V1 is MAWG. winner in the game. Maybe 20/10. TAG tendencies, capable of running a bluff here and there. Good hand reader.

V2 is young guy in leather jacket. VPIP ~ 60% after a couple hours. Mixes pre between limping and raising. LAG tendencies, saw him run two bluffs in two hours at the table. Doesn’t seem too OOL postflop but he’s playing way too many hands pre and doesn’t like to fold preflop after he’s VPIPed.

Both V1/V2 have around $800, and Hero covers.

V2 opens to $13 in HJ, Hero 3bets to $40 with JJ in CO, V1 calls in SB, V2 calls.

Flop: QT3 ($120)
V1 checks, V2 bets $80, Hero calls, V1 folds.
Turn: QT3 [7] ($280)
V2 bets $225, Hero calls.
River: QT3 7 [A] ($730)
V2 checks, Hero ?

Notes: V2 had previously opened to $18 or $25 a few times. The $13 open was his smallest.

I would fold otf. Idk why you're calling the turn, are you trying to hit a flush?

Deep stacked poker is different than shallow 100 bb stacks. You need to be more selective/stronger in big multiway pots.

Thanks. Wanted feedback on flop and turn, as well.

Flop I very nearly folded due to player behind who should have a lot of TT/AQ/KQ. Maybe you’re right.

Turn I called because I think opponent has a lot of offsuit Ax in range, and the $13 preflop bet made me think that KhQ/AhQ/TT are unlikely to impossible.

Donk lead is a bit strange and it confused me, frankly.

FWIW his previous $18 open had been 76s in MP. IDK how to interpret the smaller open.

Cool w/ pre, cool w/ flop, cool w/ turn, would prob check river in the moment but could def get behind a push

This is a 3 way multiway 3bet pot with a dripping wet flop and someone's donking out into 2 other players (which they don't usually do as a bluff, without knowing more about him). Folding good hands is where you make your money in these kinds of spots, not going broke in them.

Without knowing more about villain it's impossible to read the smaller open. It could be a drawing hand or middle/low pair setting a price. It could be a strong hand that wants somebody to call. It could just be a random variation in bet size.

Preflop is fine. I agree with folding the flop. Even if V2 doesn't have you beat yet he can easily have AhKx or AxKh and be drawing to a better flush. I can get behind calling once if villain is not prone to barreling his c-bets. I can't see calling the turn though, the hand is way to expensive at that point.

As played I would check river. Villain has < $500 left so the only meaningful bet is a shove and there are really only a few hands likely to fold that beat you. QX probably folds but his KK+ probably calls. Villain can easily be trapping here thinking you are likely chasing a flush that didn't get there and only by trapping can he get you to put more money in.

Thanks for the feedback. Your comments all make sense. Only point that I don’t understand is the bolded above. My thinking is that I want the Villain to have AKx, AJx, ATx or similar hands with K, since that’s the hand category that I’m doing well enough against. If he doesn’t have those hands I think he doesn’t have any bluffs, and I don’t think I’m doing well enough against his value range to justify a call down.

This river really sucks because I obviously cannot beat any hands in his range now. I guess AhJx will just shrug call on the river if I jam, but IDK.

About preflop: his previous opens had been $18,$18,$18,$25,$18, some over limpers some cold opens ($25 was a cold open). So when he opens to $13 I’m thinking I can discount AK/AQ/KQ/TT+. Don’t know how that should influence my decision. In my estimation it just removes some of his highest equity merges like AhQx/KhQx and some of his highest equity semibluffs like AhKx/AxKh. He still has KJo/KTo/AJo/ATo with a heart, though.

I'm more sympathetic (than the experts itt, all of whom I would defer to) with Chaos' line here because we're ahead of V2's open/overcalling range preflop plenty of times, based on his profile, on this particular flop. The problem is that we don't close the action, we're against two ranges and V1 is skilled. HU I would call, but not 3-way.

AP: The turn brick changes nothing in this regard and we're now HU. So I can see a call here ott and I'm guessing a solver would call too.

But this is obviously the nut-worst river for us. I'm ready to take our meager SDV and check behind. We block the J9 we want him to have. We'd offer him 5-2 if we jam and we're value-owning ourselves way more often than we have fold equity here.

I am fine with pre and OK w/ flop (although I'm OK w/ folding, too), but I fold turn.

As played, I think V's plan is to check/call. He hit his A, has showdown value, and doesn't want to bet into better, but I don't think he's folding. I just check / give up.

In other words, I don't think he's folding better or calling w/ worse. Maybe he has some weird hand like KhQx that he will fold, but that's about it.

Results: I checked back and V tabled 33. He said he checked river because he was concerned I got there with KhJx or AA.

I ran my hand in pokercruncher against a range of 33,QT, flushes (all suited one gappers, suited connectors, A9s-A2s,K9s-K7s), and AhX, Khx Broadway cards. My equity on flop is 33% and equity on blank turn is 27%.

If he doesn’t have any of those Broadway cards then equities drop to 26% flop/15% turn, and so turn is a clear fold (probably flop is a fold too).

In the moment, flop felt like a close decision point with the player behind who can hit this board really hard. River felt like a close decision point as to whether to jam. I dunno if I can get him off a hand like KhQx or AhJx or maybe QT.

This combo is clearly one of my best bluffing candidates, so if I’m not bluffing here I’m basically never bluffing. Which is maybe a good exploit in this spot.

This

+ much bigger pre. We have his range dominated and he doesn’t like to fold pre once he’s put $$ in the pot. He’s probably calling 55-60

Super clear check back for me. We can't get any value from JJ on this board, and he's not folding anything better.

