactly how wide he’s calling my 4! Oop.
I def may have lost some value on turn. I felt like he may have had some 2 pair combos, that we were already behind, so didn’t really see the point in raising and if we’re just targeting AK, that’s a very narrow range (since K on flop and me holding two A). When he leads turn, his sizing was definitely indicative of a block bet, but could have been a bet to induce a raise (if he had a strong value hand).
I was very shocked to see AKo when we got to showdown.
Take this for whatever it's worth...
Hand-reading is an under-developed skill at low stakes, and something you may want to work on. It's mostly about logic, but our actions can help define our opponents hands.
When facing aggression, I ask myself, "what strong hands is my opponent repping, and are those hands consistent with his actions so far?"
So, applying that logic to this hand...you raised pre from the BTN over one limp. That doesn't mean much. He 3B to >3x your open from the SB. That's supposed to be a reasonably strong range. You then 4B to >2.5x his 3B. That should be pretty strong. And he called. So his continue range here should be fairly strong, when he's calling a 4B OOP.
At low stakes, when we're playing 4B pots, the ranges become fairly face-up.
He'd probably 5B KK pre, at least some of the time. But maybe not as often at this stack depth. He MIGHT continue with TT or 99, but he'd probably fold those hands to your 4B at some frequency. He really shouldn't have any 2P on the flop. His 3B-call range pre-flop is going to be heavily weighted towards JJ-QQ, AK, and maybe some slivers of AQs/AJs.
If we think V is wide, and often getting out of line, we can assign him some SC's, but we shouldn't just take his word on it. We should see the proof in what he's shown down. Even if he did 3B light with some SC's in prior hands, was that from the SB, or LP, and did he call a 4B with them from the SB? My guess is that he might 3B light, but he's not calling 4B's anywhere near as light from OOP.
So, street by street, we're losing to sets and some 2P on the flop, but he shouldn't have many, if any sets or 2P, and all of those hands should want to raise when we c-bet less than 1/3 pot. Otherwise, we're ahead of his range that wants to just check-call here.
When he just check-calls flop, I'm taking all the sets and 2P out of his range, as well as under-cards to the board, and all the 1P hands with low kickers, like 98s. I'm just giving him a lot of TP hands, like AK or KQ, or some AX with some backdoor draw potential, like AQ/AJ.
The turn card doesn't scare me, other than thinking he might be drawing to a straight now, with AQ or AJ, or possibly he got way out of line pre with KJ. The only hands I'm thinking about here are AK/KQ that want to pot-control, AQ/AJs that want to set their own price to draw, or KJ that's feeling better now that it has the straight draw to go with its weak top pair.
I find it particularly suspicious that his turn bet is the same exact size as our flop c-bet. That smells weak. It doesn't smell like he's trying to induce a spaz-raise, because why would he?
The 8 doesn't really change anything, in that QJ was already there and could have x/r'd on the flop, and it's not all that likely we're going to have KK that wants to blast off here. We're more likely to have AK, AA, or maybe QQ - hands that might be too scared to raise. For this reason, I'd want to raise AA for value, and occasionally raise QQ as a bluff (double-blocking QJ, and not believing he's got any KK in his range on the turn), if I think he can fold TP to a raise.
This is where our actions come in. If we just flat call, we're not doing anything to define his hand. Flat calling would be fine if we had KK, and we were sure he never had AQ or AJ. But if we raise, we can get value from AK/KQ, and deny equity from AQ/AJ.
If we make it $450 to go when he bets $110, he's going to call a lot with AK, and will have to think about whether or not he wants to continue with everything else. A lot of the hands we might be worried about on the river are going to be folded out when we raise turn, so we can take them out of his range when he calls. If we raise turn, he shouldn't have AJ on the river.
As played, when we just flat call the turn, it's hard to figure out what our range now looks like. Maybe we get here with some JJ+/AK that will sigh-call this small river bet. I probably wouldn't raise now, because he could get to the river with AJ.
