HERO/MP(350) Young 20s white may have losing image

V/EP(300) MAWG no real reads

2 limpers (including v)
HERO limps KT

HJ 10
BTN call
both limpers call
HERO call

5way
FLOP(54) A6Q

Checks to hero
HERO 30
folds to V who calls closing action

HU
TURN(114) 6

x/x

HU
RIVER(114) 9

V leads 40
HERO 125
V ships

post deleted, suck at phone posting

You didn't flop an OESFD

Limping this hand from mid position is not great, especially with no reads. Bet on flop is OK, but I'd rather check and call from OR -- although that kind of turns our hand face up. However, getting raised on flop is not perfect and we'd have to decide whether to go for it or not. How much did OR have?

As played, river is fine, but I fold to the ship vs player with no read.

The board is paired.

I did not flop OESFD, you are correct, my mistake!

(sigh, double post; thought I was editing)

We don't have an open ended straight flush draw. This is a nut flush draw + broadway gutshot.

I think going broke with the nut flush for 100bbs is okay without reads. Bet/3bet river is never a bluff, but can be an overplayed flush, especially in a limped pot where he may have Q3s. And like, what's he representing here? Aces and queens that he limped? Quad sixes? A6 which didn't check raise the flop we see a lot. I call getting 1:3.6.

Hero's hand looks exactly like a flush, but V doesn't care. If I had a read on V, this would be much easier, but with no read, all-in on the river is almost always the nuts. For 100 bb, a call is probably OK, but it's a crying call for me.

After 2 limpers in MP I'm cool with just trying to get into a pot for cheap with a nice multiway hand. I'm also calling the lol small raise closing the action knowing I'm going 5 ways.

I probably check/evaluate the flop. If someone bets behind us and we get some calls, the pot is going to be huge relative to stacks, and we could simply shove with good FE (although perhaps not great with our losing image) and decent HE. I also don't mind betting out with our good HE but I just don't think we have incredible FE in a 5 way pot to a single bet (and I'd like to flex that here).

I also check back turn. It's unlikely he's going to fold an A and that's probably his most likely hand given that we're sucking up a lot of the draw outs.

On the river we still have well over 2x PSB left, so I don't believe we're committed at all on this paired board. It really comes down to reads. Against reg players, I'm raise/folding pretty easy here (I'd probably make it $100 to go), as no reg player is ever re-raising this paired board without a minimum full house. However, if this guy is a clueless home-game-player-with-buddies, it becomes a lot more difficult as they can obviously overvalue hands. I'd make my decision based on what type of player he is, but I'm definitely defaulting to a fold here (but my game is reg infested, I'm not sure how yours plays).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Really can't be worried about anything other than 66 and 99, and really only 99 makes much sense given action. QQ, AA wildly unlikely, we beat everything else. I'd expect Js8s, JsQs, yadayada.

A6 is very possible (he could have checked turn hoping Hero would bet). At these levels, I wouldn't be surprised to see Q6 or 99, but less likely. The only hand we beat is a Q-high flush draw, and that, too is possible. Being at table is key.

Only two things I dislike are turn check and your river raise sizing.

2barrel the turn. B/f $55-70.

River, V no fold his flush. Make it $140 at least. Then it's b/c.

As played, need a read to call.

I call this off, tho, cuz ima station.

I second lapidator's post. I do think we run into A6 here somewhat often but way too many more hands can pay us off, and if we raise to a proper size, I don't think we can ever fold given V's total range.

Call. 66 is only hand I can see here. He is overvaluing a flush. Reads are important though. Some people just always have it here. Others have Js9s

Could be A6. So so many people raise flop though for fear of getting sucked out on.

Getting ourselves into a situation where we would have to throw away this good draw and not give ourselves a chance at realizing our equity in this big pot sucks, no?

GimoG

A raise on the river at this level (for most regs at least) is fairly tilted towards nuttish hands. A 3bet on the river is only the nuts or better 105% of the time. Heck, even the Q high flush has to be scared of the K high flush even when they don't realize the board is paired.

But if this opponent ain't a reggish type player, well... who knows.

