I think you're going into an auto-pilot mode here. He's a huge whale when the bet sizes are small, not when I'm shoving $200 which puts almost his entire stack at risk on a draw. If I bet $75-$90, I assure you he's not folding JTo or for that matter, any hand that he called on the flop. But even a brainless guy would fold to a $200 shove there unless he has 8x or Hero has a bad image, which he clearly doesn't.

If we bet $75, we're giving Villain the odds he needs to chase his OESD (as we'll be offering him 6:1 implied odds). Or are we planning on folding our overpair when he bets $125 into $400 on the river when he makes it?

And if he's got a 9, it's unlikely he folds now for just a 80% PSB right now. But he might consider it when an overcard appears on the river (about half deck).

Gpeopleareoverthinkingpostflop,imoG

Disrespectfully think GG is under thinking it. Draws aren't all he has. If a shove folds everything but 8x then we accomplish nothing. If a smaller bet gets calls from worse where a shove does not then its a win even if your giving a pretty small part of that range odds to draw.

I think we are disagreeing with what range an opponent described as a "huge whale" will call an 80% PSB with (which is not an outlandish overbet by any stretch of the imagination). Your idea of his calling range is much much tighter than my idea of his calling range.

GimoG

So just to make sure I understand this a "whale" is going to fold all his over pairs to less than a psb shove? I mean really this read is 100%? Based on what? If this is the case you should be bluffing this guy once in a while and showing. I just don't see how someone that will call with a gut shot for 100 won't call a 200 bet with an over Pair of 9x.

If this magical read is solid shoving is bad and Obv we should bet less. I just find it very hard to believe. Your basically saying uour only double barrel range vs this villan is AA or KK. If so that is very exploitable.

I disreapectfully point you to the part where I said that was the determining factor and OP said the read was 100%. In the next post, I will involve your mother.

Lolz!

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think you should change the OP. Get rid of the HUGE WHALE description and just say station. I think it might be whats causing all the range beef. Someone mentioned that V would/wouldnt be folding an 8 otf. If villain is folding QQ ott to a shove, i think it makes sense that they would be folding an 8 otf. I think calling villain a huge whale and then saying how they are aware of your tightness and that is effecting their calling range so much so that they would fold QQ here if we shove is a little misleading. Based on that I think we can rule 8x out. I dont think we should be checking. Just bet whatever villain will call with a 9. On the river if a bad card comes check and if villain shoves into us we can probably fold and save money since this villain is never shoving worse. Shove safe rivers

I still dont get that if villain is folding QQ to a 200 shove but calling with a 9 if we bet 75-100 makes sense if they are "aware of our tightness". If that really is true maybe we just have to take a check turn line here if villain is never calling with worse. I dont really know because villain description combined with OP's post OP reads is making it difficult.

This is why you should shove the turn vs. this guy.

This doesn't make any sense.

First you said he's a huge whale and he chases draws. Now you're saying he plays perfectly vs. your image/range? I think you're way over thinking things. You cannot possibly have a read that he's a huge whale who doesn't fold enough, and, at the same time, believe there's no value on the flop because he only folds all worse and only calls better. That's just nonsense.

Finally, with these stacks, this is probably a shove in most situations.

It's a slam dunk shove against a calling station.

No way is he folding an overpair!

He will. That is my read.

With just a mere 0.80 PSB remaining on the turn, betting any of that to fold the river on a "bad card" is just a horrible plan, imo.

Gwe're100%committedontheflop,foldingshouldneverent erourmindpostflopG

Your read is wack, imo. Even good players should have an incredibly difficult time folding an overpair in this SPR pot.

G"hugewhale",Idonotthinkthatwordmeanswhatyouthinki tmeansG

of course we can. Based on OP's reads if we bet 75 ott, villain calls, and then shoves into us on a bad river for 125 of course we can fold because we are never good there. How is that a horrible plan? When villain shoves into us he is bluffing 0 percent of the time.

Why is V's range limited to 9x, 8x, and JT? What about overpairs and other straight draws like QT, QJ, T7, 67, maybe even 57 and 65? Based on your description of villain, he probably calls with almost any draw and would have minraised with a set or two pair. Even for a loose-passive player, calling the flop with an 8x hand is pretty unlikely. The only 8x combo that should still be in the hand after the flop is 98 and villain probably raises with that. I think it's reasonable to put V's most likely range as draws, overpairs, and 9x.

The 8 is basically a blank, imo. If villain is dumb enough to call your flop bet with 8x, then I'm calling a chip runner and eagerly continue playing with V. You're well past committed to this pot. You're never folding.

You should bet all-in on the turn. It's not to protect your hand. It's because you need to get your money in against draws before the river. Villain will have hit or missed his draw by the river and will act accordingly. There's no room to check the river to induce a bluff because the pot is way too big. Get it now while he's still willing to chase. I'm not convinced villain would fold overpairs either.

+1. This really captures the fallacy of labeling villain a 'fish for draws postflop' whale, then claiming he'll fold some draws, overpairs, and 9x for a 3/4 pot turn bet. Either your original read on villain is wrong, or you need to trust it and shove knowing you get value from all draws.

We'd have to be good on the river a mere 19% of the time. He doesn't have QQ-TT / 9x enough, especially when weakly checked to? Or a busted draw that he decides to turn into a bluff once in a blue moon?

In general, putting in a whopping 55% of our stack with an overpair (especially when we are committed on the flop unless there is some unreal action / incredibly bad board runout) and then folding is just flat our horrible.

GbutIguesswe'llhavetoagreetodisagreehereG

I think it's a mistake to assume you would know villain this well. Reads can easily be off and villains can surprise us. I think we should include at least some overpairs in his range.

I didnt notice how much was in the pot when i posted the second time. You are definitely right here.