1/3

Table is meh. Two or three guys have been limping in regularly with rags, but other than them most of the table hasn't got too out of line. Initial raiser in this hand has made it $10 preflop quite a bit (small for the table, PF is usually $15-$21). There are usually a few limpers, but raises are usually respected?

The two other decent sized stacks are not involved in this hand, so the biggest stack other than mine is a little over $300.

Hero ($800): Mid 20s WG Reg. Been at the table for around 4 hours at this point. Winning image, probably viewed as competent. Have been opening a lot and have no been limping/calling much PF, so probably seem aggressive? If anyone is paying attention they at least know I'm aware of position and bet sizing,but really only think 3-4 other players would notice (including main V). I feel like I've been playing good (aside from this hand), and know I've been running real good.

V1 (~$200): Old white dude, definitely loose passive. Same guy mentioned above that'd open for $10 quite often. Will take some stabs at pots, but usually wayyyy underbets and folds a lot to pressure.

V2 ($300): Mid 20s guy. Played with him before. Thinking player, but often gets himself into awkward situations. Was stacked a few hands earlier when he got it all in on the flop with an overpair and lost to a flopped set (he 4 bet all in after some awkward bet sizing).

V3 ($300): Mid 30s guy. Good friend of mine. Respects my game, but not afraid to play back. We have a ton of history and have no qualms playing at each other. Very good, thinking, aggressive player.

OTTH:

V1 raises to $10 UTG. UTG+1 calls, V2 calls from MP, CO and button call.

Hero calls from the small blind with A3.

V3 calls from BB and we have 7 to the flop.

Flop ($70): K85

Checks around to V2 who bets $65 (pot=$135).

Folds to me.

Should hero:

Fold? There are still three people left to act after me, and I have nothing but the NFD. Top pair and sets are basically in everyone's ranges, and even if an A comes I'm out-kicked by essentially everything.

Call? I have to call $65 to win $135 with two more streets, and if I miss my flush I'm out of position and if he V2 continues to bet on the turn it puts me in an awkward spot. Plus, with 3 more people to act, I'm in an even worse spot if someone else decides to 3!, and I'm in the worst possible position ont he table.

3!? I definitely have some FE. Could likely get K to fold, most likely get two pair to fold, and am likely only getting called by a set. I like have 8 clean outs against a set (discounting K), and if someone got brave and called with K10-KQ, I have 12 outs. 9 clean outs vs a straight draw, so I'm certainly not drawing dead at this point. Additionally, regardless of my 3! sizing, if I get called, it's probably safe to assume that stacks are getting in by the turn, if not earlier.


Range thought process:

Obviously, ranges can be huge here with such a small entry fee and with the waterfall of callers. I ranged V1 to have any two broadway cards, but when he checked the flop I didn't feel he had a K (he had taken stabs in similar spots with small-ish bets before, though never 7 handed)

Though V2 had a range of 56s-AJs, 22-99. Likely would have 3 bet 1010+, maybe AJs, and almost definitely AQo+. Could have been semi-bluffing himself with straight draw or worse flush draws.

V3 would likely play any two cards, but would likely 3bet PF with 88+, and KQs+.


Fold pre is probably the obvious answer, but now that we're in this spot, what would you do/recommend?

I'd prefer 3 bet pf as you have a weak raiser and all the flats and you'll have the worst position multiway. So don't mind taking it down pf.

As played I raise here and dont' mind getting it in.

You should never even consider folding here. Calling is fine. Raising is fine.

About the best flop (short of the one-in-a-hundred miracle) we could ask for.

If we are not ready to play when we flop a flush draw, we should not have called with A3s.

Go for it.

Squeeze to $75 pre. As played, x/jam the flop but don't expect too much fold equity. Maybe 10% of the time you'll take it down on the flop with a x/r.

You mention UTG is loose and opens regularly, so I think A3s is a prime hand to be 3betting light here in the SB and can get it HU with him.

AP, Biggest problem is SPR is 2-3 at this point, so we don't have many options. V2 could easily be stabbing here, so I'd just ship it.

I'm cool with preflop. We're getting a good price to ~nutmine and mostly just hope we get into a flush over flush situation. With all this dead money and against a loose small open, there's probably some argument for a 3bet too.

I'm cool with the flop check OOP (7ways we likely don't have much FE and we have zero clue who / how many are interested / very interested in this flop.

I fold to the large bet. Better is a thinking player who's bet almost a PSB on the flop against the world. I mean, sure, it's been checked to him in LP, but in general he really shouldn't be getting that out-of-line here against so many opponents. He's offered us fairly poor odds to chase an obvious draw where we'll have difficulty getting paid off (especially OOP), plus someone could be sandbagging in EP.

ETA: FWIW, this is often why I recommend PSB+ on flops like this when I flop the nuts, because people simply don't fold draws on the flop (as can be seen from all the responses).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Please don't fold. Please.

Pre is fine, but a squeeze is fun, too.

