So I'm sitting on a full-ring table with average stacks of about $300. The play is somewhat loose-passive, but nothing too crazy.

UTG limps $3
UTG+1 limps $3
UTG+2 folds
MP1 raises to $18
MP2 folds
Hero looks down at 3s 3c in CO

I encounter this situation over and over again in live poker and I feel like it's not even profitable to set mine...

- 80% of the time I'll flat and miss my set and have to fold on the flop
- 10% of the time I'll flat and hit my set
- 10% of the time someone will 3bet and I won't see a flop
- 75% of the time that I hit my set, I WON'T win stacks. I'll either win a small-medium sized pot or I'll lose my stack.

With all of that in mind, should I just give up on set mining in non-limped pots at live poker?

With those assumptions: yes fold.

The idea of set mining is that we believe that we are behind but will win stacks when we hit. If you don't think that's true you can't set mine.

But it also means you can win more often when you don't hit a set. So maybe you should consider alternative lines.

When you play any poket-pair the idea has got to be in your mind not to see the flop and fold if you miss but to see all 5 cards. You bet or raise when you make it or else see more cards without more money. This is part of the key that unlocks the money bags. See all 5 cards as a free roll. You must acquire this skill else half the key is missing.

This sort of thing has no definitive answer. There are situations where it's good and situations where it's bad.

The thing to remember is that you don't need to stack somebody every time for it to be profitable. As long as you are averaging better then 10 times what you paid to get in the hand it will be +EV. In a multiway pot it's rare to stack somebody but with 5-6 people in the hand you are already getting a decent portion of what you need to win, if you can get even one bet out of somebody you are close to break even already.

Overall, it mostly depends on your opponents. 5+ years ago, I would guess that setmining made up a huge percentage of my winnings, because my opponents were mostly idiots who put in far too much money postflop with lol holdings. Today, most (but not all) tables I play at this has changed; my opponents are still super loose preflop like they've always been, but they are not postflop idiots (they know what is going on).

In this case here, if the limpers are loose passive idiots, then I think an argument could be made for flatting. We have position on the field (making getting paid off postflop easier), although we are to the direct left of the preflop raiser (not the best spot). If the limpers are all loose passive idiots, then good chance they'll come along for the preflop raise getting us 3:1 preflop (or 4+:1 if any of the Button/SB/BB come along), so we only have to make up a ~PSB postflop to breakeven, and if they are all idiots there is a decent chance we do that. However, if there is an ok chance someone was limping to reraise, or they are tight and will fold to the preflop raise, or they also have speculative hands and will only continue postflop if they hit well, then it's most likely a fold.

I would typically fold this in my game now.

ETA: Also, what squid said.

GeverythingisopponentdependentG

Incorrect assumptions in the OP, unless this is a different loose passive than I'm used to. 75% of the time you hit your set you win a small to medium pot, or lose... that is clearly not true. Where do you get that number from?

In this exact example at a typical loose passive table, if you call the 18 and either the button or blinds call the limpers will usually call and we will go 4-5 ways to a flop, ideal for set mining. Just bc you haven't been hitting sets lately (this post seems results oriented) I wouldn't drastically change the way I play small pairs.

If V isn't firing every time, then you have an option to win by betting when V checks or by simply having the best hand. If V has a big pp, then you'll make money hitting your set and getting paid when V continues to fire. If V misses, then you'll make money by betting for value with the best hand.

When OOP, I can find a fold for small pairs, as it's tougher to play and get paid. In the CO, I'm calling the 'normal' raise, especially when there are other callers.

wtf am I saying? -- haha..haha

Well, we play our pocket pairs, all of them from 22 all the way up to AA, in such a way as to see all 5 cards (the entire board all the way to the river). All this for only the "call play" on the flop. If villain bets or whatever, we make the "call play", after that we'll see the turn and river cards for the price of that flop play. That flop action is not a shove. I want to make it clear. We don't shove and see all the cards. No, we just make the "call play" OTF. This is the key, ...., you know, ..., and after that ......., Man, the poor sucker is really in for a surprise. Actually in the video you can see villain's face at river. Yeh, that's his face.

Squiddy, if you run that thru the 11t English Converter 2.0 app, it's clear as day.

GstilllostG

wat? Do you even English?

Ah, yes, the famous "call play."

As others have said, it depends.

A few things tend to argue against a call here IMO.

PP is small, meaning if another set does flop we'll almost always be the one who's sad.

We're putting in 6% of our stack. That give us 17x back, which isn't bad but isn't all that fantastic either. To be clear, I'm not advocating some magic number, and there are times when 17x would be plenty, but more is better.

We're going to have worst relative position after the flop -- right after the PFR. If others check the flop, we'll often have to act right after the PFR and before the others. It's not that I'm worried if we do bink, but it makes it harder to trap people for more bets.

We're also fairly likely to have less than ideal absolute position, with people calling behind us.

Similarly, every once in a while, we're going to see someone in LP or the blinds 3b and we're almost certainly going to have to fold. Not very likely, but it's a small downcheck for calling here.

