Quote:
Originally Posted by Mook
This is where theory diverges from practice when it comes to 1/3.
Solvers are assuming GTO play from your opponents, and optimal opponent play as defined by these engines would be considered preposterously aggressive at just about any live LLSNL game I've ever played in. Much of our EV from these underbets comes from betting air and inducing folds (which live 1/3ers don't do enough), saving money when we bet our air and get raised (which live 1/3ers don't do enough), and getting paid off when we bet our monsters and get raised (c'mon, you know the words, sing along).
Wrong. Almost everyone doesn't defend anywhere near the optimal amount vs 1/3 bets and/or properly.
Somehow 1/3 is good against an optimal player, yet somehow isn't against a bad player who doesn't know how to react/defend properly at all and ends up overfolding/overspazzing (the most common results vs 1/3,
not overfolding)? Doesn't make sense to me. That's like saying go move up in stakes to where they respect your raises.
You can argue that 1/3 isn't the optimal sizing in spots vs certain players or certain dynamics that would have been optimal otherwise in theory, but that statement is pretty off. There is no way live players or most players defend enough vs 1/3 bets. You have to defend so wide that as a human, we'd find it uncomfortable.
Imagine on a monotone board where PFR cbets 1/3 on J32ccc BTN vs BB. You have to start defending hands that don't necessarily have paired up or have a club, and given the extremely small bet you have to defend very wide to avoid being "exploited" (ie MDF). Realistically, hardly anyone does that. Whereas if you bet the "normal" 2/3 BB has a much easier decision. Not saying 1/3 is warranted on most monotone boards fwiw.
Last edited by Minatorr; 07-10-2019 at 09:24 PM.