Rivers Chicago, waiting for 2-5 but have rolled my name to bottom of list a few times so been at the table a while.

H - MP - late 30s WG - $420 - playing relatively TAG (but probably seen by some as super tight, and others as super aggressive, because it's an "old school 1-3 table" where people aren't raising much if at all and I'm opening), currently down ~$150 after being up significantly and lost several medium - big pots on the spin. Just had to fold KK on K 2 3 4 5ccc river when bombed into and called 3 ways on river.

V1 - SB - $400 - youngish white guy, seems bad but maybe erratic? Not seen him show down anything too insane other than a) him doubling through me when pot is opened to $15 UTG+1, 3 callers including him, me $95 from BB with AQo, folds back to him, he shoves for $160 I obv call and lose to his QTo, and 2) cold called a 3b from SB w J9o and won a big one with a straight.

V2 - BB - covers - MA hispanic guy, tried to bluff me on my first hand when I had top pair and I didn't fold, told me I was "clearly married to that jack" when he turned over 44 having called a 3b pre and flop bet on J 7 2 before betting small on turn and river.... Too loose pre, won't vbet thin from what I've seen but will bluff?


OTTH:

2 folds, me $12 MP with black 66, V1 and V2 call.

Flop (~$33) - 88Thh, checks around

Turn (~$33) - 6d (absolute bink) - checks to me, me $18, they both call.

River (~$85) 3c, V1 checks, V2 donks $44, I raise to $130, V1 check-3b rips (it's ~$380 total), V2 laughs and snap folds.

Trivial call? Trivial fold? Sigh call?

At a non-raisey table with lots of poor opponents I could get behind an open limp in MP. But otherwise I would mostly just fold preflop (it's just where I personally draw my line in the sand, noting I'm limping in with 77). At typical loose and sticky tables (where we'll mostly just have to hit the best hand postflop) all an open does is allow stacks to be played for postflop (in which case I'd probably open much smaller, as even a minraise kinda accomplishes that).

There is a decent chance our hand is best on this flop against 2 players, and meanwhile it is extremely vulnerable / we're going to hate most runouts / we're cool with ending things now, so I'd probably make a small cbet. Against guys clicking buttons on the flop I guess I don't hate a check back in an attempt to get closer to showdown and not be put in a spot right away.

I probably bet slightly larger on the turn but whatever.

I think we hear earlier from 8x (that may eventually boat up). I don't think anyone who isn't out of their mind overplays a straight / trips like this to this river action. I think flopped/turned monsters (such as TT/88/86) don't risk the later street action checking thru and start doing some donking/raising themselves. Of all the possible hands, this mostly looks like 33 to me. So I think a sigh call?

GcluelessNLnoobG

vs a guy that 4bet jammed with QT I would snap call him here. He could be doing this with an 8 (planning to c/r the river) or even a straight.

Played fine so far, probably size up turn hoping for someone to have an 8.

Against a gambler type this is probably a sigh call.

Calling. Guy that wild is doing this with 78 and better.

Very trivial call. Like very very.

Eh, just because he gambled any2 pre doesn't mean he's going to x/r 3bet shove the river light. I probably still can't find the fold in game because it's possible this guy has bluffs here, and 97/33 are somewhat possible for value. But we bet turn and raised big on the river, no sane person is going to assume we'll fold and we basically have the worst full house.

It's way more likely 97 (or 87 that some have suggested he might have) raises turn, and 33 even from this guy probably finds a fold on the turn ... where T8/86 can easily take this line, assuming it's the nuts on every street.


Like we have to assume he can't hand read at all and assumes we have nothing and can bluff us, or just as bad assumes we have JJ-AA and is value shoving 8x or 33. To be fair I think a lot of 1-3 players will randomly shove 33 on the river without thinking about wtf they are doing or what the relative strength is ... but 87/A8? And also not bet flop or raised turn with it?


tl;dr Call gets better the more V is terrible, which doesn't align with being gambly pre flop. I guess I'm Larry in this thread.

It's not that he might be bluffing, it's that he can easily overvalue his hand and there are many of those not just 33.

I've seen people in similar spots and use this "live play people aren't bluffing" reasoning to make terrible hero folds and find out villain had like A8 or something.

People often miss the fact that low stakes players get fixated on their own hand, can't hand read particularly well, and so will take lines where they severely and unknowingly overplay their hand.

Yeah of course in this instance hero called and lost so it's easy and tempting to try and make up reasons for why we should fold, but that's not a good way to go about things imo.

I don't think he's doing this "light", 8x is the nuts to players like this. If he woke up with a better FH, nh and hopefully he stays at the table.

I may get roasted for this take especially how I advocated slightly for folding a set in my latest post, but I would prob slam dunk call.

1. You hit gin on the turn and you have a very underrepped full house.

2.There are a ton of 8x V could have that could be making this move. If has 86 or 810 he can easily have A8, 89, 87, and maybe j8.

3. The Q10 hand history highlights this guy is super wide which shows that yes he could have 86 and 810 but a ton of other trash that you are way ahead in.

4. You described him as erratic and bad - if he is nuts then even more reason to call him down and if you lose, reload and I'm sure hell have a chance to get it back.

Call because you can beat some value hands (97, A8, K8, 33).

Not only does that have to be true BUT villain also has to decide to slow play turn with A8 when there are a bunch of draws out there that kill A8.

