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1/3 confused on flop and turn 1/3 confused on flop and turn

08-01-2023 , 07:11 PM
This hand really confused me. Almost always I have clarity in my poker actions (right or wrong, lol). Here I was uncertain on both flop and turn.

Home game, 8 handed, Villain here is confusing to read, but he is definitely no idiot. Capable of big bluffs and slow-playing.

Effective stacks: 480 (for both players)

Hero: UTG, JcJs

Villain: BB

I raise to 12 (standard). UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, BB calls.

Flop (48) : Ts 8s 4s

Villain checks, Hero bets 25, folded to Villain who makes it 125. Confusion #1, my action?
Sets are possible. 2 pair possible. Flopped flush possible. Top pair possible. Big draw possible. Total air possible.
Part of my confusion was based on why did Villain bet so large? What hands would he check-raise big with here?
I felt like I really needed to see (expensive) turn to further define the hand, I call. Mistake?

Turn: (298) : 3s

Effective stacks now 350
Villain bets 50. Hero? Confusion #2, my action?
Bet sizing here completely confused me.....
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-01-2023 , 07:21 PM
I check the flop, I'm betting all my flushes and AsTx exactly. As played I fold to the raise, I think this is probably close though (?).

Call turn I guess, not much else we can do. Raise is terrible and we're getting LOL pot odds.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-01-2023 , 10:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crsseyed
Part of my confusion was based on why did Villain bet so large?.
Mate he's not the one who bet half pot into 3 opponents on a monotone board
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-02-2023 , 12:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WereBeer
I check the flop, I'm betting all my flushes and AsTx exactly. As played I fold to the raise, I think this is probably close though (?).

Call turn I guess, not much else we can do. Raise is terrible and we're getting LOL pot odds.
Agree with check flop but we shouldn’t have ATo.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-02-2023 , 01:25 AM
Agree w/ check flop. Being 4 handed on a flop like this with two V's left to act imo you really should be doing a whole lot of checking anyway, perfectly fine to bet polar here.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-02-2023 , 05:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OmahaDonk
Agree with check flop but we shouldn’t have ATo.
Fair, I don't.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-02-2023 , 10:12 AM
Is this always a flop check with overpair and flush draw?

AcAs
KcKs
QcQs
JcJs

Flop check with all 4 or just Jacks?

Don't we (almost) always have the best hand here?
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-02-2023 , 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by moxterite
Mate he's not the one who bet half pot into 3 opponents on a monotone board
My standard 4 handed, heads up I'd bet ~1/3rd flop. Flawed?

Isn't this a good flop for our hand? Almost always ahead and charging opponents for draws?
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-02-2023 , 11:21 AM
I limp in but that's me.

I'm not a huge fan of the preflop result (multiway, OOP, although admittedly a playable SPR), so I'm not so sure I would do "standard" if this is going to be the standard result (unless we're cool with that result, which we may be).

I think I'm either/or on the flop. Our hand is vulnerable and does need protection against overcards, but this ain't the greatest flop and there are lottsa hands that have massive equity against us plus could put us in a tough spot. Think I probably mostly check/evaluate.

And facing the check/raise I just fold. It's a pretty massive raise. We have no idea if our Js is any good.

On the turn, on the one hand we're getting awesome immediate odds of 7:1 which you rarely get in a NL game. On the other hand, we're drawing stone cold dead a huge amount of the time. Not gonna hate on a call given these odds tho and I probably fold to a bet on the river unless I'm getting the same ridiculous odds.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-02-2023 , 11:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crsseyed
Isn't this a good flop for our hand? Almost always ahead and charging opponents for draws?
I'm not so sure we're almost always ahead; there's a decent amount of hands in a multiway pot that could easily be ahead / have fantastic equity.

And what draws are we so worried about charging? Apart from protecting against naked overs (and I don't hate making a small bet to do so), straight draws have very few outs (due to us making a flush on some of their outs). And meanwhile any A/K/Q flush draw + over is basically flipping with us (plus could put us in a craptastic spot).

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-02-2023 , 12:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I'm not so sure we're almost always ahead; there's a decent amount of hands in a multiway pot that could easily be ahead / have fantastic equity.

