HERO has AQo (no hearts) in +2 and makes it 12. 3 callers, cutoff and the blinds, VILLAIN in small blind.
VILLAIN profile: He plays at this particular casino a lot, I've played with him a pretty good amount, he seems pretty good and he's been playing for a very long time. Not a professional or anything, but I get the sense he understands the game more than most people at 1/3. That being said he seems to be tilting a bit.
FLOP: Ac 9h 7h
POT: 48
ACTION: SB checks, BB leads for 10, HERO raises to 35, CO folds, SB calls, BB folds.
Not much to say here, didn't want to let the tiny lead off easy with this many draws on the board.
TURN: Ac 9h 7h 9d
POT: 128
ACTION: SB checks, HERO bets 80, SB calls.
Not too worried about this villain cold calling on the flop with just a 9, so the turn should never give him the best hand unless he already had the best hand on the flop. Reduces combos that beat me like 99, 77, A9, and 97, and also gives me the lead against A7, so it's a great card.
RIVER: Ac 9h 7h 9d Jc
POT: 288
ACTION: SB shoves for about 155, HERO does what?
The way I see it...
Reasons to fold: AQ obviously just a bluff-catcher and river bluffs are somewhat rare at 1/3, T8 and AJ get there, I'm completely uncapped and can have all the nutted hands except for T8 in my range, a flush draw would fold the turn at least some percentage of the time when the board pairs and I bet big, I have at least a couple of higher-ranked bluff catching hands I could call with like AJ and AK.
Reasons to call: Villain seems like someone who is at least capable of bluffing and is tilting, T8 should definitely fold the turn unless it's exactly T8hh, the most obvious draw missed, I block A9 and AJ, I unblock flushdraws since I don't have any hearts in my hand, I have at least a couple of lower-ranked bluff catching hands I could fold with like AT and whatever small percentage of ace rag suited I'd be opening from +2 at an 8-handed table.
I feel like with a paired board he’s putting you to the test. Your kicker plays, and perhaps he doesn’t give you credit for having AQ. Perhaps he has AX And wants to get you to fold a chop in his mind.
Given the action, I would learn towards call. We are high up in our range and flush draws brick. I think it’s hard to continue with 9x given the flop action.
His flat flop and turn is consistent with a draw. I feel like a lot of more experienced players get to this river with a fd and figure "well, there's no way I'm winning, and this runout is scary for one pair. Might as well try"
I'm having trouble finding the Ax this V has as described. From the sb there's a lot of money in the pot for him to 3b squeeze his suited Aces.
I think he has more bluffs than value here. We get almost 3-1 to call and I'm not folding against described V. His turn call says that he knows we have at least Ax.
I agree with "the Dude" above that his T8s non-hearts folds turn.
You’re getting a bit less than 3:1 on a call and the flush draw missed. Unless I’ve got a read otherwise this is a pretty easy call. Im not happy about calling here but I think he’s bluffing a missed flush often enough as compared to T8 or AJ to make it profitable in the long run
I'm not a fan of the preflop result (which is totally expected) as it is 4ways, gave all our opponents aweseome 26+:1 IO, and yet setup a small SPR of 5.5 where we will often encounter some difficult handcuffing spots postflop.
Anyhoo, I don't feel myself committed at this SPR this multiway with this hand. So with that in mind, I don't want to work towards commitment, and thus I only flat the small donk and go from there. This goes back to an old concept out of HOC (outdated, whatever, I still think it applies here) where I'm less concerned about the chances of someone having a draw and hitting that draw than I am about building way too big of a pot (which a raise does, imo, although you could argue that it was preflop that almost put us beyond the point of no return).
The flop raise has setup a spot where if we bet the turn we've kinda basically awkwardly committed ourselves for the river thanks to only leaving about a ~1/2 PSB left. But as played we've kinda put ourselves on this route, so I don't mind the turn bet.
I think we're probably resigned to crying call the river. The OESD and AJ all get there, and it is possible he simply had us crushed all along, but the flush draw missed. Is he really shoving a busted flush draw at this remaining stack size when it looks like we're not folding? Maybe?
Overall, and I doubt many will agree, but I think our early street play setup a very awkward commitment spot, one that we typically don't want to get into with just TP2K for ~100bb stacks.
Raise more on flop, or call. Would lean more towards a call with worse A even AJ ... AQ seems too good though.
When you raise here you are more polarized than a normal cbet.
Pretending the tilting guy is folding all 9x on flop seems ... optimistic. Like if you just cbet $35 into $50 do you assume they auto fold everything that isn't an A? But now they will because you bet $35 into $60?
Roughly 0% I'm folding T8 flop or turn, if I'm tilting. If I get here with T8 with one heart it's still 0%.
I check back turn, but you do you. If you are going to bet I think you want a different size, if stacks were deeper then $150 might be good ... as it is I might shove, expecting tilt calls from draws. Smaller also good, like $60.
As played I probably sigh call river with no heart, but I think our hand is face up as A8+/KhQh ... so wtf is he trying to bluff for half pot?
Maybe Ah4h type hand that thinks there's a chance it's a chop and maybe the genius half pot bluff gets through? (except that would be a _much_ better flop raise).
Maybe 86 because it has blockers?
Like villain has to have lost his mind and decided to call down random JT/J8/T6/65 and then bluff randomly on river with air or 2nd pair. Your best chance is that villain called down with bad Ax and decided that he's calling this river but instead of check/calling river he'd just tilt shove the last money in "because that's the same thing".
Hand looks "kind of normal" for all better value hands though, even 77/99 can just call flop thinking BB is at least calling and might 3bet ... then turn gives them "the nuts" so why raise, river doesn't complete flush and you might just check back AT so why not shove.
tl;dr I don't see villain having a balanced bluffing range here, so the question is "is villain tilting so much he's calling wide and bluffing everything, and/or shoving all Ax". If he's tilting but still folding ok preflop, flop and turn... he doesn't have nearly enough bluffs with just his missed FDs IMO.
Last edited by illiterat; 01-30-2023 at 04:03 PM.
Reason: Turn bets and tl;dr
Thanks everyone. Seems to be consensus that it's a call, so let's get to spoilers.
Spoiler:
I called and he had 97 suited for flopped bottom 2 that filled up on the turn. I figured calling was correct but wanted to see if anyone thought that it was a spot for an exploitative fold at 1/3.
I think calling river is the play but seems close. I would check back turn just for pot control and to pick off a smaller river bet. Fwiw I think we’re ahead a lot on the turn and need a lot of protection so a bet seems fine.
Thanks everyone. Seems to be consensus that it's a call, so let's get to spoilers.
Spoiler:
I called and he had 97 suited for flopped bottom 2 that filled up on the turn. I figured calling was correct but wanted to see if anyone thought that it was a spot for an exploitative fold at 1/3.
Originally I was on the call camp but the more I think about it unless you know villain is tilting, folding is probably best. From his perspective you have an ace and it's pretty crazy for him to think he can fold you off an ace with a bluff so if he's not trying to bluff you off an ace then he really only has value here and as you said, your hand is a bluff catcher.
