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1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? 1/3 is this a good spot to donk out?

07-03-2013 , 04:22 PM
Background
1/3 7 handed live cash. Average stack about 600. Table been going for about an hour.

Hero is mid 20s male. Semi reg at casino. Tight image with other regs, but have been v active since this game started. Stack = 550.

Villain 1. Reg player about 30ish male. Not sure if he is winner, guess about break even. Quite loose opening range. I have seen him vary opening bet size quite a lot, not really got a firm read on this but guess it relates to hand strength and position. Seen him barrel twice with air before. Fairly aggressive post flop. Stack = 700.

Villain 2. Young reg player, early 20 male. Probably a winning player. Seen him at 2/5 and occasionally bigger. Not really played with him before so not many reads. Guess I could assume that young winning reg = aggro? Stack = 500.

Pre Flop
Villain 1 leads for 10 UTG (this is v small pre for the table, I think this rules out the top of his range AA, KK etc). 2 callers. Villain 2 calls in CO. Hero calls in BB with QJss.

Flop (51)
Ad6s5s

Questions
1. Pre, assume everyone is happy to peel here even with an UTG raiser?
2. Flop, can we donk here? I think UTG has hard time calling without an ace so we fold out his pocket pairs. Others likely to fold unless they have ace. If we do lead, how much should it be for?
3. Will post turn and river bit later.
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-03-2013 , 04:44 PM
1. Closing the action after 3 other callers (on whom we have relative position), this call is standard. If it had, say, folded around to you in the BB after UTG raised, I'd rather fold than play OOP HU.
2. I mean, we can, but in a 5-way pot like this I'd rather c/c. The chances someone flopped an a is just too high for you to have much FE imo, and no one with an A is ever folding to your donk but they might check and give you a free turn (or bet, letting you flat when they were planning to raise if someone had bet).
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-03-2013 , 04:49 PM
NS:

agree with how deep we are we can call to hit 2 pair+ hands

Flop, betting can allow us to name price. Agree we don't have much FE. Can set the price at 25-30 and make it seem less like we have a draw. The risk is being raised but people at this level don't raise enough
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-04-2013 , 06:24 PM
Flop (51)
I did donk out and made it quite small - 22 with the intention of repping an ace. Villain 2 calls, all other players fold.

Turn (95)
Ks
Now we have made our hand how do we get max value? I am sure Villain cannot have nuts as it would make sense to raise with FD + TP on flop. Most likely holdings are Ax or a smaller flush draw.
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-04-2013 , 06:42 PM
Without any real reads on how to induce villain to bet here, I think we fire out half pot on the turn and river.

Villain almost certainly has an ace and there isn't much of his range where he'll want to inflate the pot by betting in position. There are a lot of hands however with enough showdown value to call you to the river.
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-04-2013 , 06:43 PM
Bet turn. Keep money moving toward the middle.
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-04-2013 , 06:48 PM
I like your line to the turn.

I bet the turn too, little biggish. I probably make it $100 flat.

V2 never has AX since he's most likely playing the flop fast in this case. He may have AXoff though, and he'll call a big bet here.

If he calls $100 here, you can almost certainly put in another $250 on the turn (if another does not show up), and expect a call with lots.

It's going to be tough to get all $550 in the middle here, but you gots to try to get as much as possible.

LDO, if V2 has the flush, we're going to double through.

NH.
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-05-2013 , 12:14 AM
$75 on turn.

I donk this spot all the time when it is heads up or 3 way. 4way or more I usually just c/c.
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-05-2013 , 12:29 AM
I might considering donking here If i had the As
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-05-2013 , 12:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexAg06
Bet turn. Keep money moving toward the middle.
Lol +1.

I'd bet $75-85 and close to pot on river or I'd just over bet and shove river if I was confident that one of the villains held a smaller flush and would call.
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-05-2013 , 08:24 AM
$65 on turn and shove over a raise. I'd size it closer to $75 against a fish but against a thinking player, betting less than half pot on the flop and then suddenly close to full pot when the obvious draw hits might alert him that the turn improved your hand. If he flats, the pot will be $225 on the river, and I'd bet $130 hoping to get 3 streets from Ax which is probably the majority of his range. You don't really need to worry about betting larger to stack a flush because he'll most likely raise himself with it at some point anyway.
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-05-2013 , 08:46 AM
I think 2/3 - 3/4 pot on both turn and river make sense here hoping to get value from smaller flushes and Ax.

An interesting side question is what would we do if the river was Ko instead of Ks? I have to admit hadn't planned this far ahead on flop. I guess we have picked up some equity with the gut shot but not much with only 1 card to come. Do we c/c and c/f river if it bricks and c/r if we hit flush? I can't see how leading out on turn and betting river is going to get him off Ax if river also bricks. The plus side is that we can avoid getting bluffed off our hand by smaller flush draws.
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-05-2013 , 11:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Habeeb
I think 2/3 - 3/4 pot on both turn and river make sense here hoping to get value from smaller flushes and Ax.

An interesting side question is what would we do if the river was Ko instead of Ks? I have to admit hadn't planned this far ahead on flop. I guess we have picked up some equity with the gut shot but not much with only 1 card to come. Do we c/c and c/f river if it bricks and c/r if we hit flush? I can't see how leading out on turn and betting river is going to get him off Ax if river also bricks. The plus side is that we can avoid getting bluffed off our hand by smaller flush draws.
Smaller flushes are never folding here. So there's no reason to worry about that. The money's going in so long as we just keep betting.

But given the preflop action, and the fact that Hero holds the QJ its very very unlikely that Villain has a made flush here.

Best case scenario here is he has the A, and will call a big bet.

An offsuit K brings a gut shot draw for the river, so we pick up three more outs. x/c might be the best line here since we'd hate to be forced to fold.

If Villain bets big now, we probably should just fold since we don't really have the implied odds to play for a 28% draw.
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07-05-2013 , 12:03 PM
Um... suggesting that Villain can't have AsXs here is not accurate. If he has As2s... why would he raise the flop? Especially if the game is fishy, I would be thinking that I won't have much success bluffing someone off of a better A, and I also don't want to blow people off of their lower flush and straight draws. If i had AsXs in a multi-way pot I would be flatting not raising.
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-05-2013 , 07:50 PM
+1 max extraction
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-05-2013 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThaNEWPr0fess0r
Um... suggesting that Villain can't have AsXs here is not accurate. If he has As2s... why would he raise the flop? Especially if the game is fishy, I would be thinking that I won't have much success bluffing someone off of a better A, and I also don't want to blow people off of their lower flush and straight draws. If i had AsXs in a multi-way pot I would be flatting not raising.
I thought the exact same thing reading through the thread. What are the arguments for raising that holding in this hand?
1/3 is this a good spot to donk out? Quote
07-06-2013 , 09:22 AM
The reason I'm taking AX out of his range is that we are 170bb deep. Put yourself in Villain's shoes. You flop top pair plus the nut flush draw, but the pot is only 16bb. You're going to have to put in a raise somewhere here to get some money in the pot. If you hit your flush on the turn, there's a good chance your fish get scared away.

In this spot, I basically always put in a raise on the flop here.

Given the descriptions of both villains here, I expect they're competent enough to know they need to get a raise in here, if this is their holding.

Now, what other flushes can our villains have?

The A, Q and J are spoken for on the flop. The K drops on the river. So what's left for our villains?

Well, obviously 87, 98, and T9 are there. As is T8. T7 is less likely. 74 and 43 (and worse) can probably be ignored.

Do people play suited T? I guess they play any two suited cards if they're bad enough. But I don't see these two villains doing it.

So really, there are not that many flushes out there.
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