I raise/gii now. Nobody has shown interest and V2 most likely has a bare K or a flush draw. I'm more than happy to gii vs. either. He could be taking a stab, and his folding is fine. If he has a K-high flush draw or set, so be it. Don't play A3s.

Nut flush draw w/ an over vs. the way the table has responded to the flop for 100 bb -- this is pretty much a no-brainer to me.

i like a flat here and get it in on the turn. we want as many people to come along as we can. in a game where 7 people are going to the flop i want 4 people in this hand pot committed on the turn when i've got this hand on the flop.

So, you gii on a blank turn? Flatting here is something I wouldn't even consider. I'd rather fold, but I'm definitely raising so that's moot.

You are facing a PSB, but you also have the flop that you played the hand to get. I think this is a clear call. You do have players behind, your call may cause one or two of them to call also. If you miss the turn and face another PSB then fold unless there were other callers on the flop. I doubt you have any fold equity with a shove here since you are facing a PSB.

We are not shoving for fold equity, although if they all fold, that's fine and good; we are shoving to see two cards with our flush draw and over-card.

With 46% against KQs, we are fine to play for stacks here and now, given V2 has 225 behind. Our $290 eff shove making a total pot of $650 means we need 45%, which we have. Add in our fold equity and the fact that a rogue 67s calling us (pot $940) lowers our required equity to 31% while now sitting on 44%. Even if it's 88 snapping us instead of 67s, we still win 27% of the time. Our nightmare scenario is shoving, 88 snapping, and V2 folding. Then we are 26% to win, needing 41%.

Assuming no snaps, our FE depends heavily on how V2 ranges us given our weird CR, but we're in good shape either way. What would a SB be CRing this board with? V2 is almost certainly blocking Kx, so our hand looks very much like what it is - a high equity drawing hand. This is problematic for drawing in the 67s player, as they are blocking other 67s which makes it much more likely for us to be on the superior flush draw, making them less likely to come along. They are in even worse shape against the flush draw than they are against top set.

So most likely, we see a shove folded back to V2 and we're in a neutral to slightly positive situation. We can also show up here with maybe 3-5 combos of K8s/K5s/85s depending on whether or not his K is clubs, which would put some fear into him and raise our FE. Two pair is also the other hand we'd be most likely to CR with on the flop given our position and it being 7 ways.

OP says he "could likely get a K to fold and most likely get 2 pair to fold"? I think its the other way around.

Check raising all in here looks exactly like a FD (to a good player), but it doesnt matter. Its the right play and most players arent good anyway.

I'm pretty sure from the SB I'd check/raise w/ 88 or 55 here, but that's it except for a flush draw.

#Me too

+1

Thanks for the feedback.

I considered 3! pre, but if I get a caller or two, but I wouldn't really like any flop other than flush draw or trips and I'd be playing OOP. It'd be great to take it down PF, and this is a move I'd probably make some of the time.

As played, I did what a majority of you agreed on. C/R all-in. With V2s bet size, stack size, and pot size, it felt like all-in or nothing. c/r to $150 might entice a call?, but the end game would have always been the same and all the chips would be in by the turn regardless.

V2 thought for a little while but eventually folded. Said he was thoroughly confused, and it looked like a set/flush draw all day. Laid down 2p (5-8).

V1 had to think for a little bit which gave me some hope, then reluctantly called.

Board ran 9-5 (no club).

Hero's A high holds and he scoops a $650+ pot.

Villain showed QJcc. He didn't re-buy.

Wow! Well done -- not often you get better to fold and worse to call

Yeah, I was totally surprised too. I told him I had the nut flush draw and had flipped my cards prior to the run out. Definitely thought I was dead in the water when the turn and river came, but he just sort of dejectedly said "Ace is good" and that was that.

don't you love it when a plan comes together!!!!

I tell you one thing...if I call raise with 85 Im not folding on this board for 100BBs...EVER

I would bet out the flop kinda small like 20, itll keep the worse draws in, and put Kx in a kinda tough spot where they probably gotta just call. Also as first to act, betting doesnt reopen the action for anyone, and it puts you in a situation where if you get raised you see the amount of interest the players behind you have.

AP, I guess id just jam, although the old man certainly could have KK. I think a call actually looks stronger than a raise, but there isnt a ton of space to maneuver here. If you were deeper, id c/c flop, crai a blank turn.

3 betting pre is spew.

This is one of the reasons I lean towards a fold on the flop. In a seven way ~minraised pot there is just too good a chance someone has a hand they ain't folding (no FE) / crushing us (our A outs are often no good and if we're up against a set all we're doing is getting our money in as a 3:1 dog), and a MP ~PSB by a thinking player into eleventeen players has to be given some respect.

Here the stars *really* aligned; expecting two pair+ to fold while getting someone else on a draw (who is sucking up some of our outs no less) to call is rarely going to be the result.

I dunno, it's probably close. I mean obviously MP can also have Kx or perhaps a draw (both great spots to shove against), but seven ways it is pretty dicey and we shove a ~7-outer into a good hand a decent amount of the time. Although admittedly even worse case scenarios we're never drawing dead in a big pot.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah no **** right?? AWFUL fold...