And what draws are we so worried about charging? Apart from protecting against naked overs (and I don't hate making a small bet to do so), straight draws have very few outs (due to us making a flush on some of their outs). And meanwhile any A/K/Q flush draw + over is basically flipping with us (plus could put us in a craptastic spot).

GcluelessNLnoobG
(Just ran equities)

Only hands ahead of us are flopped flushes and sets. Of course he could have these but they're rare. Flop decision was very close decision for me, mainly because of his bet sizing. His check raise was very large, almost like he wanted a fold.

Yeah: flop bet was to charge for naked overs. You're right A/K/Q flush draw is close to a flip. I wanted to maintain initiative and thought those hands would just call my initial flop bet and then I could re-evaluate after turn card (this was thought process before I got check-raised)
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-02-2023 , 12:37 PM
But overcards without a flush draw will fold to a tiny bet. You've got 9 combos of sets. 4 combos of T8s...but it's multiway so some of them might have T8o. Maybe 15 combinations of flopped flushes, more than half of which you're drawing dead against. So you're losing to ~30 combinations of hands, which any one of the three opponents could easily have (give or take per opponent). Not only that but when you bet, especially as much as half pot, what hands that you beat will actually call you? The Ace of spades, probably the King of spades, and a Ten. Anything else will jettison their hand at warp speed.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-02-2023 , 06:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by moxterite
But overcards without a flush draw will fold to a tiny bet. You've got 9 combos of sets. 4 combos of T8s...but it's multiway so some of them might have T8o. Maybe 15 combinations of flopped flushes, more than half of which you're drawing dead against. So you're losing to ~30 combinations of hands, which any one of the three opponents could easily have (give or take per opponent). Not only that but when you bet, especially as much as half pot, what hands that you beat will actually call you? The Ace of spades, probably the King of spades, and a Ten. Anything else will jettison their hand at warp speed.
Thanks for your comments/

I guess I can give you the point that flop bet was too large. But I still like the idea of a flop bet, say 1/3rd pot?

Doing the math now that the hand is over..
I get (generous IMO) 21 combos on flop that beat us: A9ss, A7ss, A6ss, A5ss, A3ss, A2ss
KQss, K9ss
Q9ss
76ss, 75ss, 65ss
All sets (9)
To8o we're actually marginally ahead of/flipping
The few other possible combos assume would 3bet pre (AKss, AQss)

I get 61 combos on flop that we're ahead "hands that I beat that would call" flop bet and continue: AsJx(2), As5x(3), As3x(3), As2x(3)
KsJx(2), Ks9x(3)
AxTx(12)
KxTx(12)
QxTx(12)
JxTx(6)
T9suited(3)

Hope my math is right/Does this change flop bet correct action or is it not that simple?
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-03-2023 , 09:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crsseyed
folded to Villain who makes it 125. Confusion #1, my action?
There is no way I'm making that call. I'm either going to fold or AI. It is really read dependent on what I think V is capable of. As you describe him, I'm probably AI.

I don't know what a call does for you. Are you ever going to fold after calling? Are you hoping to hit a J?

He could be putting you on CB with AQ+, or even XT and knows you can't defend that hand vs a huge bet.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-03-2023 , 10:22 PM
Flop bet too big. Fold to flop raise. As described i call the turn expecting to be good at least 20%. Never raising because what exactly are you accomplishing but allowing him to get away from his 20% you are beating.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-03-2023 , 10:30 PM
If V has TX, you are stopping the suckout of trips or 2P or maybe an A-Q that counterfeits your 1P or makes you easily bluffed.

Taking down the $125 bet is a nice win.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-03-2023 , 10:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DEKE01
If V has TX, you are stopping the suckout of trips or 2P or maybe an A-Q that counterfeits your 1P or makes you easily bluffed.

