Quote:
Originally Posted by fizzypants
I know I will get flamed for not 3betting JJ in SB preflop but I feel EXTREMELY UNCOMFORTABLE with this one hand OOP, preflop and postflop.. If I 3bet big, everyone folds and if I 3bet small, the initial raiser gets good odds to call IP.. and I get screwed postflop..
I feel like I'm either going to win small or lose big on these exact flops OOP..
I really don't know what to say to you at this point. If you don't see why and how you played this hand badly, after talking out some of the same scenarios in your similar posts, I don't think that there is much more the forum can say to you. Instead of trying to tell you why you are thinking about this hand wrong, let's just look at what happened in this particular hand, shall we?
You called preflop with maybe the best hand (we aren't entirely sure what the CO raised here, right?). That call cost you 12 dollars, right? OK so far, we certainly had more than 20% equity, making our call +EV. Our share of the 60 dollar pot is certainly more than 12 bux.
Then the flop comes, and we have an OESD AND a heart flush draw smack in the middle of limp/callers ranges. We now check and call a 40 dollar allin, and the pot is still 5 way, uh oh. What happened? It would be hard indeed to find a range for all the other players in which our JJ still has 20% equity on this flop. If UTG really had 2 pair, he's now got 35% equity and any flush draw with an overcard to our Js has about the same. That's 70% equity, and we are fighting with 2 other players for the remaining 30%. Give one of them an OESD, and we lose half of that 30%. Our positive EV call preflop has now turned into a BIG -EV call OTF.
Also, what happens now if UTG raises allin to protect his 2 pair, after we have called the 40? Now we fold (I hope that is obvious), but we have now put 52 dollars into the pot (1/6 of our starting stack), and gotten nothing for it. What happens when someone decides that it's a nice big pot, and they will stab at it OTT, and we are forced to fold then, maybe? This is not a recipe for winning poker, I hope you see that.
As it so happened, we got lucky
this time, and the turn checked through, and we at least got 60 bux OTR to offset what we already put in (you never said who won the main pot, or if it was chopped), but yeah, we are only pulling a win out here maaaaybe 11% of the time, at best.
Oh, and yeah, betting this turn or raising the flop after not 3 betting preflop are both SARS, seriously. I hope you understand why.