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1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove 1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove

02-26-2015 , 06:55 AM
V1, UTG, 270: Rec-fish, station

V2, SB, 220: New player, no reads

Hero, CO, 350: Just sat at table 5-10 mins ago


V1 raises to 8, Hero raises to 26 with TT, V2 calls, V1 calls

Flop (81): T J 4
V2 checks, V1 checks, Hero bets 45, V2 calls, V1 calls

Turn (216): 9
V2 checks, V1 checks, Hero checks

River (216): A
V2 all-in for 150, V1 folds, Hero ?
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 07:25 AM
I fold. I only have $26 invested & don't want to invest $150 to find out what V2 is capable of. He may have nothing more than 2 pair with an ace, but where I play, so many players (young & old) slowplay.

It certainly does smell fishy though. Of course, that's a good reason to go all in with the nut flush......

If he has a flush why go all in? Would he call $26 with 7s6s & now to push a Q high flush off his hand?
Maybe he has AK, figured somebody would have bet b4 the river if they had something and so now with TPTK is going to try & take it down.
Maybe he has AJ.

If I can't get a read off the guy that I really like I'm folding. But I'm tight & prefer to invest a lot when I feel I am a heavy favorite.

And now I'm sold on him having AJ and not worried about the flush since V1 didn't bet & you raised PF to $26 which he took as a pocket pair.

However, the clock would have been called on me long ago (while trying to figue this out), so I would have folded in real time.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 07:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
I only have $26 invested
No
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 07:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6betfold
No
That's what I get for posting when I've played poker from 10pm to 4:30am after only a 2 hr nap b4 playing.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 07:48 AM
bet more on the flop

ott 9s is obviously the worst card in the deck so pretty standard check back. V2 shipping into both of you is pretty strong, especially because v1 could be checking the turn with anything hoping you bet again.

v2's cold calling range is pretty strong and the ace on the river makes it difficult for him to shove with any worse. He's not shipping with QQ or KK now that the river ace came. He has several flushes in his range and maybe even KQ. He's not likely to call the flop with ak unless he has spades, which got there.

Only hand he could reasonably have which you beat is aj which is unlikely. If he looks at all competent I'd fold here.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 09:28 AM
player dependant but I don't see us ahead here enough to justify calling
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 09:31 AM
Snap fold with out reads. Every draw got there, and it's hard for v2 to ship a bluff into 2 players, because most Villains are afraid either V1 or hero have a hand. Bottom of this guys range is a straight here.

I'd bet more on the flop with the ultimate wet board. Most Flush and straight draws galore, which also means if your opponents have a marginal hand like KJ, they may call you down while putting YOU on the draw.

I'd bet 80 on flop and ship/call every turn
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 09:46 AM
I would call pre. You should give a station raising UTG some respect. He folded out most of the opposition and I would call knowing I'm in position against only 2-4 players.

Bet more on the flop. You need to give all draws bad odds and you're ready to play for stacks on the flop. Raise about $70 and prepare to shove most turns.

Literally the worst card in the deck came on the turn. I think you have to check and hope to hit a boat. One of the two players probably had some kind of draw and hit. I sadly fold the set after villain's river shove into two players. This isn't a bluff.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 11:33 AM
Bet $80 on the flop. Shove the turn. It's very hard to fold given how weak your line looks, but I guess I probably do.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
Bet $80 on the flop. Shove the turn. It's very hard to fold given how weak your line looks, but I guess I probably do.
I understand the $80 flop bet. If V2 calls, isn't he drawing to a str8 or flush, unless he has JT? So, since both draws get there with KQ to a str8, aren't we shoving expecting calls from only those who have us beat?

Of course, it does fold out [at least it should] Ks Jx or As Jx etc.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 03:30 PM
Any reason these guys can't have AJ/JT/QJ/KJ/J9/QQ, even AT or KK?

No question that's a horrible turn, but you still have a strong hand that might be winning but is vulnerable and the pot is large. Protect your equity. In addition, checking induces river bluffs that you can't call, which is the same result as them drawing out on you. In addition in addition, you might even fold out a bad straight, esp from V2.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 03:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
Any reason these guys can't have AJ/JT/QJ/KJ/J9/QQ, even AT or KK?

No question that's a horrible turn, but you still have a strong hand that might be winning but is vulnerable and the pot is large. Protect your equity. In addition, checking induces river bluffs that you can't call, which is the same result as them drawing out on you. In addition in addition, you might even fold out a bad straight, esp from V2.
Maybe I play incorrectly. I know 55% of the flops come with 2 to a flush and we only have 2 opponents, reducing the likelihood that 1 of them are on a flush draw, however, if I have JT, KJ I am making draws pay on the flop. However, I would not have called $26 cold with KJs OOP in the SB.

If I have KK, I'm definitely betting at least 70% of the pot. QQ I have to bet also. Even though Hero raised PF. Find out where I'm at right now.