Scenario one:

V just reads hand and sees A8 and
... doesn't bet flop, with lots of draws.
... doesn't bet turn, when some draws hit and lots more available.
... doesn't raise turn bet
... check 3bet shoves river.

Scenario two:

V flops T8 and
... doesn't bet flop, praying someone hits something.
... doesn't bet turn, when some draws hit and lots more available praying someone hit something.
... doesn't raise turn bet, praying someone has something or hits something on the river
... check 3bet shoves river.

This is always a problem, if H calls and V turns over like 99/AT or even A8 ... H wonders if V can spell poker and never even posts the hand.

As I said, I probably call it a lot (probably more because I'd be more tilted by folding and being shown 97 than calling and being shown T8) ... but I doubt calling 250 to win 539 is good here, and at best I would severely downgrade the "snap call" to "sigh call, and hope V is terrible/genius".
But I've played with a lot of people playing super wide ranges pre. flop ... and I think a lot of people in the thread are way overestimating what their 3bet shoving range would be here. If you told me they are calling any 8x or AT on the river to a bet/raise ... sure, maybe ... but I just don't see them taking this line and 3bet shoving A8 anywhere near enough of the time.
A lot of this is how the board ran out, or didn't. If the board was even: Th8h6 3 8 ... with the same action, then I think it's a lot more likely A8/87 assumes it's the nuts. But with T88 6 3 there's so much more incentive for money to go in before the river for all the hands we beat.

As some non-goat level actionable advice I think the river raise is too big, 3x flop raises are more common because we have draws and can deny equity etc. ... on the river it looks so much stronger than 95 or even 115 that we'll get less sigh calls.

Illiterat your scenario 1 scenario 2 simple logic got me liking your fold.

bet bigger ott i think. raise bigger otr too. both vs seem bad and are going to be inelastic vs size assuming u dont like overbet (particualrly the river lead i think if he has a hand he's leading to b/c it doesnt matter if u go 3x or like 4.5x)

as played, rivers actually pretty tough man. this is like one of the few hands on here i really want to fold lol. you only need to win 31% of the time and i have no idea if that actually happens in practice. probably end up calling from a pot odds standpoint but this is like the absolute scariest action i could think of and seems likely he flopped FH / Quads. i think the chances of him bluffing are basically 0 so we're hoping he overplays something. i can see some merit to the 33 argument buts this is worrisome vs a guy who probably has t8o pure.

would end up calling unhappily i guess and i think if he was better you could find a fold here if you really wanted.

Interesting. A test of the old Zeebo's Theorem, which I think is that very few players can fold a full house.

Preflop: I wouldn;t do this at a tough table.

Flop: In position I prefer c-bet.

AP Turn: I'd probably bet a little bigger, These two Vs seem like punter who are never folding FDs and 8x. It's an exploit and perhaps unbalanced, but any heart river or board pair could kill action.

River: I cannot find a fold here getting 2-1. If we are thinking about folding we shouldn't have raised

Thx.

Table isn't tough.

Flop cbet is interesting, I thought this one was super close, but this is a pretty wet board vs two flatters I don't think I'm getting two folds very often, and then we hate half the turn cards (anything 9 or higher, any heart). Some people have said bet though so feel like it's def close.

Turn understood.

River I strongly disagree with "if we are thinking about folding we shouldn't have raised". This was the SB who had checked three times check-3b the river......

Results soon.

Kind of a mix of what others said.

Flop seems a fairly easy bet to me. Apart from sets, this is about as good a flop as we can ask for. No reason to give hands like KQ or Ax a free card. We can actually get called by worse.

Turn: bet bigger. Hopefully, someone has an 8 or a straight. Ten is unlikely to fold. Our line here looks a little suspicious. We checked as the PFR and are betting this card? Not a lot of holdings make sense. If I was V, I would be pretty disinclined to fold to you.

Raising bigger on river. Straights, trips and 33 are not gonna fold very often. These are your value targets, so at least a pot sized raise.

AP, it's a fairly trivial call. IDK, maybe the guy flopped quads, but then this is a weird af line to take. Checks twice, just calls your puny turn bet. Then leads for 1/2 pot? That's a great way to win the absolute minimum. I have no sense of what this guy is up to really, except that he probably likes his hand. It could be a8 or 33. He called a 3 bet with 44. He's an erratic player. Maybe one of the few who could bluff here, maybe not. I'm not doing cartwheels, but I'm never folding.

Vs the villain described I would probably call, but how he plays postflop should factor into it. He cold calls a 3bet from SB with J9o. I don't think I can rule out 97s from this player, 97o, maybe 8x, maybe 33. His line is also consistent with a monster like TT, 88, T8, that has nothing to fear on flop and turn. You can definitely be beat here, but you win enough vs this variety of rec that I think a call is profitable.

OK results:

H starts laughing and says "really?" a lot. Then "I don't see myself folding here, just give me a second".

Think it through and decide yes he has enough overvalued 8s or even a straight and I call, he snap shows A8o like it's the nuts and shouts TRIPS! and I turn over and drag the pot.

He flings his chips and me and shouts slowrolling **** or something as he storms off, leaving $7 on the table as it turns out he actually had me covered by $7 and I had miscounted slightly.

Haha, NH. What a baby. Also, it's not unreasonable at all to tank for a bit about this hand. It's good practice not to just snap call in these spots and take some time to really calculate your odds, count combos, probability weight, etc.

I am Being The Change I Wish To See, by posting hands that put me in the blender, only for Villain to show down some of the most bonkers hands you’ve ever imagined.

I mean, false, lol