Early Saturday morning. New table, but played with villain at the table before this one. We're 6 or 7 handed.
V1 is a YWG. VPIP most of his hands. Doesn't 3! with AK in a hand before between him and me. Slightly tilted and playing way too many hands. He's the effective stack at $400.
V2 is a middle-aged Hispanic woman. No reads on her. She has around $400.
Hero is a YAG. Has been active all night and been battling. Has shown the winner 90% of showdowns reached.
OTTH
V1 is in the BB and posts his $3. There's a limp, then V2 limps in as well.
Hero looks at a black ace and the Qh. We raise it to $21.
V1 calls, folds, and V2 calls.
Flop ($63) K32hhh.
V1 checks, V2 checks, and hero checks.
Turn ($63) Kh 3h 2h [4h]. Villain 1 bets for $50. V2 folds and we call.
Maybe over thinking it but we just sigh call here, right? I don't think villain is betting a straight on this board texture. Is there any merit to raising turn or river?
Obviously with the second nuts I feel like this might be a raise on the river or turn, but given that villain fired two 90% psb he's repping the Ah almost always, right? He folds worse flushes and calls with the nut flush.
Can only raise as exploit if we are confident V will continue/call without Ah here. Otherwise, it's just a call (unless we know V only makes this river bet with Ah, then fold).
Calling is the equilibrium play here. Raising or Folding are exploits and need info to make profitable.
I think I lean to a small cbet here. We may force a small pair to fold (and otherwise have good equity against them). Mostly I think we're cool with winning this pot now and not letting someone randomly bink on the turn with this mediocre of a hand. I would more check here with a more showdownable hand (such as Kx) or more invulnerable (such as Ahx).
I'm also calling the turn and evaluating the river.
I would never consider raising the river. Yeah, it's the "second nuts" (it's actually the fourth nuts as there are two possible straight flushes), but raising K flushes on 4 flush boards isn't getting called by worse. Honestly, I probably fold to this sizing. Yesterday I paid off in a similar spot to a much smaller bet (in terms of $$$ and also in terms of pot). I felt bad about it, but getting 3:1 I felt it was a sigh call. Getting closer to 2:1 we just need to be good so much more, and I'm not sure we are. Although I'm not sure Ahx bets this much either, so I guess there is that.