Calling in SB with QQ to see what V1 does seems ok, but if I had KK in SB, I'd re-raise PF. Same thing if I was V1. Especially if I was V1.

Would some of these hands be checking the flop to keep from bloating the pot?

Ok. I'm done editing. I think I've said everything I can think of.

Last edited by ZuneIt; 02-26-2015 at 03:45 PM.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 05:39 PM
I think you need to work on thin value Zune based on your posts ITT. I think we need to size bigger lets bet like 3/4 pot on flop and continue on turn. I expect to get looked up here by two pair, As, QJ etc. Especially with V1s description we can not shut down turn. As played we are near the top of our turn check range and underrepped a fold seems terrible, but we are given no reads so I don't know for sure
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 05:55 PM
Your mistake is your flop bet was too small. I'm betting pot on flop and shoving turn. Next,I wouldn't check turn. I'm not folding so yeah, the turn sucked but we don't know that we are behind and we shouldn't give a free card w 3 cards to a straight and 3 spades on board if we are ahead. If someone has a straight or flush, we still can boat up in river.

As played, I'm calling. Don't expect to win super often but not feeling too bad about it if we lose either. It happens. We beat AJ, 44, AT, a weirdly played AK or AQ w a spade and lose to straights and flushes. We know nothing about this guy. If we lose, no big deal, shrug it off and rebuy.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
I think you need to work on thin value Zune based on your posts ITT.
Help me out here. What do you mean by this? Thanks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
I think we need to size bigger lets bet like 3/4 pot on flop and continue on turn.
Ok. So you don't like bobman0330's $80 flop bet. There actually isn't $81 in the pot. The 10% rake [$5 max] & $1 BB would reduce it to $75.00. So you would bet somewhere around $56.00? Let's say $55

What if V2 flopped the 2 pair you mention [top 2] & calls. He wants to get max value from his hand and hopes no flush/str8 on turn & can c/r your turn c-bet.
V1 is then looking at a pot of $185 giving him 3.36:1 on his money. He'll get a little sumpin sumpin on the Turn if his str8/flush comes. Hero has to draw to the boat, no?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
I expect to get looked up here by two pair, As, QJ etc. Especially with V1s description we can not shut down turn.
I would love getting called by those hands. I never suggested checking the turn.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
As played we are near the top of our turn check range and underrepped a fold seems terrible, but we are given no reads so I don't know for sure
Hero is the CO and can't ck/raise.
Still, if he was in position to ck/raise, what do you mean by "top of our turn c/r range"
Thanks.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 06:08 PM
Flop bet needs to be bigger and plan on getting it in on the Turn.

As played with less than pot-size effective stacks left on the Turn just get it in already.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 06:13 PM
PF: OK

F: (3) handed. Pot is $81. SPR is 2.4 (V2) and 3 (V1). Your 55%P bet is OK. I'd bet more to charge draws, becasue people love calling with draws, so I'd just bet pot. If we bet pot ($80), the pot on the turn will be $161 (if we only get one caller) and V1 will have $164 left and V2 will have $114 left. Then we can easily make a pot size bet again, or maybe a 1/2P to 2/3P bet and get the rest in on the river. Plus by betting pot it makes the hand play easier becasue we're basically committing ourselves to the hand, so it really doesn't matter what falls on the turn.

T: Pot is $216. V2 has $149 left. V1 has $199 left. Well, the 9s is a pretty horrible card for us: flush got there, KQ got there. It's checked to us and we decide to check. When we check it looks like we are just giving up. If we bet for value what hands are we targeting? TPTK, TPGK, JT, T9, and 44

If someone has the flush then they are likely going to bet it on the river, so we'll have to make a decision whether or not they have it. If we're checking here, then we shouldn't be calling a river bet. We can check and give up, although I hate doing that.

Here I would value bet $100, and fold to a shove (yes, I know it's only $50 more to call V2, but I don't see anyone taking this line with hands we beat like two pair or TPTK)

R: As played, I would just fold. He's got a flush.

Last edited by Below Zero; 02-26-2015 at 06:19 PM.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 06:15 PM
I said turn check range not c/r range. Basically when we check turn we are capped but this is the top of our capped range.

V1 is described as a sticky fish. Sure he has draws that hit but he has pairs that he thinks are good too. Or 98 and wants to chase I don't think we have to boat up to win at all.

In regards to thin value you just seem really scared of a bad turn card. It sucks for us and our value bet goes from being good like 90% of the time to being much less, but it's still going to be profitable to continue to betting in these spots
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 06:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Below Zero
PF: OK

F: (3) handed. Pot is $81. SPR is 2.4 (V2) and 3 (V1). Your 55%P bet is OK. I'd bet more to charge draws, becasue people love calling with draws, so I'd just bet pot. If we bet pot ($80), the pot on the turn will be $161 (if we only get one caller) and V1 will have $164 left and V2 will have $114 left. Then we can easily make a pot size bet again, or maybe a 1/2P to 2/3P bet and get the rest in on the river. Plus by betting pot it makes the hand play easier becasue we're basically committing ourselves to the hand, so it really doesn't matter what falls on the turn.

