It's really not a good idea on this card. We have sets and 2p that have to gii when sized this way/bet bet along with some air that can't win that we'd check-give up or shove with. There aren't many bet small/checking hands left once we bet turn outside of AA/AQ.
He really has a ton of SD worthy hands, some strong hands that we now outvalue, and maybe some heros that call a touch more often when we bet more not less.
If we had gone smaller/kept him a tad wider than we could bet small/get called more often and still be able to bet-f.

@GG, b/f is not an option. Villain can still shove AK or K8 and think he's good (and probably should).

@Amanaplan, if we wanted to shove river we needed to go $75 on the turn.

Amanaplan - Oh I wasn't thinking b/f. Given stack sizes we'd have to b/c. But I was wondering how elastic V's calling range is on this river.

It's a very big deal that the Q is not a diamond and lots of his flop peels added equity ott and otr as well. We made him narrow by sizing up, gotta get the max otr on one of the few cards that help us. Couldn't care less about getting stacked by a set on this river.

I typically hate leaving ourselves with ~PSB on the river for these reasons, but against straightforward ABC opponents I think we can probably get away with highly exploitive bet/folds even with these lol stacks. Having said that, I don't think we should have gotten ourselves into this spot to begin with, especially considering we have about the nut low in our range for betting the turn (no?) and so that doesn't bode well if this guy is still calling us down.

Nothing in the reads suggest he's going to passively call AK all the way to the river before hurp durp raising for the rest of stacks on this board. Nothing in the reads suggests he is playing a hand like lol K8s.

Gniceriversuckout,imoG

I wouldn't call a ~1/2 PSB on the turn "sizing up," especially when a lot of his calling range has 25-30% equity.

Even droolers can get away from QJ when our bet size goes: $33 -> $60 -> $194

@swol - I just meant you could consider a bet fold had we arrived at the river, deeper/wider.
@buz - when playing well, something you seem to do, you cannot be a slave to pot geometry to the point where prior street sizings determine sizing on the river.

Calling the flop with AK IP is perfectly reasonable. He shouldn't have K8, but everyone makes occasionally loose calls (especially on the BTN), and once he gets to the flop it is perfectly fine peeling one with middle pair + overcard + BDFD.

I have no problem overbetting the river when the situation calls for it, I just don't think this is one of those situations personally.

It also leaves us the incredibly unlikely occurrence of villain shoving a busted draw over our bet. However, I still believe he has moderate SDV that won't call a shove so I am betting the max I think he will.

My point regarding these hands is that he's never raising them on the river (right?), so we can safely bet/fold even though we have just a ~PSB left.

Guseraccountstolen,ldoG

He should raise them. Combinatorically, hero's most likely hand to b/b/b at the chosen sizing is AQ.

I disagree with "should" (the question he should mostly be asking himself is what worse hands call a raise for stacks and there are none with the possible exception of AA), but that's beside the point. Is *this* guy (or 99% of ABC opponents) going to raise them on the river?

Gno,imoG

Are you saying villain shouldn't shove $100 more over a $90 river bet because he will only get called by better?

If that's the case, villain can shove all of his busted draws and busted pairs + draws for a ridiculously cheap bluff because he's only being called by 6 combos of 88/33 (actually 4 combos of 88/33 when villain has a hand like 98 which blocks 2/3 of the 88 set combos) which are discounted even further by hero's small turn sizing.

Against me, yes, you're absolutely right, he could get away with that.

But one, he's not playing me. And two, he probably wouldn't even know that about me cuz he's never expecting me (or anyone else) to fold anything I'm betting on the river given what we have left.

ETA#1: Basically, nothing in the reads suggest this guy is unlike 99% of the poker population and very thinly (far too thinly, imo) value raising just TP on the river or thinking he's run into the 1% of the poker population that could bet/fold to a bluff here (not to mention how few bluffing hands he can even show up with here).

ETA#2: IMO, you're getting too caught up in combos while ignoring how differently he actually plays those combos. If he raises the river, he has set; it's just that simple, combos be damned.

Gpeople'srangingarewack,asarewhatwethinkopponentsa redoingontheriver,imoG

It's fine obv, and I'm probably needlessly splitting hairs. I just want to be able to make money w JT high as well which means I might have to bet big with KQ as well more often (I also get to this river much deeper on avg)

I hope you are only talking about the lone JT combo for 3 barreling. Additionally, us holding that combo removes quite a few speculative holdings for villain and pushes him further up his range to AQ/KQ much more frequently which are far more likely to hero the river jam compared to when he has QJ/QT.

bet/ fold for $75 on river is right imo.

Prob use all 3 of J9dd+, T9dd as 3x bluffs, but it does hurt folding ranges a bit but knocks out some calls too. I'm just not sure what other air I have otr here and I suppose I don't really need to be too concerned with it, maybe just ck-c a few more hands and ck-give up on these.

^ whoops yah I misinterpreted you to mean only JT.

On second thought, maybe we are better off sizing up those combos OTT to near PSB's to maximize our FE and then we can safely x/f unimproved OTR knowing we have virtually no shot at winning. We also price in our 12-15 outers to call a jam in the event we run into a set that jams over us.

ie: we bet 105/115 OTT, villain jams for 255, we call off 150/475 with 26-30% equity.

Thanks for the responses.

Results:

nh. nice river sizing.

[QUOTE=NebDanger;52664003]

Villain mucks but claims to of had AQ



A person who constructs his sentences this way is also capable of constructing his range adventurous.

agree with Amana on sizing being too big on previous streets, overall a b/b/b line is just fine here.

Hand was well played. I also bet smaller on flop targeting 89,87,108, and other trash the blinds may call with.

Having button call isn't ideal but with only 100 BB effective I am not gonna worry about getting stack and looking to get value.

So betting turn for fat value.

River is the nutz. Not folding under any circumstances. Depending on meta game, I am likely jamming, getting called by worse alot!!!!!!

At low levels we are going to get hero called by AQ, and QJ. Nobody likes to fold Top Pair at a high rate. And if they are, I am looking to steal alot of pots with big bets on rivers. Also villains generally lose value vs aggro players, worried they are going to have to call huge bets or get check raised.

So even though our jam may seem to be awful thin. It works enough to justify a shove. If for nothing else, it drives people crazy to constantly have to fold Top Pair

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I would continue on the turn make another 2/3's ish pot sized bet. $75 sounds about right. We are building the pot with the best hand. One thing we are not doing is denying our villain a chance to realize his true equity. I think Villain will show up with a lot of QJ, Q10, type hands along with 89 even J10, 910, along with JJ-22. The call pre from the Button and Blinds make all their ranges very wide! Our hand doesn't have a lot of robust equity so we are not going to be improving much by the river. Great spot to value bet. I would be curious to see what happens on the turn/river. Punish now!

Edit: I love the bet sizing on the flop, but make sure you mix some capped ranged hands so that you polarize your range once in a while. I'm doing this a lot with my linear range too, ( top hands in top of range) so just mix it up a bit.

I know this will sound results oriented (and maybe it is), and at least 3 others have liked the hand since you posted the result so what do I know, but the fact of the matter is you bet 3 times into him with the worse hand, which given the preflop/flop play and read on our opponent shouldn't be that much of a surprise.

Gagain,niceobviousriversuckout,imo,buthey,QJtho,am irite?G