8-handed 1/3 $300 max buy-in. Game has been playing fairly loose passive for about the past hour or so. Lots of open limps that either fold to a single raise and/or a single flop bet. My 3!'s which have been mostly from late(st) position(s) that do include some wide/light holdings will even get small open raises to fold PF.
Villain is new to table. Has played only a few orbits up to the hand in question. Demonstrated a slight streak of aggression using RFI and 3! to pick-up dead money once (one player had also posted behind the button). Played well post flop on the few hands he played which went to flop; lost one hand with AKs vs. short stack pf shove with 88. Just topped off prior to hand in question.
Hero (CO) - $300 eff. vs. V1
V1 (BTN)
Folds to me, I open to $12 (which is fairly standard in this game) with T
T
. V1 3! to $40. Folds back around to me - I think briefly about 4!, but don't know enough about Villain's tendencies to guess whether this would be effective and my middling pair is difficult to play post-flop OOP. Since I am opening late and V1 is 3! OTB vs. my late opening, I think his range can still be somewhat wide. I call.
Flop: 8
6
2
(Pot $84)
This flop is great for my actual hand but doesn't really hit either of our ranges very hard, but I think I have more 88 & 66 combos in my range than V1. I play in flow and check, V1 down bets $30. He can c-bet with a good portion of his range and this sizing doesn't need to be too large to get me to fold all my misses that don't include FDs; I would expect him to bet ~2/3 PSB with hands like 99-KK for value & protection, I would expect ~1/3 to 1/2 PSB with AA. I call.
Turn: 3
(Pot $144)
This is a super brick and nothing should have changed. I know V1 can't expect me to have QQ+ from the PF action, but I elect the stop-n-go route, betting $90 to charge FD's w/overs and protection from any other overs combos that would otherwise take the free card IP. V1 will only be getting final max pot odds of ~7/2 for his $140 that he'd have left behind if he calls with any draw(ing) hand - I don't know what combos justify a ~22% equity. I will have to reluctantly fold if raised, as I could only be beating a (semi)bluff raise IP and V1 could still make a hand on the river to which I lose.
River: 3
(Pot $324)
This is another good brick that shouldn't have changed anything. I decide to check, as I don't see any worse hands that can call - I suppose shoving the river to look like missed flush draw bluff can only be a value play against something like A
K
with which V1 elected not to semi-bluff raise my turn lead bet and I'd have to know that V1 can call that light as bluff catcher (which I didn't know at the time due to so little info). Also, I have a pretty good bluff catcher if V1 elects to try and bluff himself. V1 takes a few moments, but ultimately checks back. I open my hand and V1 shows down JJ.
Questions:
1. It's a little bit of a cooler, but does anyone have input on my line and/or see where I can do anything different that might change the outcome?
2. Does the stop-n-go play on the turn make my hand pretty face-up at that point? If V1 sees this he could pretty well maximize his value against me on the river?
3. Would I have just been committed to be taken to Value Town if V1 had elected to bet his hand on the river as almost any bet of his, including up to a jam reverses the tables to me where I only need to have ~22 equity (at absolute worst) to call?
4. I had thought about going for a check raise on the turn if V1 bet, but V1's stack size would have made that play difficult to have any success as any bet size he opts for would leave him pot-committed with all but complete air?
Last edited by sam7595; 06-01-2021 at 01:16 AM.