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1/3 Facing river jam with AA 1/3 Facing river jam with AA

01-19-2023 , 08:41 AM
About $750 effective.

Wake up with two black A's in the cutoff, open to 15. Two callers SB and BB.

Flop 10s 10h 4d. Checks to me, I bet 25. SB calls, BB raises to 65. I call, SB folds.

Turn Qh. BB bets 100. I call.

River Kh. BB goes all in. Pot is $395, jams for $355.

Hero?

BB has played a decent amount of hands and got bluffed off a few big spots. They did call down light with a K on a 10 J K A x board (there was a flush draw though that did miss). They also have been playing a bunch of junk so lots of 10x is in their range and even random flushes or straights, but they're also capable of a random bluff.
1/3 Facing river jam with AA Quote
01-19-2023 , 09:52 AM
You have a bluff catcher and I don’t think he is bluffing.
1/3 Facing river jam with AA Quote
01-19-2023 , 10:26 AM
I'm folding turn unless he's visibly tilted and trying hard to get unstuck. There are 0 natural bluffs and very few people x/r b s backdoor stuff like 56dd @ 1/3. Speaking of bd stuff the somewhat obvious J9 and the turned heart draw both got there. The K and the Q should concern a bluffing villain here, you could have easily turned/rivered a boat. He has to do this frequently with complete airballs to make you want to call. This could be the case, there are tilted mindsets when people just go for it in random spots, but unless you see signs of this happening it's a fold. I'd say even folding the flop isn't out of the question, no draws and SB could have a T too. A huge part of the EV of the flop call should come from setmining the turn not bluffcatching.
1/3 Facing river jam with AA Quote
01-19-2023 , 11:57 AM
If he's bluffing, more power to him. We lost to a T, straight, and flush, although the last two are less likely given flop action.

As played, I just fold the turn and forget about it. I probably check this flop, though.
1/3 Facing river jam with AA Quote
01-19-2023 , 12:27 PM
I'm fine with preflop.

SPR is massive so we don't want to ever play for stacks, imo. With this in mind, and a super unvulnerable hand on a completely drawless board, I would lean to checking back far more often than betting.

I would consider folding to even a single check/raise (and if I'm not comfortable with that idea then I would check back the flop). But BB's check/raise is massively strong here when SB makes the flop call. So I would lean to a nitty flop fold.

For the most part, it sounds like this is just some loose guy who is attempting to hit his piece of cheese and get paid off. Has he ever made a 4barrel postflop bluff for massive $750 stacks in a pot that is still multiway on the flop? I'm guessing not. So I'd pretty much fold at every opportunity postflop, especially turn/river.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 Facing river jam with AA Quote
01-19-2023 , 05:59 PM
Flop is way ahead way behind. Lots of benefit to checking including inducing turn bluffs / value bets from worse and letting someone turn top pair, as well as not bloating the pot vs better hands. We can bet if one of these blinds are massive stations but there is no need.
1/3 Facing river jam with AA Quote
01-19-2023 , 06:26 PM
This is 1/3, and I don't think the evidence you have is enough to move us away from a Bayesian prior that he's a typical 1/3 player, and typical 1/3 players don't run massive 3 street bluffs anywhere near the frequency we can profitably pick then off.

Fold Turn. Defo Fold River. and I don't think it's particularly close.
1/3 Facing river jam with AA Quote
01-19-2023 , 09:41 PM
i dont see what good betting the flop accomplishes.
1/3 Facing river jam with AA Quote

      
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