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1/3 killer draw 1/3 killer draw

12-10-2013 , 04:39 PM
Ugh my head is spinning. I reckon I cbet here cuz I pretty much always cbet if I can get away with it. Sometimes you take it down. Sometimes you hook up. Whatever. Money is money.

A cbet therefore (coming from me anyway) could mean pair, draw, or nothing. Likewise a turn check could mean the same thing.

In contrast, a flop check and a bet when the flush card falls really only means one thing. Sure you could slow play and hope somebody catches up. But then you lost value otf. This adds up after a while.

I'm not smart enough to pull off fancy plays. I just stick with the flight plan. Usually works out ok.
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12-10-2013 , 08:08 PM
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I reckon I cbet here cuz I pretty much always cbet if I can get away with it. Sometimes you take it down. Sometimes you hook up. Whatever. Money is money.
This is normally my thinking too. It's an easy hand to play. Bet flop, watch both fold, win 33 bigs. If you meet resistance, you can always check back turn. betting the flop can't be a mistake because the pot is already big and 2 folds is an excellent result. Not to mention, had I not actually had a hand like this, I pretty much never check it back. But I don't think either villain would be able to decipher that.

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m not saying cbetting isnt a bad idea, its probably +ev to bet flop/check turn UI and get to river. i probably bet 40 if i am betting this flop. im not unhappy getting the money in on this flop, but i really have no fold equity if that scenario comes up as no one is checkraise/folding.

you say bb has been folding to you lately, yet hes super bad and all the value comes from him in this spot. v1 plays straight forward and stays the hell out of your way when you put him in bad spots.

i think the optimal line that extracts the most value from both players is by checking the flop. my plan is simple. if bb leads and v1 calls. i am jamming. if bb leads and v1 folds, i can jam or call depending on sizing. if bb checks and v1 bets, i am calling hoping for an overcall, but again depending on sizing might put in a raise. if both villians check, i probably bet, but im sure i also check again sometimes and greedily look for the home run on the river.

*if you actually suspect v1 adjusts and will practice avoidance, i think bb check v1 bet, you raise is an extremely good line for max fold equity.
and yet this isn't bad either. I had basically the same plan. If BB checks the turn and HJ bets, I will raise this. That was my plan.

I kind of think that this is the perfect storm of implied odds. Since the HJ never has a set, the only hand I can't push him off of on the turn is QJ which has to be a small enough % that I can raise the turn if he bets. If the BB leads, there are a number of different things I can do. I can keep my options open, still hit and still win with the worst hand.

Last edited by attentionnoone; 12-10-2013 at 08:15 PM.
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12-16-2013 , 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by MIB211

1. You don't specifically say it, but assume that the whale generally is more likely to call than fold, so you don't have a lot of fold equity to just take down the pot now against two opponents.
2. You're drawing to the nuts, and another 3 gives you the effective nuts, so your implied odds are good if you hit since you'll be happy to shovel money in.3. Fact that the whale is in the pot improves your implied odds as well.
Some of these threads DO have a happy ending. I actually dislike betting here because of V1. The Q and J smacked his pf range pretty hard, and it's a little bit of a disaster if I bet and V2 folds, V1 calls.

I check. Turn 3

V2 bets $80, V1 calls, I tank for a minute, and shove. V2 starts sweating like he wants to fold, should fold, but can't bring himself to do it and calls. V1 rolls his eyes and mucks while showing a Jack. River bricks and I take it down.
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12-16-2013 , 03:23 PM
I still think betting flop is best. What would you have done if it was the 2 on the turn -- or basically any other card that didn't hit you?

Also, you might have gotten them to both come along on the flop and gotten a little more out of V1. Glad the shove worked, but I might have made a decent raise and brought V1 along.
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12-16-2013 , 04:04 PM
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Originally Posted by attentionnoone
not just flush draws but do we want any hand to fold? If we bet the flop, and get two folds, are we happy?
Of course we're happy. We're ecstatic. We just won a $100 pot with a pair of 3s.
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12-16-2013 , 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Javanewt
I still think betting flop is best. What would you have done if it was the 2 on the turn -- or basically any other card that didn't hit you?

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would have flat called expecting to be paid on all rivers that hit and folding all misses, did not expect v1 to fold EVER after he led the turn

had v1 checked and v2 bet, I raise any turn except another Q or J

had they both checked, I bet all turns and expect to take it down close to always
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