1/3 flopped set faces turn raise
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 14
1/3 casino
Hero (MP): MAWG hat, sweats sat down about 30 min ago $340
V2 ($300): middle aged Arabic gentleman
V3 ($800): young Asian glasses
V4 (button): middle aged Mediterranean affable friendly chubby ~$700
History:
V4 had announced he was leaving in one more orbit or so. I had seen him raise 3 or 4 times to $10, as well as limp a few times.
Historical Hand 1:
V4 had opened MP for $10, got 2 callers, Hero on button 3b to $26 with Ac3c, and only V called. Flop all rags, Hero bet $35 and V4 folded.
Historical Hand 2:
V2 had stacked V3 with set Q's vs V2's AK a few hands prior by GII on turn
Hero 6d6h MP
Folds to Hero
Hero calls $3
V2, V3, V4 all call $3
BB call $3
Flop (~ $16)
KcQc6d
BB openfolds
Hero leads $15
folds to V4 who calls $15
Turn (~$45)
Js
Hero bet $40
V4 quickly raises $120
Hero?
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,726
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,264
A qwik bet/raise is supposed to be a sub for real strength
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 21
I vote ship. There's a few 2pair combinations he may have, do we really think he limped KK/QQ?
He could possibly have 9Tc, or ATc, which would make sense for him calling. He could even just floated you with ATo.
Based on his range though, I vote ship. I can't put him on KK/QQ/or JJ, worst case scenario I see is him having the straight, but even then we still have outs, and we're ahead of his 2pair combos, and he may just be semi-bluffing with a drawy hand.
Last edited by Gallows; 01-03-2015 at 02:34 PM.
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 35
Does he play straightforwardly like most 1/2 and 1/3 players?
Tough spot, but I vote to flat-call. If you ship I think he only calls with hands that have you beat....maybe maybe he calls with 2-pair. Insta-raise strongly implies he hit straight and is afraid of a club.
On river, b/f if board pairs or club hits, check if it bricks, and crying call to smallish river bet, fold to river all-in.
I'm assuming he's your typical 1/3 player who won't pull off a big river bluff on a bricked card - but if you have reason to believe he's capable of that than this spot is even tougher. That being said, if he's the type to make big river bluffs he'd probably also bet a draw, which leads us back to the shipping argument.
Sucks to be OOP in this one.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 1,722
Flatting leaves us options for the river.
We are "only" a 2:1 dog roughly if Villain has his straight, calling 80 into 205 is a good price if we have to hit to win.
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 36,150
I'm cool with the open limp.
I'd probably overbet the flop on this massive drawy board (no one folds a draw on the flop, so get max value here). I also bet at least pot on the turn.
KK/QQ/JJ probably would have raised preflop. Even though AT/T9 gutshot is a possibility (which we will draw out on a non-trivial amount of the time), so are lots of two pair broadway hands, and possibly overaggro pair + draw / draws. There's a crap load of scare cards that could slow down action on the river. So I shove now.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 10,857
Is V4 up or down for session? He obv is never folding AT/T9 and you want him to call with his flush draws. But we need to figure out how many 2 pair hands he is calling with. It is doubtful that we see an over-set IMO.
IMO we wont get enough hands we beat to call a shove, so we just need to flat the raise and see what happens on the Turn. The price for him to call the shove is 'ok' but we also want at least 'something' we beat to fold to a shove. That's not happening here.
If behind you are 'only' 25% to win at best. So shoving has pretty bad math IMO unless you can really open up his calling range and I would struggle with that.
Info we see on most V in 'all' of these posts is not really related to the post. PF opening ranges/aggression dont really spill over into a raise OTT.
The shove seems like a fair play, but I just don't like the aggression from a guy whose leaving and at this limit. Sure, you could've bet slightly more OTF or Turn, but you did pretty much bet the pot and it didn't slow him down one bit!!
I think you get more value and lose less by calling here and c/? the River based on his action. GL
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,629
Shoveing seems fine. I would of raised this prewith position but Flatting is fine oop. We can have villan on A10, tons of 2 pair combos and the very rare times he has a bigger set(never). I think it's a shove for vakue straight up.
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,173
when it's my last orbit, i don't continue unless i have a nutted hand, not to mention my range when i raise.
im not shoving, im calling and re-eval river. we tried betting 2 pot size bets and got raised on the second one, i don't think draws will do that so hands that beats us are the only one calling our raise and TP hands will most likely fold.
