The reason I'm taking A
X
out of his range is that we are 170bb deep. Put yourself in Villain's shoes. You flop top pair plus the nut flush draw, but the pot is only 16bb. You're going to have to put in a raise somewhere here to get some money in the pot. If you hit your flush on the turn, there's a good chance your fish get scared away.
In this spot, I basically always put in a raise on the flop here.
Given the descriptions of both villains here, I expect they're competent enough to know they need to get a raise in here, if this is their holding.
Now, what other flushes can our villains have?
The A
, Q
and J
are spoken for on the flop. The K
drops on the river. So what's left for our villains?
Well, obviously 8
7
, 9
8
, and T
9
are there. As is T
8
. T
7
is less likely. 7
4
and 4
3
(and worse) can probably be ignored.
Do people play suited T? I guess they play any two suited cards if they're bad enough. But I don't see these two villains doing it.
So really, there are not that many flushes out there.