Taking down the $125 bet is a nice win.
So 5% of the time he hits the 2 outer. Or he always folds when he is behind and always calls when he has you crushed. And now folds all bluffs putting no more money in the pot. If you have made up your mind that you will call his bet, I see no way in this hand that raising makes any sense. I think you could put this in a simulator and it would say raising is a massive punt.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-03-2023 , 10:56 PM
Not entirely sure what the multiway theory is for monotone flops, but I know we check and cbet small on monotone flops and we generally do the same thing in multiway pots, so it would stand to reason that we check and bet small in multiway pots on monotone boards.

Check or bet $10-$15 flop. Raise could be a lot of things like you mentioned. A flopped flush, draw, two pair, set.

Turn can be anything as well, but likely sets and flushes. Why sets? To buy a cheap river where he boats up (he could also do this with 2 pair). Why would flushes bet so small? To protect the sets and to trap. Also can be a weaker flush trying to get to showdown as cheap as possible. But I wouldn't think this is capped, it can very well be a higher flush, even the nut flush.

Can't fold turn for this sizing.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-04-2023 , 11:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mlark
........

Turn can be anything as well, but likely sets and flushes. Why sets? To buy a cheap river where he boats up (he could also do this with 2 pair). Why would flushes bet so small? To protect the sets and to trap. Also can be a weaker flush trying to get to showdown as cheap as possible. But I wouldn't think this is capped, it can very well be a higher flush, even the nut flush.

Can't fold turn for this sizing.
My thoughts exactly.

(get ready to torch me on my next action..)
Hero tank shoves. Reasoning:

Why such a small bet after large bet on flop? What is Villains perspective on my holding here? IMO Villain was pot controlling/"trying to see where he's at" with betting 50 into 300. I just couldn't see him doing this with nut flush as he would want to be playing for stacks so why bet 50 into 300 leaving ~300 behind? I don't see him trapping with bet of 50 as I could easily have a set here. A regular bet with nuts would be 150+ here OOP right?

Villain has to have some perspective on my holding/range, which would be a set or flush including nut flush if Villain doesn't have nuts here. Just a call here by Hero would completely define my hand as a set or non-nut flush. The way action has run I could easily have a set here, and his 50 turn bet would be a trivial call and actually a mistake by him.

If my reasoning is to raise his bet of 50, with stack sizes remaining (Hero has 350 pot is 350) isn't bet size of all-in good sizing? We don't want smaller bet and have board pair on river and be committed for our remaining stack. Also, is Villain ever folding 2nd or 3rd nuts to my shove?
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote
08-04-2023 , 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crsseyed
My thoughts exactly.

(get ready to torch me on my next action..)
Hero tank shoves. Reasoning:

Why such a small bet after large bet on flop? What is Villains perspective on my holding here? IMO Villain was pot controlling/"trying to see where he's at" with betting 50 into 300. I just couldn't see him doing this with nut flush as he would want to be playing for stacks so why bet 50 into 300 leaving ~300 behind? I don't see him trapping with bet of 50 as I could easily have a set here. A regular bet with nuts would be 150+ here OOP right?

Villain has to have some perspective on my holding/range, which would be a set or flush including nut flush if Villain doesn't have nuts here. Just a call here by Hero would completely define my hand as a set or non-nut flush. The way action has run I could easily have a set here, and his 50 turn bet would be a trivial call and actually a mistake by him.

If my reasoning is to raise his bet of 50, with stack sizes remaining (Hero has 350 pot is 350) isn't bet size of all-in good sizing? We don't want smaller bet and have board pair on river and be committed for our remaining stack. Also, is Villain ever folding 2nd or 3rd nuts to my shove?
Making a small bet when 4 flush comes out is not unreasonable.

Hard to say if villain would ever fold 2nd or 3rd nuts. In theory he probably should mix calls and folds with them as crazy as that sounds.

Actually you totally could make a very small raise to like $135 and fold the river if the board pairs and he donks. I mean, if you don't think he's going to bluff you, why not? And you can take same line with the nut flush and sets if you want to be balanced. Nut flush might call some to keep you unexploitable and if you boat up with a set you also have a clear call.

I don't think your line is horrible but I think making a small raise or just calling is slightly better.

Normally you don't have small raises with a small amount behind, but a 4 flush board is a pretty extreme situation.
1/3 confused on flop and turn Quote

      
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