The problem is what happens if a flush does come in. Say 6h on the river and villain moves all in. Your in a difficult situation because you may just have drawn out and villain is bluffing a scary card or villain may have had air and just drew out on you. Your putting yourself in a situation to lose a very big pot calling on the flop because you have no idea if you want your flush to come in or you don't want the flush to come in.
When your really deep you want to avoid these guesswork chasing situations. You either want a good enough read on villain to have some idea which outcome is better for you or be chasing something close enough to the nuts that it doesn't matter.

Yes, if that hypothetical occurs then I’m put in the blender.

But what if 6h comes in and V checks, then I get to value bet or bluff and put V in the blender with his 33,QT, and 54-98, 64-97 flushes.

Do you think the first hypothetical is more likely than the second? Why?

Our equity vs range is better if V has AhKx and AxKh in range. Idk why we’d not want him to have hands that improve our equity.

I had this hand reviewed on Bart Hanson's CLP call-in show today. Here's Bart's opinion on the hand:

Flop: Clear call. I should fold out hands like JJ (no heart) and 99 (with a heart) given there is a player behind.

Turn: Borderline situation. Fold in a vacuum, but call is OK against the action player.

River: Bluffing is suicidal, maybe I fold out KhQx but that's about it. I'm never getting AhX to fold. I have a sliver of showdown value against KhTx and 9h9x. Just take the showdown.

Interestingly, Bart said that he'd prefer to continue with black Kings on the turn over JJ with a heart. I thought the opposite would be true. When I run the hand in PIO, both JhJs and KsKc are indifferent facing the turn bet -- PIO continues with mixed frequency for each of these combos -- like 30-50% calls. When thinking about this hand after the fact, before looking at PIO or getting any advice in this thread, I was thinking I'd just continue turn with any flush, any AQ/KQ, sets (TT/QQ), pairs JJ/KK/AA containing a heart, and AhJx/AhKx (folding out KK/AA (no heart) and AxJh/AxKh). IDK what's sound strategy. If anyone has an opinion, let me know.

I think you played it well and bluffing river seems reasonable good to me but could be hard to get through against this player type. "Suicidal" seems like an exaggeration to describe a river bluff. Ahx definitely x/f a decent amount.

Seems like a super routine flop call, turn fold. As for Bart's take, this isn't an action player from what you describe, it's a player that wants to take flops and navigate straightforward post. Sure I saw results, but any player who plays this way pre and seems to stay in line post is just a face up guy taking the action and sizing that represents his actual hand. In a 3b pot, he has small flushes (mostly) and 2p+... the flop lead is exactly what it is but you have enough depth and position and should-have read on his immediate range that you have an easy call this far down and an easier fold facing 225 on the turn when nothing changes. You cannot bluff riv and that makes the turn call horrendous spew.

Would you fold black Kings/black Aces on the turn as well?

Idk why you say he’s not an action player. He was playing 60%-80% of hands and he showed down a couple turn check/raise bluffs in 2 hours at the table — obviously those were different spots, those were SRPs, more multi-way, and the check-raise size was to a smaller dollar amount, like $75. If he can’t have bluffs with this line it’s a super obvious fold on the turn, I agree. You might be right.

Obv I don't know the player, but these play-all-the-hands guys usually are pretty easy to read because you're able to bucket their ranges into literally 3-4 hands 'that probably do this here' and the other 300 hands don't - that's how horrible they usually are that you can literally figure out that only 1% of range does what it does on polarized boards. His line screams value and I started writing my response prior to seeing results if that matters at all.

As for Bart's Black KK, I mean, it's just one of those things where it just doesn't really apply -- Bart has to talk nonstop all the time so some of what pours out of his whiny pie hole is going to be drivel. If forced to compare, KK probably goes right into the muck almost immediately for me - I'm not concerned about being exploited because the guy leading is not capable of exploiting. I get calling, but the spot is brutal facing an lol cc ftsb player behind.

I doubt any of this helps, but I mean you're playing 1/3 against some guy who is always going to lose his money and the 'capable' guy in the hand is cold calling 3bs from small blind - Flop is really a pretty easy fold actauly w both combos, think of all the better ones. AA im not folding yet, there is a significant diff between them.

The problem with that situation is that with 4 hearts on the board you never know if your value betting or bluffing. Villain with Ah or Kh is likely to check, either to trap or for simple pot control.

Simple equity calculations only get you so far because they don't take into account how much money is going into the pot later. Early in a hand you can be ahead of villain's entire range but it can still be -EV to play.]

The one you run into all the time is being in a blind when a LAG opens in LP. Villain can be on a very wide range and small pairs could be ahead of villain's range. However the difficulty of navigating those hands post flop make it -EV to play unless villain is bad enough you can make a lot of money from set mining.

You're going to love the title and thumbnail of this hand when it comes out in a week or 2

Can’t wait. I hope you release the SamClarkePoker hand review too, that was a wild one.

I would think it’s for value. I beat 54hh-98hh and 64hh-97hh and all sets/2-pair, he’s not checking A on river after taking this weird line. I might value own myself occasionally against K , but I think it’s worth a bet.

Yep, EV and equity don’t track perfectly. A good example is calling with a bluff catcher against a polarizing bet on river. Our hand always has positive equity (equal to the opponents bluffing frequency), but EV=0.

I’ve never seen a scenario as dramatic as you describe though. Is it really ever the case that a bluffcatcher early in the hand (say on turn) can have -EV but equity >50%?

This is where you and I disagree quite strongly. I’m very happy to defend all small pps in the BB facing a 3-4x BTN open, against a typical opponent (even one who is equally skilled to me). It’s not for set-mining, it’s the straight value of the pair.

Quad mentioned it was for the difficulty of navigating the hand post flop, OOP, with a small or med pair when there are overcards and broadways on the board. Are you just calling them down post flop then?