T: Pot is $216. V2 has $149 left. V1 has $199 left. Well, the 9s is a pretty horrible card for us: flush got there, KQ got there. It's checked to us and we decide to check. When we check it looks like we are just giving up. If we bet for value what hands are we targeting? Not much, maybe JT, T9, and 44 but that's about it.

If someone has the flush then they are likely going to bet it on the river, so we'll have to make a decision whether or not they have it. If we're checking here, then we shouldn't be calling a river bet. We can check and give up, although I hate doing that.

Here I would value bet $100, and fold to a shove (yes, I know it's only $50 more to call V2, but I don't see anyone taking this line with hands we beat like two pair or TPTK)

R: As played, I would just fold. He's got a flush.
Please don't bet/fold turn when priced in
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
In regards to thin value you just seem really scared of a bad turn card. It sucks for us and our value bet goes from being good like 90% of the time to being much less, but it's still going to be profitable to continue to betting in these spots
Thanks for the response.
In regards to the above - what I'm afraid of is that I bet say $75 into $100 pot on flop. V1 & 2 calls. $325 in pot.

When the 9s comes on the turn, it's ck'd to me. I bet what? If he has the flush he's looking for a c/r.
If he turned a str8 & flush draw, he could c/r me to represent the flush. This I would love, as I'm not folding.
If I ck the turn [which I would never do], I give him a free card.

When I flop the set, all of my money is going in due to the weak way V1, 2 played their hands.

If I bet $100 on the flop, SB calls with top 2 pair & UTG only gets 3:1 on his str8 or flush draw. But he's still calling with the flush draw, no. At least I made him pay.

If SB only has TPTK, he may/should fold, leaving UTG with poor pot odds to call on a draw. If he has 2 pair, I'm loving it.

I'm shoving on the turn, even if SB called. He may have called flop with TPTK with As.

Of course this all revolves around effective stacks, which I didn't mention, but we get the idea. Or do we?

I'm not saying I'm right...........I'm saying that's how I think.

You're saying that my line of thinking is not taking the "thin value" approach?
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 06:47 PM
I agree with betting more otf and shoving on the turn. As played probably otr. Villains are more likely to call you with worse when you shove the turn then shove the river into you.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 06:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
bet more on the flop

ott 9s is obviously the worst card in the deck so pretty standard check back. V2 shipping into both of you is pretty strong, especially because v1 could be checking the turn with anything hoping you bet again.

v2's cold calling range is pretty strong and the ace on the river makes it difficult for him to shove with any worse. He's not shipping with QQ or KK now that the river ace came. He has several flushes in his range and maybe even KQ. He's not likely to call the flop with ak unless he has spades, which got there.

Only hand he could reasonably have which you beat is aj which is unlikely. If he looks at all competent I'd fold here.
This exactly. I wouldn't look too hard at V to gauge his competence though. OP should tune out everything to the contrary.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
Please don't bet/fold turn when priced in
Nothing wrong with doing that if you know you are beat.

Edit: While I still think there are some (very few, but some) situations when we are priced in we should fold, in this case, we do have 10 outs to boat/quad up on the river. So we have a 20% (4:1) chance on the river. If we bet $100 on the turn and V2 shoves we are getting 9.5:1. If V1 shoves we are getting 5.2:1. So I recant what I said about folding to a shove. Bet $100 and call any shove.

Last edited by Below Zero; 02-26-2015 at 07:40 PM.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Below Zero
Nothing wrong with doing that if you know you are beat.

Edit: While I still think there are some (very few, but some) situations when we are priced in we should fold, in this case, we do have 10 outs to boat/quad up on the river. So we have a 20% (4:1) chance on the river. If we bet $100 on the turn and V2 shoves we are getting 9.5:1. If V1 shoves we are getting 5.2:1. So I recant what I said about folding to a shove. Bet $100 and call any shove.
You should never fold priced in if I have KK and guy goes all in pre-flop for 10 into a 100 dollar pot and shows me AA I'm still calling because it's more plus ev than folding
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote
02-26-2015 , 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cbrewer4
You should never fold priced in if I have KK and guy goes all in pre-flop for 10 into a 100 dollar pot and shows me AA I'm still calling because it's more plus ev than folding
I agree.

I'm simply saying that there are times that you should fold even if you are priced in if you know you are beat. That's all I'm saying.

In this hand, I don't really think that V1 or V2 would check-raise the turn here without a flush. There not doing this with TPTK or two pair. I had forgot that we could still win by boating/quad up, so yes of course we should call given the odds, but if we we're drawing dead, then I would still fold. You may think different, but those are my thoughts, and hell maybe most disagree, but that's fine.
1/3: Flop set, terrible turn, facing river shove Quote

      
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