Gmymathmightbeslightlyoff,butyougetthepointG

I don't think we're being raised OTT by stuff we have much equity against.

This is fair enough; I guess the "best" scenario is that he floated the flop OOP with a 6, but that might be stretching it.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think it is rare for a monster combo draw, or even naked FD and SD, to call OTF only to then semi-bluff raise OTT.

With the board pairing, V has fear, just like Hero, so a raise OTT is going to be polarized to made hands.

Against 1P+draw hands we now have just about 30% equity (or less) to draw to the NF but not the nuts. Certainly we can b/c OTT if V min raises getting like 4.5:1 or so (though that's probably bad against most LLSNL villains).

V is actually doing us a huge favor by blowing us off our hand OTT, if it goes down like that.

~~~~~~~

Taking the pot OTT and forcing V to give up his equity is actually a very profitable play most of the time in LLSNL. Its hard to maximize your EV against V's range when you're really just trying to hit the obvious flush.

1. Don't limp call.
2. Don't put your action and then the Villain's action. Stop the thread at V leads 40 and let everyone discuss.
3. On the river there's about two combos of hands QJss and 78ss you might get value from. Maybe Q8ss and Q7ss.
4. It's a huge mistake to raise/fold rivers when there's almost zero second-best hands that might call.

The last time I posted this identical advice in a thread: not to bet-fold unless you can think of lots of second-best hands in the Villain's range that you're confident he would call with --- hero folded and was shown a bluff.

I think your opponents hand range that we get value from with a river raise (QJss, 87ss, Q8ss, Q7ss) is way too tight. Admittedly, we don't have reads on this guy, but his range could easily be any two spades (both in playing the hand this way to the river as well as paying off a reasonable river raise, noting that I would have raised smaller), in which case I think a raise/fold is pretty good.

However, not having a read on this guy is troublesome, as we don't know whether he's capable of overplaying a flush (or bluffing like the example you mention). It *might* be a good idea to err on the side of caution here against an unknown (and just call), although this does seem a little weak to me.

GforumaggrotardG

Limp fold??? Seriously?
QJss, Q8ss, Q7ss, J8ss,J7ss,ss, 87ss, 75ss, 65ss, 54ss, maybe 8 more combos of QXss, JXss. I actually see A9 calling the river here sometimes.

If our hand is strong enough to limp-call it's strong enough to raise.

I really dislike the way you approach this spot.

We have all flushes, boats, and quads in our range. Presumably the Villain is betting cause he thinks he's ahead of the hands that call.

So let's go with your range. When you value-bet A9 in this spot what weaker hands are you expecting to call?

If you're not value-betting this hand don't act like other people are.

Hero is thinking of folding the nut flush why do you think the Villain is value-betting A9?

Ha, I missed this, nice catch.

Closing the action getting implied odds of 40+ with a hand that plays fairly well multiway in what will be a 5way pot, seems like an easy call to me (and I'm cool with the open limp after 2 limpers in MP although I know others will lean towards a raise).

Gno?G

Who knows why this guy is betting.

But one big reason could be because he just made a flush. And we beat all flushes. And flushes will typically pay off a reasonable raise.

I mean, the *only* thing that makes the river complicated (imo) is your point about being possibly blown off the best hand (which is certainly possible). And it is most definitely a consideration that could tip this to just a call.

GcluelessNLnoobG

My favorite Villains are those who play for stacks with 2nd-best hands, they tend to:
1. over-value straights on boards with a flush possible
2. over-value straights and flushes on paired boards
3. over-value trips
4. over-value over-pairs
5. over-value two-pair
6. over-value boats on quad boards (for example yesterday somebody played for stacks with JJ on an AAA flop against my AK. They called my LOL check-raise on the flop.
7. over-value top pair (this week someone shoved a Q66 flop with AQ against my pocket sixes, at least he laughed when I turned my hand over).
8. one last one, the bet when checked to people that others hate. On an A62 flop against my pocket aces I got all-in against KQo, after checking the flop.

My comments are solely directed at the OP not becoming a "Favorite Villain".