Villain ($170): Mid aged fairly tight/passive rec player. No history. No reads. I've never seen him open a pot but the again he's only been at the table for about 1hr.
Hero ($600): Late 20's. Have folded every single hand the last 1hr or so and I think my image has to be pretty tight at this point.

Pre
1 fold.
Villain UTG+1 opens to $15
7 folds
Hero wakes up in bb with KsKh.
Hero calls.

I think my 3 bet here given that I have not played a hand in such a long time would get a ton of credit, so I decide to call (not my standard obv) with plans to x/r most flops.

Flop ($31) Qs8s5d

Hero checks
Villain bets $15
Hero raises to $50
Villain insta-snap-snap shoves for $155
Hero?

I have to give villain credit for nothing less than AQ here and that's IF he'd even raise AQ pre. I really don't think this can almost ever be a draw esp b/c he can't have AsKs since I have the Ks. Any pp's JJ -99 don't do this. Anyone folding here?

We're getting $236:$105 so we need 30.791% equity

Board: Qs 8s 5d

Hand 0: 30.019% { KhKs }
Hand 1: 69.981% { QQ+, AsKs, AQs }

Maybe he finally got dealt JJ and is going nuts, I've seen people do that on K/Q high boards. Maybe he has more AQ in his range than you think. I'm not folding in a spot this close unless I know they're a nit

That said I think we should 3bet pf b/c we're oop and people don't really care how long we've been folding. This guy finally raised pf which means he really likes his hand so he's not folding after waiting so long to finally get good cards. I say raise an amount that sets up a bet otf that is essentially ai. Raise to $55 then bet $80 otf

Despite the tight hour, I would have 3bet pre. Villain's stack is a little too big to get ai otf. Even if we make it 50 pre the pot otf is only about $100 and villain has about $120 left. But ai otf would be the plan I'd try to make happen (on non-A flops) and villain has done it for us. You're underepped a little. I call.

There is no AsKs I have Ks. So it's really just sets, AA, & AQ (if nit even raises AQo EP). So that's 12 combos of AQ, 6 AA, 3 QQ, 3 88. I don't even know what other hands we can include here...I really, think JJ/TT if it stacks off would not snap it in like this, I think it would be more of a "o well, you got me you got me" shove

I'd still 3bet pre.

Your reasoning for not wanting to 3bet is solid, but it's 1/3 and after waiting an hour for a hand, this guy isn't going to want to fold whatever he finally picked up.


On the flop, like you said, you have the Ks so he has exactly 0 draws in his range. Given your tight range this is actually a fairly awful flop for you. If he has jacks or tens he's snap folding to your raise. If he has aces you're crushed, if he has QQ you're crushed. Raising the flop is not getting value from anything except AQ. As played you need to flat flop.

After your raise I think it's a crying fold.

I think the key is villain HAS to have AQo in his rng to even think about making this call...

Also yea I agree I shoulda 3b pre. My mistake.

Yeah my bad but pokerstove took that into account

Board: Qs 8s 5d

Hand 0: 30.019% { KhKs }
Hand 1: 69.981% { QQ+, AQs }

Here's what it looks like with all of the AQ's in there

Board: Qs 8s 5d

Hand 0: 50.135% { KhKs }
Hand 1: 49.865% { QQ+, AQs, AQo }

Yea I think this is a flat & ch/decide turns. I need to keep JJ-99 in the pot. I can get value from AQ,JJ-99 on river if turn checks through I guess right?

so, as usual, we've misread villain as a nit.

which just goes to show very few people could have told you you had folded for the past hour.

play your hand and let the level 1 thinkers play there's.

The spoiler was a joke. Read the 2nd spoiler.

Pretty easy 3bet preflop, IMO. Tightish villain has opened in EP and so it's unlikely he's folding to a 3bet and yet we're ahead of everything except AA. Plus he's only playing with 85 BBs. Let's 3bet, hope for a low flop, and then get the monies in on the flop before overcard scare cards come.

As played, I guess I don't hate the check/raise since it allows us to get at least one street of value from cbetting AK/JJ-99 which will probably fold to a donk bet.

Getting shipped on kinda sucks, but I guess I call since he could possibly have AQ/KQ / chopping KK / flush draw / etc.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think for the most part any time we play our hand disguised we should be calling a huge portion of the time. Your not even certain he would raise AQ from UTG. Would he even cbet this flop with JJ or below? Just trying to get an idea for how much of a nit he is. Could be a tough, but good fold if he is tighter than gorilla glue.

yeah, 3 bet pre

countless times Ive seen fish 4 bet shove after a 3 bet for <200 with 1010+ AJ+

also a lot of time theyll flat your 3bet "putting you on AK" and shoving if no A or K comes thinking theyre geniuses

always 3 bet pre with these hands, especially bc when u actually wake up with these monsters together they wont give you credit

Imo, there isn't much value in being deceptive against tight players. They either have a hand or they don't. So just 3bet pre. The value would be if villain was aggro and overvalued his hands if he maintains initiative which isn't the case here.

As played, for under 100bb i'm just making a crying call. AQs is in his range. If he has been card dead for an hour then AJss will look pretty damn good as well.

If we put V's range as AA, KK, QQ, AQ, AJss then I think we have enough equity for a crying call.

Folding isn't terrible but if we fold for the love of god don't fold face up.