1/3 Getting Max Value w the Nuts 270bb deep
05-07-2014
, 09:04 PM
05-07-2014
, 10:53 PM
05-07-2014
, 11:03 PM
05-09-2014
, 04:02 AM
Quote:
About 4am at Wynn. Table has a few young European players and action is pretty good.
Villain 1: Mid 20s male European (Italian I think). VPIP/PFR of about 40/10. Seems fishy. In one big pot he won he flatted an old Asian man's preflop raise from BB to $13 with 88. Went three ways. Flop J52ddh. He calls old man's $20 flop bet, so does other young Euro in the hand. Turn 8c. Old man bets $40, he calls, other young Euro raises to $160, old man calls for rest of his stack (he started with $100 I think), he raises to $350, other young Euro calls. River 3x. He bets $200, other young Euro calls with J8. Has roughly $2000.
Villain 2: Mid 50s white American. VPIP/PFR of 40/2. Has been a bit more aggressive post flop. I've seen him c/r big with middle pair and a flush draw in a 5 way limped pot. Other than that pretty quiet. $350.
Hero: Late 20s white American. VPIP/PFR of 20/14. Early on I stacked a player with nuts vs second nuts. In that hand I raised A
2 in late position over two limpers, limpers called. Flop T 8 5. Check, limper donks 1/2 pot, I call, other guy calls. Turn 6
. Check, donker bets $40, I raise to $100, first limper folds, donker raises to $240, I shove for $400, he calls with K 3. I start this hand with $815.
Other dynamics:
-A little before my nuts vs second nuts hand I 3b V1's MP $12 PFR to $42 from BB; V1 called, V2 overcalled. Flop A Q
5. Flop checked through. Turn J, I bet $80, both fold. V1 looked at me with a lot of suspicion throughout the hand.
-I went card dead for a long time, then x/r a K Q 5 9 turn from $25 to $110 against the other young European player. That player mucked Q 5 face up, I didn't show my hand.
-Immediately after that hand, the next two pots I raise from MP V1 is the lone caller. In the first pot I c-bet in position on 9 4 4, he calls, and then I fold when he leads an A turn. In the second pot I check behind on the flop and delay c-bet on the turn to get a fold.
On to the hand:
V2 limps, hero raises to $15 with A J in MP, V1 calls OTB, other young European calls in BB. $57 in pot after drop.
Flop K Q 4. Check, check, hero bets $30, V1 calls, BB folds, V2 calls. $147 in pot.
Turn A. Checks through.
River 2. V2 checks, I bet $70, V1 thinks for five seconds then raises to $170, V2 folds, hero ???
Best hand he can have is Tx. It's possible he can be trying to raise the JT straight for value against two pair/sets in my range, although I think I have to size my 3b to target the lower flushes since those seem to make up the majority of his river raising range. I have four black chips on top of 3 red stacks, so my initial inclination is to wait four seconds, say "Raise" and then toss out the four black chips to make it $470. Is this about the right size? How many like to just shove for $770 total and hope he can't fold a flush after paying to hit it? Is this a spot where I can apply the spirit of Zeebo's theorem to probable flush vs lower flush?
Villain 1: Mid 20s male European (Italian I think). VPIP/PFR of about 40/10. Seems fishy. In one big pot he won he flatted an old Asian man's preflop raise from BB to $13 with 88. Went three ways. Flop J52ddh. He calls old man's $20 flop bet, so does other young Euro in the hand. Turn 8c. Old man bets $40, he calls, other young Euro raises to $160, old man calls for rest of his stack (he started with $100 I think), he raises to $350, other young Euro calls. River 3x. He bets $200, other young Euro calls with J8. Has roughly $2000.
Villain 2: Mid 50s white American. VPIP/PFR of 40/2. Has been a bit more aggressive post flop. I've seen him c/r big with middle pair and a flush draw in a 5 way limped pot. Other than that pretty quiet. $350.
Hero: Late 20s white American. VPIP/PFR of 20/14. Early on I stacked a player with nuts vs second nuts. In that hand I raised A
2 in late position over two limpers, limpers called. Flop T 8 5. Check, limper donks 1/2 pot, I call, other guy calls. Turn 6. Check, donker bets $40, I raise to $100, first limper folds, donker raises to $240, I shove for $400, he calls with K 3. I start this hand with $815.Other dynamics:
-A little before my nuts vs second nuts hand I 3b V1's MP $12 PFR to $42 from BB; V1 called, V2 overcalled. Flop A
Q 5. Flop checked through. Turn J, I bet $80, both fold. V1 looked at me with a lot of suspicion throughout the hand.-I went card dead for a long time, then x/r a K
Q 5 9 turn from $25 to $110 against the other young European player. That player mucked Q 5 face up, I didn't show my hand.-Immediately after that hand, the next two pots I raise from MP V1 is the lone caller. In the first pot I c-bet in position on 9
4 4, he calls, and then I fold when he leads an A turn. In the second pot I check behind on the flop and delay c-bet on the turn to get a fold.On to the hand:
V2 limps, hero raises to $15 with A
J in MP, V1 calls OTB, other young European calls in BB. $57 in pot after drop.Flop K
Q 4. Check, check, hero bets $30, V1 calls, BB folds, V2 calls. $147 in pot.Turn A
. Checks through.River 2
. V2 checks, I bet $70, V1 thinks for five seconds then raises to $170, V2 folds, hero ???Best hand he can have is T
x. It's possible he can be trying to raise the JT straight for value against two pair/sets in my range, although I think I have to size my 3b to target the lower flushes since those seem to make up the majority of his river raising range. I have four black chips on top of 3 red stacks, so my initial inclination is to wait four seconds, say "Raise" and then toss out the four black chips to make it $470. Is this about the right size? How many like to just shove for $770 total and hope he can't fold a flush after paying to hit it? Is this a spot where I can apply the spirit of Zeebo's theorem to probable flush vs lower flush?
Results: I toss out the four black chips, raising to $470. V shrugs his shoulders for two seconds before calling. After I table my hand he shows T
9. Given his reaction, I think I very likely get looked up when shoving. Going from $170 to $770 seems really obvious to me that I have the nuts, but I really can't assume that V looks at it from the same perspective. I still had the hand in which I raised 4.2x and got two pair to fold in mind, but this was a different villain with a better hand and a bit more in terms of dynamics going.