Quote:
Originally Posted by mjafish1
Reading some of your responses, and given what villian turned over, I think my line was actually ok.
villian had:
Generally I would raise flop here but that just screams I have KK+ and lets villian do what he will.
I disagree. Given what he turned over you really should have raised big on the flop. He was 32% to win the hand on the flop so any money you get in is +EV for you as long as you avoid the following:
Scare card on the turn slows him down
Scare card on the turn causes you to incorrectly fold
You pay him off when he makes his hand
Overall here are your most +EV outcomes on the flop:
- Get it all in on the flop +$144
- Have him fold on the flop +$105
As played you are probably cutting your +EV down to $50 or so.
Scare cards:
A (4)
K (2)
Q (4)
Cards that beat you:
J (2)
T (3)
8 (4)
Total: 19 bad turn cards, only 26 safe cards. You got lucky that one of the 26 safe cards showed up (58% chance)
River: 19 bad turn cards, 25 safe cards. You got lucky that one of the 25 safe cards showed up (57% chance)
Total chance of two safe cards: 33% (another heart on the river may have slowed him down as well)