1/3 500 cap. A whale with 1.5k is the reason we are here. Rich businessman type, says he plays 2/5 too, splashy, calls pref 3b up to $160 with 48s 25s type of hands, chases (dominated) draws at any price, calls and bets with any piece of the board. When he raises its's normally strong made hand/(near) nuts
Hero $500 TAG
Whole table limps and we complete SB with A9ss. Whale is OTB
Flop $24 48Ts
MP bets 10, two calls including whale
Nobody seems particularly strong here. We call to see what develops
Turn $64 6ss
MP bets 25, one call, whale makes it 100
Direct odds say we are calling 100 to win a pot of 64+50+100+100 (31.85%)
Lets put whale on 57 and 79 (we block 9 though) then stove says we are 23% vs. whale 77%
On the other hand, if we hit backdoor flush whale is almost never folding here
We have about 400 behind after calling the raise - we could potentially win 800 more, 1114 total pot
Implied odds = 100/1114?
Is that how you guys calculate implied odds?
Or is it better to do EV here?
Like 23% of the time we hit, we win 1114
77% we miss, we lose 113
Therefore EV = 1114*0.23 - 113*0.77 = 256.22 - 87.01 = 169.21
We are looking at a bet of $100 and have about a 1/5 chance of hitting our flush, so we need to win $500 when we hit. The pot has about 200 in it now. Can we make an additional $300 when we hit our flush? That is the question we need to answer.
Let's say that another player calls. Then we would need to win only $200 on the river to make up the difference.
There are multiple players still in the hand, and sometimes more than one will call the $100. In other words, sometimes 0 extra $ goes in the pot, and sometimes $200 extra goes in the pot. Let's just say, for convenient math, that we will get an extra caller like 70% of the time so that we are essentially calling $100 into a $300 pot. So if we can bet $200 into a $400 pot on the river, we break even. If we bet $250 and get one river call, we made $50 by calling the turn. If we bet $250 and get two callers, we made $300 on the turn. If we bet $200 and get raised by a worse flush, we make lots if money. This is getting pretty profitable pretty fast. Not sure if I'm being way too optimistic in some way, but this line of thinking makes me want a call on the turn.
Flop $24 48Ts
MP bets 10, two calls including whale
Nobody seems particularly strong here. We call to see what develops
what ? this is far far worse than calling a 3B pre with 27o. This is horrible.
as played
muck it. yeah, there is a chance that you could stack the whale if it turns a spade, but you are going to get much better chances than 1:6 shots on the turn.