Factors that would tend to make me want to call would be things like...

Opponents that are making bad mistakes that I have good reads on. There are lots of different mistakes that are interesting... betting way too much, folding way too much, or turning their hands faceup, for example. The point is just to have more information on V's playing styles to make better decisions post.

A nitty image and V's that might recognize what that means so I can sometimes move people off hands even multi-way.

A maniac image and V's that are looking to play back so that I'm more likely to get paid off light.

I know because the play is so con hidden that no villain will ever suspect a trap.

Let's say I have position. I'm OTB and you are in MP. We have deep stacks. I have 66 and missed the Set on the flop. Now, I would like to see the turn and river to increase my chances. OK, here is the flop: K, 9, 2 and you have AK. You bet at this flop and I make the "call play" and let's say we have two more villains in the hand. OK? -They call or fold.., I don't care.

At the turn you will let me see the river card for free 100% So from the flop to the river I have a free roll. After I "call" your flop bet I have a free roll to draw for a Set all the way to the river. You'll not realize but the key is the con details of my flop "play". Man, the poor villain is gonna be really in for a surprise of his life when I make my Set OTT or OTR. So, instead like everybody else trying to flop a Set, I'm working to flop, turn or river my Sets. Big, big, huge difference. .., you know....

Uhhhh. Wat?

Daily reminder for everyone to ignore what outdonked says.

Ok, let's even give you that I'll check the turn 100% of the time (honestly, I might if I bet the flop and don't feel committed).

If I bet just 1/2 PSB on the flop, you're getting 3:1 to make the call. You're about a 22:1 to hit on the turn. But since I'm giving you free cards to the river, you "only" need about 11:1. You're about 8 bets short of breaking even, which means you'll need me to pay off a 2x PSB on the river, or a 3/4 PSB and a 1/2 PSB (whether you hit the turn or not). And of course if I bet anything larger than a 1/2 PSB on the flop or decide to bet the turn, breaking even becomes even more difficult.

ETA: In a HU pot against an aggro cbet-but-one-and-done opponent, floating with a pair here ain't horrendous. But in a full ring game facing an MP1 raise and going multiway, floating to the raisers cbet (especially with lots of others to act/react behind us) is setting money on fire, imo.

Ggoodluckwiththat,imoG

All players hope to flop a set when they go for set mining/farming .., or whatever.., haha Right? Well the chance to flop a Set, Full-House or Quads are 11.5% all together the entire pack of monsters. It will be like I'm the only one having a 5 cards flop when I have a pocket pair. If you check the turn and I can see all 5 cards I have 21% chance to build the monster pack. I almost double my percentages just with my flop "call play", and I will for sure call your flop bet, else the "play" doesn't work. I will "call" and I will "play" you for sure. The 21% vs. 11.5% is insurmountable edge over the villains and not many can overcome this hell of a play.

I'm very serious. I'm not kidding. You will not find this in any book. This is not poker the way you think. Don't get me wrong. I'm not criticizing you. I suspect you know what you're talking about and you may even studied some good books. All is good. You will win your fair share. On the other hand I win way above what should be my normal fair share of pots and dollars playing NL Hold'em.

If you can play your good cards strong and well, your bad cards decently and hope that other players are not as adept at riding the circumstance, you're in good shape at the poker table. You're going to win.

So the secret to set mining is calling the flop c bet with the "call play" (which is evidently different from just calling) and spiking that 2 outer on the turn or river when you get one card as opposed to three at once?

Thanks Outdonked. I have the key to money making success now.

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One of the interesting things about poker is that we can all have leaks (even some fairly serious ones) in our game, and yet often times the tables will be consistently good enough that we can still win overall.

Goutdonkedhasafairlymassiveleakhere,imo,andyetit's possiblehecouldstillwinoverallinspiteofitG

I have to ask. Are you trolling?

As to OP. If you think the Vs left to act are 1. not likely to bump this pre with ATC, and 2. more likely to call behind on a call train if you call, then this is an easy call.

Flopping a set with relative position against multiple opponents is like printing money.

I've figured the key to money making poker success. It called the "bet play".

You won't find this in books. Their knowledge are hidden. Say I raise AA OTB 2 calls. Flop T74. Now I make the "bet play". I "bet" money into the pot. They "call" or don't I don't care. They call and I make the "bet play" again 100% on the turn and river. I'm serious.

It is such a good con its hidden money making success key. Remember the "bet play" youngsters. If you don't haha mores the pity, mores the pity.

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What are the other parts of the key to unlocking the money bags?

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I would argue this is still pretty much opponent dependent. If everyone in the hand postflop is a decent player (or more-or-less "good as us"), then it's not printing nearly as much money as you think (although it is still probably profitable).

Gopponentdependent,imoG

Yeah but let's be honest GG it's easier for a LAG or even a TAG to get paid off when they hit a set compared to a nit. If I were in your games I wouldn't pay you off either because your betting ranges are always insanely strong. At least that's the impression I get from your posts, sorry if it isn't accurate.

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