1/3, Monterey, California

Hero has $550 and is the short stack on this 9-handed table


Villain is a 80-year-old white male. He has not raised a hand in 5 orbits, but has limp-called perhaps 4 times. This time he raises to $15. There is no history between Hero and Villain
Hero (SB) 3-bets to $60 with KsKc
Villain 4-bets to $160

Hero had AA the previous hand, and this is a manual shuffle.


What is the approximate minimum frequency that Villain has aces to make Hero folding accurate?

The weekly do i fold KK pre thread is here.

Honestly vs this dude i would happily fold, he has aces like 95% of the time, if he shows you otherwise or starts 3/4betting frequently take a mental note and readjust.

fold

Wait what position is V, if he is button i would be tempted to ship.

This questions irrelevant because it's a separate trial, it doesn't matter.

What does matter is his range. I'm not folding just because he's an 80 yr old who raised for the first time in a half hour though (there's a lot of older players with money who like to splash it around. I don't think 5 orbits is enough to classify someone as a nit/OMC). Has he seen you 3bet before? Has he seen you raise and shown down any hands? If he's seen you 3bet light (to him AQ would be considered light), I would snap jam. If he's never seen you 3bet or even 2bet raise slightly wide I can find a fold. Maybe he's doing this with queens to see where he's at.

We do need to know the position of villain? It's potentially quite a big difference from EP than say button

Assuming it's EP, given:

i) so much of 1/2 1/3 crowd only 4-bets with KK+
ii) demorgraphic
iii) his previous actions which albeit a small sample size in no way shape or form suggest he's loose or agressive

We can just about find a fold at those percentages, but you can obviously work out what the Breakeven percentage is.

Bayesian inference is important here.

To answer your specific question, I think we can range it at,

80% KK+
20% JJ+, AKo+

I think it may be closer to 90/10, regardless, without doing the math, it feels like a fold.

Wtf is omc?

Sounds like a fold brother.

Old Man Coffee. Typically an extremely tight player who is not known to play tricky.

Legit geriatric + hasn't raised once in 40+ opportunities + is now raising & 4 betting...yeah **** this I'm out. I've folded KK preflop 2x I think but this would be the third.

Since you're new to poker you should read this sticky for other abbreviations and meanings.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...onyms-1652830/

Need a “should I fold KK preflop containment thread” stickied and the body just says “no” and its locked. (Not saying the answer is always no but also who cares)

In all fairness putting in 180bb vs most LLSNL players without aces is not ideal. I say that because most players aren’t stacking off that deep with AK or QQ.

At 100bb this is a fist pump gii.

Depends a lot on the room, IMO, population tendencies for buyins and action. At two rooms near me a lot of people will buyin for 200bb (max at one room) and way too many people will buyin for 250bb (max at the other), then with 5x opens and a big 3bet a lot of people love AK.

If anything I would be more scared of the 4bet that isn't a shove, because that would lean way more to AA than AK/QQ.


Also "has limp/called 4 times" doesn't mean that much if it was with 44/A6s/etc. ... but it means almost everything if one of those times was with JJ.


Also, also, the most degen. psycho I've seen this year was 70+ (would rando 3bet super wide, and bluff huge on rivers with air) ... but he was playing a lot of hands too.


In general 5 orbits isn't enough, and no good reads ... I'm not folding KK (but not shoving). But if you do, w/e it's probably not a huge swing either way over a four hundred hours or so.

Have you been 3-betting frequently? You mentioned last hand you had AA. Did you 3-bet? Did you show down?

If you are 3-betting frequently and did not show down premiums then OMC can pay attention and they are also vulnerable to being sick of your **** and this could be QQ-JJ/AK.
Otherwise just fold man.

Marina Club? The 1/3 game there was the first place I ever played live NLHE.

General rule of thumb for folding KK pre is never for 150BBs or less, maybe if over. Here we are over and have several red flags: old guy, mostly passive, 4-bet that wasn't a shove. I'm good with a fold.