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1/3 Flush raised on river 1/3 Flush raised on river

03-29-2022 , 07:35 AM
Stacks $300eff

Villain just sat down, no reads.

Villain limps BTN, SB completes, hero checks T3ss

Flop ($9)
J84sss

SB checks, hero best $10, BTN calls, SB folds

Turn ($29)
7h
Hero bets $20, BTN calls

River ($69)
2d
Hero bets $40, BTN raises to $100, hero?

Standard call here right? Hand is still too strong to ever thinking about folding for this price?
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote
03-29-2022 , 08:08 AM
Any population reads on V? Age, clothing, ethnicity, loud vs. quiet, etc?

It seems like we're almost never good here, but our $60 to call means we only need to be good 22.3% of the time. Given action, I find it hard to think we're good even that often if V doesn't show some signs of splashiness. I can see this being a bare As bluff occasionally, but I think that raises bigger most of the time it gets tried. Maybe 10% chance, unless V is sporting a bunch of gold and wearing a designer track suit.

Assuming not, we need another 12.3% that could be worse for value, and that seems very optimistic, as few Vs are limping button with 9sXs that can't be a connector (since Ts and 8s are already spoken for), and most of the weaker flushes are either not raising river or raise/folding earlier in the hand.
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote
03-29-2022 , 08:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Any population reads on V? Age, clothing, ethnicity, loud vs. quiet, etc?

It seems like we're almost never good here, but our $60 to call means we only need to be good 22.3% of the time. Given action, I find it hard to think we're good even that often if V doesn't show some signs of splashiness. I can see this being a bare As bluff occasionally, but I think that raises bigger most of the time it gets tried. Maybe 10% chance, unless V is sporting a bunch of gold and wearing a designer track suit.

Assuming not, we need another 12.3% that could be worse for value, and that seems very optimistic, as few Vs are limping button with 9sXs that can't be a connector (since Ts and 8s are already spoken for), and most of the weaker flushes are either not raising river or raise/folding earlier in the hand.
Villain is late 30s, Indian and has been quiet and kept to himself so far amongst a pretty loud and talkative table. Dressed in a nice shirt, but not overly flashy.

Yeah at the time I’m thinking that this is just never a good sign, but I kept going back to the price I was getting and could he be value towning himself enough with worse flushes or just worse hands in general.
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote
03-29-2022 , 09:56 AM
Unless he's very nitty or very passive this is surely a pretty easy call.
He open limped his button, he has pretty much all the suited trash combos and would probably have raised many of the better flush combos pre.
I'd consider jamming before I considered folding tbh.
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote
03-29-2022 , 12:00 PM
Given description, it seems like a snap fold, even with the good price.
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote
03-29-2022 , 12:06 PM
Knowing nothing else about villain I'm making this call. I expect it isn't real profitable though. With an unknown villain they can show up with just enough stupid hands like AJ/J8s/low flushes that folding for that price is a mistake.
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote
03-29-2022 , 12:20 PM
I'm fine with the whole hand until the decision point.

Readless, it is a pretty crap spot. Against the majority of the population, this is probably a fold since not enough attempt a river bluff raise with the busted Axs / valuetown theirselves with worse versus this constant bet/bet/bet strength.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote
03-29-2022 , 05:55 PM
I think in a limped pot he has enough baby flushes he may be overplaying that you can't fold for that price. I'd somewhat discount suited aces and kings since that seems like a good candidate for an open on the button, but not all Vs would play that way. Just a good sized raise on his part if he flush over flushed you, not much you can do.
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote
03-29-2022 , 06:08 PM
This is one of those spots that should probably be a fold but I am not good enough to fold in practice.
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote
03-29-2022 , 06:17 PM
We need to use a Baysian approach here; our prior is 80% plus of 1/3 players don't raise river without the nuts or very near. We have no evidence on villian that would alter our estimate from that prior. Fold.
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote
03-29-2022 , 07:37 PM
We also need to remember that we can often discount non-nut flushes because they would get raised for protection before the river by many players.

So overall, evidence says we are very likely beat here.
1/3 Flush raised on river Quote

      
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