Quote:
Originally Posted by jack4you
You think if you were to bet 30-35 dollars on the turn he would just call with trip aces given that if I had a single heart I could draw out on him for cheap on the river?
I would think if I bet small and he has an ace he may raise me on the turn bet, has it been your experience that a weak ace here would just call a small bet?
Good questions.
I think if he was worried about you being on a flush draw on the turn, he would have continued betting. It would be weird and unusual for him to check, if he was scared of you being on a draw. I'd expect him to barrel here, for value, with trips, and boats, and often some worse flushes. MAYBE he slows down if he has A9, to get trappy.
We're starting $250 eff, there's $80 in the pot, and we've got $210 behind. If he's just going with his hand, he might barrel for $60 or more, and if he's worried about you calling a bet that size, he might over-bet. I would think his boats just want to keep betting, just small enough to keep you in the hand.
If we bet small, when the board is AAJ, and the turn brings in the flush, I just don't see him raising that much with trips. We could have a boat, or better trips, or the flush. He might raise with a boat, but otherwise, I think trips just calls the turn, and hopes to boat up on the river, or that we check back on a brick, or that we bet small, so he can call without losing his whole stack.
There's always a chance he spazzes and jams trips when we bet small, and we have to figure out if he's jamming a boat, but that's poker. I would think boats are going to just flat call at least some of the time, to donk or check-raise river. Like, if we bet $30-$35, and he jams for $210, he's got to be at least a little worried we might fold. If he's going to raise with a boat, I'd think he's raise a smaller size.
Lets say we bet $30-$35, and he raises us, but small, say, $100, leaving himself $110 behind. There'll be $210-$215 in the pot, and we'll have to call off another $70-$75. At that point, I dunno. This might come down to our reads on V, trying to figure out if he's more likely to be milking us when he has a boat, or hedging by betting small for protection, mostly hoping we only call, or just fold.
Kind of reminds me of a hand I played last week - I raised pre from the BTN with AsTc. V called from the BB. V x/r'd my flop c-bet of 1/2 pot on Ah9s8s, but took a somewhat small sizing, less than 4x. I've played with this V before, and seen him take some unorthodox lines, such that I thought he'd be more likely to donk bet 2P or a set on this board, not check-raise.
I had TPGK with a blocker to the NFD and the NSD, and a BDFD/BDSD of my own, and thought he was likely tilted from losing a big pot right before this hand, so I couldn't fold. The turn paired the 9, and he barreled, but down-bet slightly, only leaving himself a 40% PSB behind.
His line didn't make a ton of sense for a flopped set or 2P that turned a boat. But it didn't NOT make sense for a boat, either. I could see him taking this line with A8 that got counterfeited on the turn, or a combo draw, or just a worse TP that was protecting against a flush draw, or even possibly a better TP that was slow-played instead of 3B pre.
I didn't know what to make of it. I just realized that if I called the turn, I'd be getting around 3.5 to 1 on a call if he jammed river, and probably couldn't fold. I didn't see the point in jamming, because there was a chance he might give up and check, or go for a check-raise, and I could just check back, or bet for value if I somehow boated up with a miracle ace from space.
He ended up jamming river on a brick. I called. He said he was bluffing on the flop and got there on the turn, before rolling over Kd9d. My read was right. He was definitely tilted making that play on the flop, and just got lucky on the turn. I think he knew his line didn't make much sense, which is why he could take it for value, knowing I'd have to pay him off.
I could put him on a boat for value, and a lot of worse hands I beat. I could not put him on turned trips, second kicker, in a million years. But once I called the flop, the only way for me to get away from my hand would be if he jammed turn. Once he down-bets, giving me a price, I was never getting away.
It's hard to figure out what to do in spots like this, where the SPR drops off rapidly, the value ranges are super-narrow, and the bluffs hard to find. I think at these shallow SPR's, we're just not getting away from strong-but-possibly-second-best-hands.
Don't know if any of that helps. Hopefully it does.