1/3, Saturday night, 8-handed. Very spazzy, soft table - seemingly.

Having another awful card-dead day and on the few hands played cannot connect.
It's my 12th consecutive session without flopping a set on a pair - this has to be some record. My average is one per session.


Hero ($300) opens UTG to $20 with red aces.

VillainA (60yo white male, 60/0, $800) calls in cutoff. He is obese and wearing a flannel shirt in rather unkempt way. He hasn't raised a single hand, but limp calls most of them.
VillainB (55yo white male, 40/5, $400) calls in the BB

Flop (3 players, $61): Qh Jc 8d

VillainB checks, Hero bets $35, VillainA calls, VillainB folds

Turn (heads-up, $131): 6h

Hero bets $85, Villain goes all in

Hero ??
Interested in comments about this spot and also sizing throughout the hand.

This seems like a spot where the “Baluga theorem” applies: You should strongly reevaluate the strength of a 1-pair hand facing a raise on the turn.

The fact VilA is super passive is icing on the cake.

So fold.

Nice hand, otherwise. Sizing looks good to me.

I like the sizing. If he calls the turn, there’s $160 left to ship into $300 if that’s what we want to do.

As played we have one pair on a board that has a straight and various realistic two pairs on top of all sets because he doesn’t 3bet QQ/JJ pre. You’re getting 3:1 on a call and the only way you’re good 25% of the time is if he tends to misread his hands.

I limp in but that's me.

Preflop result is very meh, imo. The SPR is a small ~4.5 and we're OOP to at least one player, so anyone can make us play for stacks trivially. And yet we offered both opponents non-horrendous IO of 16+:1. But, if this is a good spot for you, then obviously keep doing this.

I think I'm ok with the flop bet. Still, we'll be trivially committed by the river, and we'll have to ask ourselves whether we want to be (a lot of this will depend on our image and our opponents image).

Sorta ditto for the turn. If our opponent just calls the turn bet, we'll have about a 1/2 PSB left OOP (feeling committed on blank rivers?). If our opponent is ahead and just flats the turn, it is very likely he gets our stack. As played, not enough opponents (especially ones who play passively) raise later streets with just one pear, especially against preflop raisers (who are tight looking?) who look like they are barreling for stacks. So I fold.

Ginb4"Ifold,opponentsays'nicefold'andtablesKK',ldo G

I am definitely calling. The flop was already quite drawish and I expect a villain of this description to raise if he has hit two pair. Villain could have quite a broad range of hands here, possibly the heart added a draw to his hand (he could have something like JThh or 98hh), or possibly he has top pair, is not going to fold and is shoving now because of how wet the board is starting to get. I would not be even slightly shocked if he turned over something like QTo in this spot. Of course he could have flopped the nuts or maybe the 6 made him two pair, that's life, but I don't think the fact that he doesn't raise preflop means that he is not the type to get stubborn with a one pair hand here.